It’s a funny thing, how once you’ve drafted your fantasy team breaking news goes from interesting and exciting, to terrifying. Training camp claims a casualty seemingly every day, and you just hope the hamstrings of your high round draft picks stay in one piece, that their ACL’s are AOK. This fact of NFL life also brings opportunity to those who are poised to benefit from it.
The potential for injury is a consideration in every pick you make. Most of the time we’re just trying to avoid it. If you’re shying away from Jamaal Charles in the second round, it’s not because of what he does on the field. If you’re taking 3 WR’s in the first three rounds it’s probably because, at least in part, you think they’re safer. If we could just make the right picks to avoid injury, we’d be set. And, if we ever got that good with our predictions we should probably do something more beneficial to humanity than Fantasy Football.
Instead of pretending we possess such a crystal ball when we make our picks, what we should probably do is acknowledge that we don’t know the future and make choices accordingly. We want to build lineups that instead of being fragile, snapping like a hamstring in week 4 of the preseason, we should build antifragile lineups.
Antifragility is a concept Shawn Siegle mentions in his “ZeroRB bible”. Rather than having a lineup that is so dependent on the health of 1 or 2 guys (especially at an injury prone position like RB), we’d rather benefit from the chaos. A lineup that is poised to take advantage of inevitable injuries at RB makes the best of the season’s unpredictability.
What we are looking for are candidates that are relatively cheap, provide stand alone value in a pinch, and could become a lot more. The following candidates are some of the players who are not slated as seasonlong starters but stand a great chance of helping your team should a little chaos ensue.
DeAngelo Williams (pick 89)
While the odometer readout is likely too great for Williams to have every day driver potential, he filled in exceptionally last year and looks to have the chance to repeat that performance this year. Depending on your assessment of Bell, he could play much more than the first 4 weeks. The primary question seems to be what price is reasonable to pay for a back whose value could plummet with Bell’s return. I would take him over other backs with an uncertain workload like Yeldon (pick 83) and Ivory (pick 78).On the other hand, he doesn’t compare well against starters like Gordon(pick 70). The spot where I really start to struggle is Gio Bernard, who is actually going just behind Ivory at 80.
Arian Foster (pick 105)
The Miami backfield conundrum may shape up to be the Gio & Jeremy Hill predicament of 2016. Although Dolphins Head Coach Adam Gase has been gushing about Foster of late, I don’t think anyone expects this salty veteran to be able to shoulder 200 carry load. In my estimation, the role that Foster best fits at this stage of his career is the 3rd down pass catcher. We’ve also heard from Dolphins camp that Kenyan Drake has been struggling with pass protection. Foster’s signing could be more of an indictment against him than Ajayi. If you’re taking an early shot on Bell I think Foster makes a great compliment to him, and you may get much more than you bargain for. Not to mention that his value may not run counter to your Bell, which is likely if you’re taking DeAngelo.
Charles Sims (pick 115)
In a banner year for Doug Martin, Charles Sims still gave you 5 weeks of over 10 points in a standard league. He has 80th percentile speed and 86th percentile burst metrics, which contributed to 4 long runs last season. He is highly efficient with a production premium score from player profiler.com of +19.4, which ranked him 4th in the league (meaning that in an apples to apples comparison of performance in a specific situation like 3rd down, redzone, or garbage time he was more productive than average). Should he come into a larger role, he’s behind a good Oline in an offense that ranks 8th in run plays. He’s a weekly potential flex play with the possibility of becoming a starting RB. Remember, 2015 was a big year for starter Doug Martin. This could be the floor of what Sims produces.
Tevin Coleman (pick 127)
For a player who doesn’t need an injury to be productive the price seems reasonable. Last year Coleman was actually named the starter. Injury was what gave birth to the opportunity that launched Freeman’s Cinderella campaign. After Week 8 Freeman never again sniffed the 100 yard mark, and Coleman the drumbeat for Coleman has been gaining momentum in camp. It’s largely about price here, because I’m not in love with anything I’ve seen. But, I think he has a better chance to help your team Karlos “Dadbod” Williams or Derrick Henry.
Bilall Powell (pick 150)
This versatile pass catcher shared a backfield with Chris Ivory in 2015. Late in the season Powell carved out a role for himself as the Jets offense seemed to find its identity mostly in the passing game. Ivory put up a career year, stayed healthy, and the Jets only retained one of these two players. In Bilall Powell, while I don’t see a special “one in a million talent”, I do see a player who is very well suited to the system he is in. The Jets did bring in Matt Forte.I see the two of them, as reported from camp, sharing touches. Forte is no spring chicken and if he requires any time off Powell’s could be late round gold. Khiry Robinson’s role in this offense is unclear, but last year with a capable Chris Ivory, I did not see a team that wanted to pound it in the redzone. Powell works in this system.
Honorable Mention
Jerick McKinnon (pick 161) For now, his prodigious measurables (90th percentile or higher in the 40yd dash, overall speed, burst, agility, and bench press) will be side lined behind Adrian Peterson. At the same time, the Vikings have a problem. Their Quarterback works better out of the shotgun and AP, the centerpiece of their offense, works much better with a QB under center. No doubt the team would like to see more synergy in the skill set of two of their key players. Enter Jerick McKinnon, a more natural compliment to Bridgewater. With the signing of Treadwell, who figures to provide a redzone target, signs point to the Vikings of the future being a more open style of offense. Time is not on the side of Peterson, and the transition could begin this year with McKinnon playing a Riddicklike role. If Peterson should require time off, McKinnon would likely share work with the plodding Asiata. Expecting McKinnon to have the backfield to himself is sort like expecting it to be 2005. Any role in this capable rushing offense should be fantasy relevant, especially in any sort of ppr league.
These players all (with the exception of McKinnon) currently inhabit a role in their offense. And, should a starter on these teams go down, you’ve very likely got similar production. So, they can give you something if Ezekiel Elliot turns out not to be the second coming of Emmitt Smith or if you’re David Johnson turns out to be in 2016 what Jeremy Hill was in 2015. And, if you hit with those first few rounds and then these players’ roles expand for any reason your ticket to the playoffs may be punched.
You don’t need to draft Doug Martin to benefit from Chris Sims, and you certainly don’t need Lev Bell to see value in D Williams. It’s an unfortunate fact that when your guy’s knee is that Breaking News alert that you’ve probably lost some production. If you’re only grabbing the Starks to your Lacy, and the Hillman to your Anderson, you’re likely to end up with a situation where neither guy is giving you what you want . At best you’ve secured 4th place, because there is a floor to that philosophy, but also a low ceiling. So, think “opportunity” when you’re thinking about what could happen to your roster, and snake your buddy’s handcuff in the draft (if he’s one of these guys). Try to create a roster that takes advantage of the chaos that IS coming.
Names Worth a Mention
Devontae Booker
A touchdown machine in college. If it becomes true that CJ was only ever anything under peak Peyton, this guy could break out
DeAndre Washington
Washington has passing back skills and he’s behind the least efficient RB in the NFL, who is also an upright “hit me please” runner
Kenny Bell
If you believe Vincent Jackson is done, he’s the heir apparent. Playing opposite of Mike Evans isn’t a bad gig
Cameron Brate
If you don’t think ASJ pulls his head out of the sand, or whatever else it may be in, this guy could be it.In college, Jamieson was known for using the TE in his offense.
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