Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.
But the Celtics have more chips than anyone else and thus are better equipped to play a little poker. Their hope would be that if they could get the All-Star forward here for a season, the quality and togetherness of the team around him and the way the club is supported — something that deeply impressed Clipper Blake Griffin when he saw the outpouring for Paul Pierce’s last visit as a player to the Garden — would make him want to stay.
But when it comes to dealing first-round draft picks in a package for George, the concept of gambling also comes into play.
[…] it will all come down to cost and what Indiana expects in return for a player whose proclamations now and at last February’s trade deadline, when he said he would either play for Indiana or leave for the Lakers, severely cut his value in the marketplace.
Herald: Bulpett: Celtics in best spot to land Paul George
There’s no question the Celtics have the most to offer for Paul George. They also had the most to offer for Jimmy Butler too, but Danny Ainge isn’t about to run around the league spending money like a drunk lottery winner. This might bother you, but it shouldn’t surprise you.
Here are the real questions: How much will Ainge give up for a potential one-year rental, and is this an “either-or” scenario with the pursuit of Gordon Hayward, or is Ainge trying to add both guys?
We know the Celtics get treated differently in trade talks. If I was selling a used car, I wouldn’t be in a rush to haggle if Bill Gates asked me how much I wanted for it. Hell, I’d probably jack up the price just because I know he’s got the cash.
So Ainge is probably being squeezed by these teams. But he knows know what my car is worth and he’s not paying a penny more no matter how much money is falling out of his pockets. He could have gotten Butler if he really wanted to, but he clearly didn’t. Ainge isn’t going to overpay for anything now… especially after getting scared straight in his pursuit of Justise Winslow. Ainge knows he nearly blew it that night, and that lesson is lurking in the back of his head.
Ainge has also been operating like someone who’s got another trick up his sleeve. Trading down from the top pick… not even making a token play at Butler… backing out of the George talks on draft night… something’s up.
Is it that back-channel talks have given him confidence that Hayward wants to reunite with Brad Stevens in Boston? Does he feel like he’s recreating 2007 all over again by adding Hayward and then trading for the reluctant superstar who finally agrees to come to Boston having seen the pieces come together?
In the abstract, the parallel is too perfect. A weary fan-favorite who needs help (Isaiah Thomas) watches his team add a great perimeter player to handle some of the scoring load (Hayward), which entices a guy so many people swear will go to the Lakers (George). The reality, though, is much, much more difficult, as Ryan Bernadoni explains on CelticsHub
The first thing to understand is that, while it’s technically possible for the Celtics to clear the space for a max contract free agent like Gordon Hayward or Blake Griffin and then put together enough outgoing salary to trade for George as well, this seems unlikely. The first “problem” is that to match salaries with George as an over-the-cap team Boston would have to send out multiple rotation players on top of the picks that Indiana will actually want. Boston’s rotation may be shaping up to be too deep anyway, so this isn’t necessarily a dead end, but it could mean trading more value for one season of George than the T-Wolves did for two seasons of Butler. Ideally it would need to become a multi-team trade where players like Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley become picks from other teams instead of being packaged on top of picks, but those trades can be harder to put together.
The larger problem would be the luxury tax. In 2018 the team would want to re-sign Isaiah Thomas and Paul George, meaning that just the foursome of those two plus Hayward and Al Horford would have them around the tax line. Filling out the rest of the roster would be prohibitively expensive; potentially reaching $100M just in tax payments. The team could move on from Thomas, but I don’t know if anyone is ready to go quite that “positionless” yet. The long-term tax implications look so dire that I would say this is an either-or decision between George and a max free agent, or a three-from-four from George, a max free agent, Thomas, and Horford.
The either/or scenario is just as interesting because the Celtics could try to hold onto George by clearing enough cap space to renegotiate and extend him, giving him more money in Boston than he could get as a free agent. They could do something like give him a 2+1 deal, roll the dice with him, Horford, and a re-signed Isaiah Thomas while also giving him a chance to bail when he’s 29 or 30 if he hates it in Boston or they fail to contend. By then, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will hopefully have gotten close enough to their full potential to take over should George leave.
There a lot of way this can go, and Ainge isn’t beyond taking any chances. Maybe Paul George is the backup plan. Maybe he’s the primary target. Maybe the Celtics think they can get Hayward to agree to less than the max and suddenly new possibilities arise.
No matter how this ultimately goes, Ainge has the chips and the balls to go all in if he wants. The question is… when will the pot be big enough to push his stack into the middle?
Related links: CSNNE: Report: Celtics could land George if they sign Hayward
Page 2: “The Process” vs. the process
It’s entirely fitting that the 2017 NBA Draft turned on a deal between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers. For the last four years, the franchises have mirrored one another in funhouse fashion, reflecting back an inverted image of the other’s rebuilding project.
