The OHL Western Conference has been the stronger conference all season. They boast three of the top teams in the entire Canadian Hockey League, with Erie (2) London (4) and Kitchener (8) ranking in the top 10. It’s going to be a dogfight to win the conference, but the team that does likely ends up representing the OHL in the Memorial Cup.
Note: for team previews, “GD” will refer to “goal differential”, and “est FenClose” will refer to the team’s “Estimated Fenwick Close”, as posted by the always amazing Prospect Stats dot com.
1 ERIE OTTERS (52-15-1, 3.85 goals/game, +79 GD, 56.1% Est FenClose) vs
8 SAGINAW SPIRIT (24-36-8, 3.04 goals/game, -72 GF, 45.8% Est FenClose)
Erie is fresh off of their third straight 50 win season, making them the first OHL team to accomplish the feat. But the Otters have been unable to turn that regular season success into a Memorial Cup berth, losing twice to the eventual OHL champion. To avoid that fate this year, they are going to need strong performances from their two star forwards, Dylan Strome (ARI 2015 1st), and Alex DeBrincat (2016 eligible). Last year, these two stars struggled in the playoffs compared to their insane regular seasons. This year, they don’t have Connor McDavid to bail them out. With the experience they gained going to the OHL finals in 2015, they know what to expect and should be more prepared for the grind.
Defensively, the Otters are strong, lead by Leafs 2015 2nd rounder Travis Dermott and undrafted Darren Raddysh. The two combined for 83 points in 117 games. They bring experience, both having been a part of all three 50 win seasons. In net, the Otters boast one of the best in the league in undrafted overager Devin Williams. His .915 save percentage ranked second in the league. He, too, brings big game experience, a veteran of 33 playoff games in the past two seasons.
For Saginaw, they have some nice players but won’t do much to slow down the slippery Otters. Mitchell Stephens, a Tampa 2nd rounder, will be charged with the impossible task of trying to shut down the Otters top line. Stephens only played 39 games this year, missing time with injuries and the World Juniors. He finished with 38 points, tied for fifth on the team, and his 0.97 points per game topped the Spirit attack.
The Spirit have two big draft eligible players in defensemen Markus Niemelainen and Keaton Middleton. Both are 6’6″ monsters who play physical, but don’t have a ton of puck skills. They will have their hands full trying to slow the Erie attackers.
Prediction: Saginaw just doesn’t have the talent to keep up, Erie cruises in four.
2 SARNIA STING (42-19-7, 3.71 goals/game, +62 GD, 54.4% Est FenClose) vs
7 SAULT STE MARIE GREYHOUNDS (33-27-8, 3.53 goals/game, +8 GD, 48.5 Est FenClose)
Sarnia’s had a very good team all year, but it was two key mid-season additions which pushed them over the top. The first was a smaller move, getting overager Matt Mistele (LAK 2014 6th) from the Oshawa Generals. Mistele brings Memorial Cup experience and provided solid depth scoring, chipping in 41 points in 42 games with the Sting, mostly on the second and third lines. The big move for Sarnia was getting Flyers 1st rounder Travis Konecny. Konecny is a bonafide star, crossing the 100 point barrier in just 60 games. With the Sting, he put up 1.8 points per game. Those two additions helped the Sting become the fourth best possession team in the league with a 54.36% estimated Fenwick close, per Prospect-Stats.
Sarnia also boasts New Jersey’s 2015 6th overall pick Pavel Zacha. The big, skilled Czech winger put up 64 points in 51 games this year, and found instant chemistry once Konecny was added to his line.
Defensively, Jakob Chychrun is a beast. The 2016 draft eligible is a potential top five pick this summer. His 49 points (in 62 games) placed him fourth among all OHL defencemen in scoring. He also helped Sarnia to the best PK in the league, with a sparkling 84.2% kill rate.
Sault Ste. Marie is in a transition year after going for it last year. With the graduation of defensive workhorse and team captain Darnell Nurse to the pros, Gustav Bouramman, who was drafted in the 7th round last year by Minnesota, has stepped up for the Greyhounds. He played in all 68 games and picked up 46 points, tied for fifth in the OHL among d-men.
Offensively, Devils third rounder Blake Speers leads the way. Speers lead the team with 26 goals and 48 assists. Many of those assists were on goals scored by Zachary Senyshyn. Senyshyn, the third of the Bruins first round picks last summer, scored 45 goals, and is deadly accurate in close with his shot.
Past those two, the Greyhounds have three solid draft eligible wingers; Boris Katchouk, Jack Kopacka, and Tim Gettinger. The best scorer of the trio is Katchouk, who put up 51 points. Kopacka and the 6’6″ Gettinger each had nice seasons, with 43 and 39 points respectively.
Prediction: The Soo take a game at home but Sarnia wins in five.
