Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.
There is nothing new to report on the question of whether the Celtics will getTyler Zeller and/or Jared Sullinger signed to extensions of their rookie contracts before the Oct. 31 deadline. And it’s looking like things will remain that way.
According to league sources, the Celts are really only interested in locking up the pair if they can get a deal that is very favorable to the club.
Even if they let the two play out this season without a guarantee for 2016-17, the C’s can make them restricted free agents (having the ability to match any offers from other clubs) by giving qualifying offers — $3,695,169 for Zeller and $3,270,004 for Sullinger.
The Celtics clearly want to retain as much flexibility as possible heading into next offseason, and the feeling is that if either of the big men plays exceedingly well, the team will be happy to pay for his value.
Boston Herald – Celtics notebook: Exensions unlikely for duo
So it looks as if Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller will go through training camp and the preseason without extensions on their rookie deals. It’s not a terrible approach as highlighted above, especially for Sullinger who didn’t report to camp in the best shape. He also hasn’t played particularly well in the preseason, save for last night’s game against the New York Knicks. Zeller on the other hand, is a more interesting case. He’s their starting center and if nothing else, is a solid and consistent sever footer. I’m curious as to what type of contract he could fetch in the open market, although the best way to approach his case is to match any offer he gets in restricted free agency. The one thing Ainge doesn’t want to do is tighten his cap flexibility for the future, as early as possibly next summer. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sullinger is moved or not retained at all, but Zeller would be good to keep here.
On Page 2, the C’s are fantastically average
At a team level, however, averagecan mean death. The expression “treadmill of mediocrity” is instructive here — a reference to the difficulties inherent in climbing from the middling quagmire. But while the perceptionof average is slightly more negative than its mathematical definition, it’s also a potentially exploitable advantage. Most teams are built with a mix of good and bad players. The great players are exceedingly difficult to find, but players who exist within the middle tiers — the serviceable majority — are much more common. As such, there’s great power to be had in a team’s ability to replace their bad players with average ones.
This helps explain why projections for the Boston Celtics have been so rosy. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s win estimates are based on player projections (a 50/50 blend of Box Plus-Minus and ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus). By their estimates, Marcus Smart stands to be the Celtics’ best player this season, worth about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s just below the level of what most plus-minus practitioners would consider a star.
The reason the starless Celtics are projected to win 48 games is because nine of their other 14 players have a projected value of -0.5 or better. That essentially means Boston can build an entire rotation of average-to-above-average players. A completely average team would project to win about half their games over the course of a season. If you throw in the few slightly better-than-average players Boston boasts— Smart, Johnson, Lee, Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk —tacking on six or seven extra wins suddenly doesn’t sound so farfetched.
SI.com – NBA’s Power of Average: How teams can improve without chasing stars
Ever wonder how so many predictions have the Celtics winning 48-50+ games this year? Well the above piece explains it pretty thoroughly and differently. I’m not sure how many games this team will win but I am sure that they are still difficult to peg. They will still be the beneficiaries of geography, but that’s not to say they won’t earn their record. They appear, as the post says, average. But as we’ve seen with a Brad Stevens coached team, we should all expect more. Don’t be surprised if they do wind up winning 48 games this year.
And finally, Ainge could sign two max players next summer
Boston does not have an established star, but with their depth, the Celtics could garner as high as a 4-seed in the East playoffs if everything goes right for them and wrong for their competitors. They project for $18 million or so in cap space with the non-guaranteed contracts of Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko and cap holds for Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, and their myriad 2016 first-rounders on the books. Waiving Johnson and Jerebko by July 3, 2016 will open up another $17 million in space, and another $12 million would be available by renouncing Zeller and Sullinger, assuming they aren’t given rookie extensions this fall. The C’s could potentially offer two premium free agents the chance to join forces with Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Kelly Olynyk.
SI.com – Five NBA teams best positioned to take advantage of 2016 free agency
Assuming a handful of points, technically yes, Danny Ainge could sign a couple of max players. He’s positioned his team to just be in the race for the prime free agents, and that’s all you can ask your GM to do, as a fan. Now, you can convince me that Ainge will undoubtedly go after Kevin Durant, Al Horford and any other star player, but convincing me they’ll sign here is a whole other animal. I’d even be shocked if they made a visit to Boston or even returned a phone call. Or text. We’re a long way away from that for now, but just let it simmer for a while.
The rest of the links:
ESPN Boston – The Celtics and rising expectations
Boston Globe – Will the Celtics take the next step this season? | Celtics hope to improve 3-point shooting
Boston Herald – Celtics make up for NY stinker
CSNNE – Ainge: Look for Thomas to keep coming off bench for Celtics | Lee fitting right in as regular season nears | Celtics start strong, hold off Knicks starters late, 99-85 | Stars, studs and duds: Rozier consistently making big shots |Stevens may have found his starting lineup | Sullinger makes most of minutes with Olynyk out | Crowder wins physical matchup with ‘Melo
WEEI – STUDS AND DUDS: SULLINGER, CELTICS CRUISE PAST KNICKS
MassLive – Boston Celtics rumors 2015: Danny Ainge ‘really excited’ about team, hopes players are smart enough to handle depth | Boston Celtics notes: Marcus Smart’s point guard skills have surprised David Lee | Jared Sullinger strong, Marcus Smart dishes 9 assists as Boston Celtics hold off New York Knicks in preseason, 99-85 | WATCH Boston Celtics, New York Knicks analysis: Marcus Smart impresses, Jared Sullinger’s role, more | Boston Celtics notes and analysis: Marcus Smart shows off playmaking progress against New York Knicks | New York Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis once had cornrows: ‘All the girls loved it.’
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