They both chased the same goal of securing the key player (or players) who would lead them to a run of sustained success, and each accumulated an admirable amount of assets to make it happen. What’s made all of this fascinating to observe from afar was how wildly different they were in methodology. While the Sixers piled up losses and lottery odds, the Celtics built a solid roster on top of their bundle of draft picks.
Even in the zero-sum game of roster management, there could not have been two more different approaches, or more different NBA personas than their respective architects: Sam Hinkie and Danny Ainge.
SB Nation: Time will tell for the Sixers and Celtics
This is a typically fantastic piece from Paul Flannery looking at the distinctly different approaches of the Philadelphia 76’ers and the Boston Celtics. My stance has been pretty clear: I have agreed with most of Danny Ainge’s moves and non-moves as he’s rebuilt this roster in the post-Big 3 era. While there have been some questions about his later round draft picks, the team’s success and continued ability to balance winning now with the future is remarkable.
Philadelphia, however, has made a mockery of team-building. The overboard tanking made the Sixers a joke of a franchise, costing the league revenue and creating a culture of losing that became toxic enough for agents to publicly state their players wouldn’t take Philly’s money.
I’m about as anti-Hinkie a person as you’ll find. I don’t find any celebration or vindication in their current state because they still haven’t done anything yet. They have a potentially great center in Joel Embiid but he can’t stay healthy. They selected Ben Simmons and HE missed his entire rookie season. Now they’ve got Markelle Fultz, who the consensus deems a potential franchise-changer, but the man running the franchise that could have drafted him saw fit to let a division rival have him.
On paper, Philadelphia has a bunch of names that could be dangerous some day. They’ve also got a long history of losing, guys with sketchy injury histories, and no real veteran guidance. They are relying on a bunch of 19-to-23-year-olds to police themselves over the long slog of losing NBA basketball. All that talent is great but it can end up being like a helicopter without a tail rotor… it can look great on the ground but it’ll do nothing but spin around uncontrollably once it tries to take off.
All those young men are used to being the star player and now they have to operate in a system where they have to share. Embiid, Saric, Simmons, and Fultz are all angling for huge contracts and endorsement deals. Hell, Fultz was already hawking watches and clothing on his Instagram page minutes after being drafted. They all want the spotlight. They all want the Footlocker ads, the shoe deals, and the cameos in music videos. And those are all things you get when you’re “the star.”
You can’t have four guys under 23 competing to become the team’s big star, though. Youth is notoriously impulsive, emotional, and irrational. Without strong veteran leadership, Philly runs a strong risk of watching four lions fight for control of the pride.
This is why I like Boston’s approach so much. The rookies brought into the Celtics locker room are dealing with Al Horford, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Avery Bradley. They have four distinctly strong personalities to guide them and keep them in check. Even a strong personality like Marcus Smart has to be held accountable to those veterans.
Think of Smart’s tantrum on the bench after getting blown out in Washington. In a different setting, it may have festered. In Boston there was not only an immediate apology, the incident then faded away into distant memory (admit it, you forgot all about that, didn’t you?).
No rebuild is perfect, but I think Boston’s has gone as well as any rebuild can. To me, Ainge has, with an assist from Billy King, achieved a perfect balance of winning and building at the same time. And while we can debate how differently it would have gone had the Nets had the wherewithal to attach SOME protections to their picks, this is our reality.
I’d rather be Boston than Philadelphia. I wouldn’t trade places with them right now if given the chance.
And Finally…
Something to watch as the offseason plays out…
ESPN's @ChrisBHaynes is on @SportsCenter now. His top FA storyline? Chris Paul and the #Rockets. "Serious chance of luring Chris Paul away."
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) June 24, 2017
Houston would have to move a lot of salary if it really wants to lure Chris Paul. While I think this is all posturing and Paul will return to the Clippers, it’s worth watching what Houston does.
If the Celtics miss on Hayward and pass on George, they could go an alternate route of using their cap space for unbalanced trades. If the Rockets are dumping, let’s say, Patrick Beverly or Eric Gordon, then the Celtics might be interested in acquiring him and then packaging a couple of their current guards to fill another position of need or acquire future assets. Or they could just hop in as a third team in a trade to pick up some stray salary and a pick or two for their troubles.
It’s going to be a wild July… a million things could happen, so keep an eye on the whole league. A team with cap space can be a major player in just about anything that happens.
The rest of the links:
Globe: Jayson Tatum’s father taught him the game, then game-planned against him | Boston has no Chick-Fil-A and Fultz noticed
CSNNE: Blakely: Tatum’s character separates him from many of the other rookies | Did Suns ask Josh Jackson to cancel his Celtics workout to keep him from Boston?
ESPN Boston: Pelton mail: Which rookies are most ready to contribute?
The Olympian: Isaiah Thomas focuses on family, and Zeke-End fans treat him like their own
ProJo: Kevin McNamara: PC’s Cooley a big fan of Celtics’ top pick
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