3 LONDON KNIGHTS (51-14-3, 4.69 goals/game, +138 GD, 54.1% Est FenClose) vs
6 OWEN SOUND ATTACK (32-25-11, 3.04 goals/game, -12 GF, 54.0% Est FenClose)
London is looking to make its fourth trip to the Memorial Cup in the last five years. The Knights, however, cannot afford to take any team lightly, particularly this Attack group. Owen Sound finished the season with the 54.03% estimated Fenwick Close, sixth in the OHL and just one spot below the Knights. What hurt the Attack was subpar goaltending, as starter Michael McNiven struggled to just a .902 save percentage on the year.
For Owen Sound, to have a chance they are going to have to keep the Knights top guns, Christian Dvorak, Mitch Marner and Matt Tkachuk under two points a game – which seems like an easy enough task, until you realize that each of the three averaged that during the regular season. The best way to do that is to control the puck and make them play defence.
Veterans like Bryson Cianfrone and Petrus Palmu, the two leader scorers for the Attack, are going to have to step up and do their best to keep the puck away from the Knights stars. On the back end, the strong top four of Santino Centorame, Thomas Schemitsch, Damir Sharipzyanov and Jacob Friend have to be able to transition the puck quickly and get it out of the Owen Sound end.
A big key for the Attack will be staying out of the box. The Knights have an incredible power play, which converted at 29.1% this season, by far the best in the OHL.
On top of London’s stars they also boast one of the deepest teams in the league. When you can have a guy like Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Kole Sherwood on your fourth line, you have some serious depth. Owen Sound doesn’t have that luxury, relying on 16 year old Nick Suzuki for depth scoring.
Prediction: Owen Sound finds a way to win a couple games, but the Knights take it in six.
4 KITCHENER RANGERS (44-17-7, 3.75 goals/game, +60 GD, 55% Est FenClose) vs
5 WINDSOR SPITFIRES (40-21-7, 3.71 goals/game, +53 GD, 52.7% Est FenClose)
Of the first round matchups, this one has the potential to be the most exciting and one with the best chance for an upset.
Kitchener doesn’t have a ton of elite level talent like an Erie or London but they do have a talented group. They finished second in the league with a 54.95% estimated Fenwick Close. Leading the Rangers are Coyotes 2nd round pick Ryan MacInnis, who has 81 points in 59 games, and Leafs 2015 2nd rounder Jeremy Bracco, who’s been fantastic since leaving the NCAA in October. The two work very well together: Bracco is a high end playmaker, and MacInnis has a shot reminiscent of his dad Al’s. Look for them to give Windsor fits.
Draft eligible Adam Mascherin provides very good secondary scoring. He’s short and stocky but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring 35 goals, or dishing out 44 assists. For whatever reason, he hasn’t got much respect in draft rankings, with NHL Central Scouting ranking him way down in 57th. Personally, I think he’s a first round prospect, and a big playoffs might be able to convince others as well.
On the back end, the Rangers are led by overager Miles Liberati, who came over in a trade with North Bay in December. In 41 games with Kitchener, the ex-Canucks 7th round pick (who is now a free agent, haven’t not been signed by Vancouver) has seven goals and 23 assists. His 30 points are tops among the d-core. He will log a ton of ice time this series.
Windsor has had a very strong season and even more impressive when you remember this was a team that finished second from the bottom just last year. They are a very young group, however, and may be lacking somewhat in play-off experience.
The Spitfires are going to have to draw on the leadership of Jets prospect Brendan Lemieux and overagers Bradley Latour and Mads Eller. Lemieux came over from Barrie in an early season trade and put up 48 points in 34 games. Latour and Eller bring Memorial Cup experience, Latour with the Oshawa Generals last season and Eller with the Edmonton Oil Kings in 2014.
Back to that youth, as Windsor has a trio of top prospects eligible for this year’s draft. Logan Brown (ranked 14th) is the team’s top centre. Mikhail Sergachev (ranked 10th) and Logan Stanley (ranked 23rd) form the team’s top defensive duo. I’ve written about these three before, so I’d recommend checking that out for more info.
Windsor has also received key contributions from 16 year olds. Michael DiPietro has been the team’s starting goalie for most of the season, something almost unheard of for a player his age to do on a strong play-off team. He’s been remarkable for the Spitfires, posting a .912 save percentage in 29 games, good for fourth in the entire OHL. Gabe Vilardi has provided solid depth scoring for the Spits as well. The potential top five pick in 2017 has a good combination of size (6’2″) and skill. His 37 points tied for second in the OHL among 2017 eligible players.
Prediction: Windsor’s youth makes things happen but ultimately it won’t be enough as Kitchener takes it in 7.
You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot.
Featured image courtesy of Terry Wilson/CHL Images.
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