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The best path to success for the C’s is using these draft picks on players who will reach their prime when the Warriors could be broken up (or old) and James and the Cavs no longer are elite.
Imagine a Celtics core of 2016 No. 3 overall pick Jaylen Brown, potential 2017 No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz and whoever next year’s Nets first-round pick turns out to be. Three talented players under 22 years old and signed to team-friendly rookie contracts.
Taking this long-term approach doesn’t hinder Boston’s ability to compete in the East in the short-term, either. Adding a high-end talent like Fultz to a roster that just played in the East Finals would be a substantial upgrade, and depending on how other young Celtics players develop, they might be able to challenge the Cavs soon.
It’s difficult to be patient, especially after a deep playoff run. The Celtics were just three wins away from the NBA Finals.
But it’s important to be realistic about the situation. The Celtics aren’t going to beat the Warriors as currently constructed. If the Celtics stay the course and build through the draft — like many championship squads are formed — they should give themselves the best chance to win when James is in his late thirties and the Warriors’ party could be nearing its end.
I’ll admit it. I skipped the end of the Finals last night to catch a late showing of Wonder Woman.
If the Warriors stay more or less intact, I expect I’m going to end up finding out the final score of more than a few NBA Finals games on twitter long after the end of the game.
But that’s the big question, isn’t it? Will the Warriors stay as good as they were this year? Things can change awfully quick in the NBA. You’ve got Steve Kerr’s back to worry about, luxury tax bills that are going to choke a goat because Steph Curry gonna get paid, and the sclerotic roster situations that come from trying to keep the entire team together because, short term, that’s easier than making tough choices about who to keep and who to trade.
Both the Warriors and Cavs are without trade chips and without the ability to pay more than the taxpayer’s mid to anyone who joins the team, and neither team has much in the way of draft picks. Both teams appeared dominant once the playoffs rolled around, but I’m hear to tell ya, nothing’s guaranteed. In 1986, Boston put together one of the best teams of all time. In 1987, they went to the Finals with a bench that was one of the worst ever to play basketball in June. They didn’t go to the Finals again until 2008.
So, yeah, it may seem like everything’s coming up Golden State right now, and that LeBron is never going to get old, but four years ago, Golden State had just fired Mark Jackson and the Cavs were getting ready to make the first pick in the draft for the second year in a row. Remember when the Lakers traded for Dwight Howard and Steve Nash two years after winning a title?
That’s why it makes sense for Boston to play the long game: Trading a bunch of your future to assemble a team designed for the express purpose of beating either the Cavs’ or the Warriors’ current lineups ignores the fluid situation that prevails in the NBA. If you’re not winning titles, best to keep your team young, keep your draft picks, and keep your roster flexible. There’s no point signing guys like Greg Monroe or Andre Drummond to huge contracts only to regret the decision within a year.
Page 2: Where the 2018 odds are out
The expectations as you might expect are high within the Celtics organization as well as the good folks at www.Bovada.lv in Las Vegas who see the Celtics as one of the odds-on favorites to win an NBA championship next season.
In fact, only Golden State (2/3 odds) and Cleveland (3/1 odds) are considered more likely to win an NBA title than the Celtics whose odds, along with San Antonio, are set at 12/1 to win it all next season.
Here’s a look at the rest of the NBA:
2018 NBA Championship – Odds to Win
Golden State Warriors 2/3
Cleveland Cavaliers 3/1
Boston Celtics 12/1
Like stock prices, these betting odds don’t tell you as much about the team as they do about what everyone else thinks about the team. Befitting their trip to the ECF and the way that trip ended, the C’s fit into the second tier and that second tier is a long way behind this year’s Finals competitors.
For reasons I cannot fully comprehend, the odds makers don’t have a single bin for ‘Teams that don’t have a chance’, and thus the Lakers are given 100:1 odds, while the Nets are given 500:1 odds. To my way of thinking, there should be a ‘So you want to throw your money away’ category for NBA teams with no stated odds because there’s no way those teams are going to win. You might fluke your way into the playoffs, but there’s no way you’re going to fluke your way through four seven game series.
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