The AFC South is the least talked about division in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans won the division last year and were first in the AFC but lost in their first playoff game against the Bengals.
Then, in the offseason, the Titans traded star WR AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles, shifting the balance of power in the AFC South.
The Indianapolis Colts have a good defense but they will be without Shaquille Leonard for some time. The Colts traded for Matt Ryan, who should be a slight upgrade over Carson Wentz.
As a result, the Colts have the best odds to win the AFC South in 2022.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is the most interesting team in the AFC South.
Trevor Lawrence had a forgetful rookie season but with Urban Meyer, he did not have a chance. The entire organization was in chaos last year. With Doug Pederson, the Jags will improve.
The Houston Texans are expected to be terrible again this year but could surprise some people under head coach Lovie Smith. Davis Mills will start at QB but the entire roster is unproven and lacks experience.
With that being said, the Texans have the least expectations out of any team in the division.
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Heading into Week 1, no team in the AFC South are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The Colts have the best chance and they are tied with four other teams with +2000 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
On the other hand, the Titans are expected to take a step backward this season while the Jaguars could take a big step forward in Trevor Lawrence’s second season.
Meanwhile, the Texans do not have much of a chance to compete for the division crown.
Below, we’ll break down the AFC South odds for each team in the division.
Indianapolis Colts (-150)
The top online sportsbooks have the Indianapolis Colts as somewhat heavy favorites to win the AFC South at -150 odds.
Shaquille Leonard is out for week 1 but could return in week 2 or 3. He is one of the best defensive players in the league.
Matt Ryan is a slight upgrade at QB over Carson Wentz. The offense will be better and they will still have a very good run game with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
The Colts have the best all-around team in the AFC South and should be favored to win the division.
Tennessee Titans (+210)
Last season’s number one seed in the AFC looks not nearly as strong as last season.
Harold Landry, the Titans’ top pass rusher will miss the entire season due to a torn ACL.
Star WR AJ Brown is no longer with the team since they traded him to the Eagles.
Derrick Henry missed the last half of the season last year. The rushing attack will be good but could take a minor step back with no real threat at WR. Teams can stack the box, which will not allow Henry a ton of room.
It would be an uphill battle for the Titans to make the playoffs in a tough AFC and while being the second favorites to win the division, they could end up third if Trevor Lawrence has a big year two.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+600)
The most interesting team in the AFC South is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The floor is third in the division but the ceiling is second or possibly winning the division.
This season is all on Trevor Lawrence’s shoulders. In a chaotic rookie season, Lawrence stood no chance to be successful with Urban Meyer. With a much-improved head coach, Lawrence will have a big sophomore season.
The Jaguars had two first-round selections in the draft and took two defensive players that will both start in week 1.
Travon Walker was the first overall selection in the draft and he will bolster the Jaguars’ pass rush.
Devin Lloyd was taken 27th overall in the first round and he will start at LB in week 1.
The Jaguars have a lot of potentials to win 3-4 divisional games and finish with a better record than the Titans.
Houston Texans (+2800)
Houston is the only team in the division that does not seem to have a chance to win the division and in all likelihood will finish fourth.
Davis Mills will start at QB for the Texans this season. Houston’s offense will struggle this season.
The Texans drafted Derek Stingley Jr, who will be a very good CB if he can stay healthy.
This will be a season where Houston drafts in the top five and hope to draft a future QB.
Read on for the latest AFC South odds.
Breaking Down The AFC South Race
The best NFL betting sites have the Colts as a somewhat heavy favorite to win the AFC South.
However, it will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers seem.
The Colts are the favorites at -150 to win the division, followed by the Titans at +210 and then the Jaguars at +600.
Houston will not compete for the division crown but the other three teams can.
While the Colts do have the best all-around team in the division, the Titans and Jaguars could give them a challenge for the division title.
Tennessee Titans Season Preview
Despite finishing first in the AFC last season, the Titans do not have much hype for the 2022 season.
