Your Morning Dump… Where our “best” lineup has been getting torched

celtics

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Celtics prevailed thanks largely to Isaiah Thomas’ affinity for the rim, but still might have real concerns with their “IT-and-D” unit: Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder and Al Horford.

In that group, Stevens knows what he has: a potential offensive rocketship that only needs to hold its own at the other end of the court. The problem so far has been that the Celtics defense has gotten shredded with that lineup, as well as with most lineups that include Thomas, Bradley and Smart. Theoretically, that trio could be great. Smart can guard anyone on the perimeter, Thomas destroys opponents almost nightly, and Bradley, a first team all-defense member, adds to his game every year. But reality has produced a distressing lack of stops and defensive rebounds when those players — who are all good! — share the court.

[…] It’s not crazy to envision a day when Boston’s super-small lineups force mountains of turnovers, create loads of transition offense, and ride down a slide of layups and 3-pointers. But right now, that’s all just a dream. While it’s too early for Stevens to stop trying to make things work, the Celtics defense got diced when Thomas, Bradley, Smart and Crowder shared the court last season, too. While the offense was still powerful enough to make that quartet a net positive, the problems — especially rebounding — have worsened this season, and Boston hasn’t forced nearly as many turnovers. With Evan Turner gone, Stevens doesn’t trust as many other lineup options. He has been bullish about the super-small groups, and they haven’t worked yet.

MassLive: IT-and-D problem? Boston Celtics’ three-guard lineups have been getting shredded

Coming into this season, the Celtics “IT & D” lineup was really expected to be one unleashed to break teams’ souls in a torrent of turnovers, transition, and Isaiah Thomas acrobatic finishes. It was supposed to be the basketball equivalent of shifting into 5th gear, hitting the gas, and dusting some poor fool on a straightaway. In today’s NBA world of “lineups of death,” this group has mostly been the death of us.

The latest statistics show Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Crowder, and Horford having played 36 minutes together over seven games, which is a very small sample size. Injuries to three of the main components, Smart, Horford, and Crowder, have limited this lineups ability to jell, which is something we need to keep in mind when looking at this. However, this group is also a -12 over that stretch, good for the fourth-worst lineup the Celtics have trotted out there so far this season.

Amazingly, the problem for this lineup has been the defense. They’ve scored 81 points as a group, the third best total of the year so far. They’ve got a stellar offensive rating of 112.4. These guys can put up points.

But their defensive rating is 136.5. That’s their second-worst defensive lineup… and it just so happens to include all of their best defensive players. So… what the hell is going on here?

This is where the rebounding comes in. Their overall rebounding percentage is 39.3%. Their defensive rebounding percentage is 55.6%. Opponents are averaging 16 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes. This lineup is getting decimated on the boards and it’s leading to either easy put-backs or kick-outs for 3. Opponents are averaging 45.5% from 3 against this lineup and shooting 51.7% overall.

Size was always going to be the issue with these guys. It’s turning out to be their undoing. Things like Saric working Bradley in the post without any help will work themselves out as this unit adjusts. But unless they finish off defensive possessions with rebounds, this group is doomed.

We won’t see Brad Stevens get away from these guys any time soon. His m.o. seems to be using November and December to test out his hunches and gather data on what would work moving forward. It could be as simple as going more traditional. A lineup with Amir Johnson and without Marcus Smart is a team-best +25 over 113 minutes. Opponents shoot 43.3% against the Johnson lineup and 30.5% from 3. Their rebounding percentage is 48.6% and their defensive rebound percentage is 76.4%. Opponents average 11 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes against the Johnson lineup.

The rebounding numbers still aren’t ideal, but they never will be with this team. The small lineup, though, might be too small for its own good. Stevens will roll with this squad longer but something is definitely going to have to change. It could be something as simple as forcing more turnovers than they have been, thus avoiding the need to even rebound the ball. That -12 could turn into plus just with some more swarming perimeter D that touches off some fast breaks. Again, that lineup CAN score, and that’s going to help keep this experiment alive for a little while longer. But the numbers are trending a bad way.

Page 2: Stevens addresses IT’s gripes about playing time

“We’ve talked about it, like I do with all of our guys, especially the guys who are big in the rotation,” the Celtics coach said before Thomas took off with a 37-point performance that included 12 straight fourth quarter points in the Celtics’ 107-106 win against the 76ers. “There will be days when it will be very consistent, and there will be a time or two when I go with my gut. They know that.

“Anybody can (speak up). The key is, sometimes you feel those last few minutes of the third quarter are going to be important moving forward, especially based on how your team is playing. You have to make that decision: Are young going to take him out earlier in the third like (Friday) and put him back in a little bit earlier, or are you going to play him through until the two- or one-minute mark in the third, get him his rest up until the seven or six (of the fourth).”

Herald: Isaiah Thomas, Brad Stevens go fourth

As I said in the most recent Locked On Celtics podcast, I love Isaiah’s desire to play every minute of every game. That’s what he’s supposed to want to do. Brad Stevens’ job is to play him the appropriate amount of minutes without breaking his star player.

Compare Stevens and his tone to, say, Byron Scott… who is really one of the worst coaches around. Scott has a “my way or the highway” attitude and it shows. Stevens has a “my way, but we’re going to discuss it and it’ll probably still be my way but let’s see what you’ve got to say” attitude. As long as you’re talking to your players in the NBA, you’re probably going to be OK.

Another way to be OK is to win, and it’s something the Celtics are finally doing (12-8, 7 wins in their last 10 games, 3rd seed in the East, 2 games out of 1st), but it’s been less pristine than we thought it would be. Struggle-W’s against Sacramento and Philly are OK, but they do little to bury discontent… especially when Isaiah can look at the Sixers game and tell Brad you know I might have been able to do this against Detroit if I had more time. 

But it’s cool for now. As long as the Celtics keep slogging out wins as they figure their shit out, this isn’t a problem. With a stretch of games that includes the Rockets, Raptors, Thunder, and Spurs coming up, though, Stevens could be in for some tough decisions that could be met with some more comments.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

And Finally…

Draymond Green is still kicking people…

I’ve been a fan of Draymond Green’s but this is just stupid shit. The league should, and probably will, review this and it may choose to punish him… again. At this point, each of these incidents should cost him a game. Eventually, he’ll be sick of losing game checks.

But hold on… maybe I’m being too harsh here. Let’s look at this from a different angle.

Tough call…

The rest of the links:

Globe: Celtics hold off 76’ers  |  Sunday Notes: Kawhi Leonard and his efforts to be more vocal for the Spurs

Herald: Jeff Green looking to work some Magic  |  Celtics, Thomas, go fourth with win over Sixers

CSNNE: Sixers success against C’s defense shows  Boston has room to grow  |  C’s edge Sixers  |  Thomas becoming one of league’s best in 4th quarter

ESPN Boston: Brad Stevens’ advice: Buy league pass and watch Isaiah Thomas

MassLive: C’s enjoyed some Coronas after beating Sixers  |  Isaiah’s 37 points, huge 4th quarter, helps hold off Sixers

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