The Arizona Diamondbacks finished 2015 without a winning record for the fourth consecutive season, but there were positive signs of growth to build upon this winter. Sure, they posted a 79-83 record and ended up 13 games behind the National League West champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but this looked everything like a team potentially on the rise.
With young offensive stars Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock leading the way, Arizona combined to slash .264/.324/.414 last year, all of which landed in the top-three of the National League. Despite getting starting pitcher Patrick Corbin back from Tommy John surgery about midway through the year, the biggest issue for the Dbacks was pitching, as the team’s ERA (4.04) and WHIP (1.33) landed in the bottom half of the NL.
So, the front office was determined to stretch their budget for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher in the free agent market. Target no. 1? Johnny Cueto.
After he denied a six-year, $120 million offer (which could the best offer he’ll get all winter), Tony La Russa, Dave Stewart and company quickly had to regroup and make a decision. It’d probably take around $150 million to sign Cueto, but with other (and much better) elite options still available, why not shoot for the moon?
Instead of adding on another $20-30 million to Cueto’s offer, they stole Zack Greinke from right under the noses of their division rivals. Not only did this agreement immediately strengthen Arizona’s biggest weakness, but it also kept him away from the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, who were seen as the two finalists for his services.
And that was before the Winter Meetings!
Once the ink dried on that six-year, $206.5 million deal, we heard about how the budget was stretched — remember, they opened 2015 with the 24th-highest payroll at just north of $91 million — and any other upgrades would have to come via trade.
Well, amongst a flurry of activity on Tuesday night in Nashville, they landed Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 top overall pick, shortstop Dansby Swanson. In the matter of approximately one week, the Dbacks went from being a clear third fiddle to LA and San Francisco in the NL West to being mentioned as favorites to win the division thanks to these bold moves and an already top-performing offense…but at what cost?
It’s one thing to overpay for a free agent because there are ways to make up for that. Sure, it’ll stretch the comfort level of ownership more than they’d like, but the initial excitement from fans will likely bring in more revenue — especially at the beginning. However, Arizona is taking a huge leap of faith by also trading away a few players who were perceived as big pieces of their future in order to try and win right now.
@mmusico8 Padres of last winter meetings and Marlins of 2011 if it doesn’t.
— Mike Vamosi (@MikeVmos) December 9, 2015
We’ve seen this story before. Heck, the Dbacks watched general manager A.J. Preller’s plans crash and burn with the San Diego Padres last season. Now, instead of continuing to make bold moves, he’s the guy trying unload some high-priced players because the organization is already going in a different direction.
Getting another starting pitcher like Miller had to happen before Opening Day after landing Greinke, but Arizona is basically putting all its eggs in one basket, hoping these moves will pay off in the short-term:
Dbacks look great on paper for this window they have, but they've now given up three first rounders in Toussaint, Swanson and the 2016 pick.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) December 9, 2015
They have a young core in place at the big-league level that the front office thinks can be competitive for the next few years, but if something goes wrong, there aren’t a whole lot of reinforcements available in their farm system. Obviously, solely depending on first-round draft picks isn’t a strategy any organization uses, but you don’t see many rebuilding teams give them up, either.
MLB Trade Rumors collected some initial reactions from the Miller deal, and it appears most feel the Braves got the better side of it (they probably did). Whether Arizona made a second move via trade or free agency, the price was going to be steep. Teams with young pitching available know the astronomical free-agent prices out there and are rightfully taking advantage of others in need of hurlers under organizational control.
At the end of the day, though, Stewart reminds us that only one thing matters:
"Was it an overpay? Not if it means we're going to win," Stewart said.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) December 9, 2015
As legendary Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis would say, “Just win, baby.”
Did the Diamondbacks mortgage a good chunk of their future and any kind of payroll flexibility to try winning in the near-term? You bet they did. However, they also feel that going all in now is worth the risk. Let’s just hope ownership allows them another shot in 2017 instead of immediately tearing it down like the Miami Marlins and the Padres have done recently if things don’t go as planned in 2016.
What if it works, though? Then, the record-breaking contract to Greinke and lack of recent first-round picks in their farm system will be more than justified. Having patience and knowing when to slam the gas pedal to the floor are two of the biggest challenges for MLB teams going through a rebuild — whether it’s a big one or small one. We’ve seen teams like the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and Houston Astros all be patient through some lean years before getting rewarded with postseason appearances in 2015 after making the necessary moves at the right time to put them over the top.
The Diamondbacks have gone through a number of changes in the front office and the dugout since last making the playoffs. Clearly, they think they’ve been patient enough and the positive signs from the offense in 2014 has convinced them now is the time to push the pedal to the floor.
At this point in the winter, they’re one of the MLB’s biggest winners, but as we’ve seen in recent years, being winners on paper doesn’t provide any guarantee of being on top at the end of October. Now, it’ll be up to Greinke, Miller and the rest of the roster to live up to expectations come April.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter: @mmusico8.
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