The Titans traded away star WR AJ Brown and lost their top pass rusher, Harold Landry due to a torn ACL.
Tennessee’s defense was good last season. They ranked sixth in points allowed per game and first in rushing yards allowed per game. However, their pass defense was weak, ranking 25th in passing yards allowed per game.
Defense could take a step back this season with the injury to Harold Landry.
PFF ranks the Titans’ secondary as 11th best in the league prior to the season starting. This seems a bit generous but the Titans’ secondary has the potential to be fairly good.
Derrick Henry missed the entire second half of the season last year. It is fair to question whether he can still be the dominating running back we are used to seeing. The offense around him is not very good and he will need to carry the load.
Tennessee is not going to contend for a Super Bowl but they can contend for the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts Season Preview
Indianapolis is the favorite to win the AFC South.
Matt Ryan will be the new starting QB for the Colts and he will be an improvement from Carson Wentz.
Jonathan Taylor will still be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. PFF ranks the Colts’ offensive line 10th best heading into the season but they have the potential to be a top-five line.
Michael Pittman Jr will look to build off his solid season last year, which he had over 1,000 receiving yards, 88 receptions, and six receiving TDs. This will be his third year in the league and expect a big season from him.
Indianapolis ranked eighth in points per game, 26th in passing yards per game, and second in rushing yards per game last season. Expect the passing game to improve this season with Matt Ryan.
The Colts ranked 11th in points allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per game in 2021.
Shaquille Leonard will miss the first game or two but generous matchups against the Texans and Jaguars are favorable first two games. Leonard is one of the best defensive players in the league.
The Colts have the best all around team in the division and they should be the favorites to win the AFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars Season Preview
Jacksonville is the most interesting team in the division due to Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence stood no chance to be successful in his rookie season. Urban Meyer caused chaos in the organization and it was a terrible way for Lawrence to start his career. This year with Doug Pederson as the head coach, Lawrence will improve drastically.
Jacksonville overspent on signing Christian Kirk but he should thrive with Lawrence.
Defense was a priority in the draft, drafting Travon Walker first overall and Devin Lloyd was taken 27th overall in the first round. Both players are immediate impact starters.
The Jaguars are one of those teams that can go either way. They can struggle mightily in a tough conference or have the talent to contend for the AFC South division title.
With Trevor Lawrence, expect the Jaguars to put up a fight to win the division title. A good head coach and QB is always a recipe for success.
Teams should not take the Jaguars very lightly, though they could still be a year away from being serious contenders.
Houston Texans Season Preview
The Houston Texans enter the season looking like they will have a very high draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
They are nowhere near good enough to do much of anything in the AFC or even the AFC South. The other three teams in the division are much better.
Houston will hope to draft a future star QB in the 2023 Draft. Davis Mills will be the starting QB this season and the roster around him is weak.
Brandin Cooks is the only WR threat, while rookie RB Dameon Prince will be the starter.
The Texans used their third overall pick in the first round to draft CB Derek Stingley Jr. He has major upside but is injury prone. If he can stay healthy, he will give the Texans a true shutdown corner.
This season, the Texans will need to see rookies Stingley and Prince succeed. Houston will likely have a high draft pick and will need a future QB in order to contend in the AFC and AFC South.
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AFC South Picks and Predictions
The AFC South does not have a team with a good chance to win the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis does have the best all-around team in the division and they have the best chance to win the Super Bowl in the AFC South.
The Colts ranked 11th in points allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per game in 2021.
Shaquille Leonard will miss the first game or two but matchups against the Texans and Jaguars are favorable first two games.
The offense ranked eighth in points per game, 26th in passing yards per game, and second in rushing yards per game last season.
Matt Ryan will be an upgrade over Carson Wentz, which will help Michael Pittman Jr and the entire Colts’ passing game.
PFF ranks the Colts’ offensive line 10th best. The offensive line is very good and could be a top-five offensive line this season.
Indianapolis has the best all-around team in the AFC South and they will win the division.
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