There are two days this season when Sixers fans could lay claim to their beloved team being No. 1 in the league, lottery night and draft day.
For the current franchise ownership and management group, lottery night is about ping pong balls and luck. They can do no more than cross their fingers, pray the odds play out in their favor, and show some gratitude to Sam Hinkie for planting the seeds. Thankfully for them, the lottery result was favorable, winning the rights to select No. 1 overall on draft night. Draft night, however, is a chance to leave a lasting impression on the future of the franchise. It can make, break, or continue a path already foraged by the aforementioned planted seeds. Draft night is when the seeds begin turning into crops.
Many die-hard Sixers fans had patiently trusted Hinkie’s mantra of process over results the past few years, but rumors of leaked trade proposals circulating in the hours preceding the actual draft were concerning. Thankfully, recently appointed Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo squashed some fears that he would go the “break” it route. Instead of pulling the trigger on mortgaging core pieces of the current roster and valuable current or future assets, he showed some resolve and stood pat. Turning draft picks into players that fill a specific role especially in the long-term development of this franchise into a possible title contender is one of the more heady alternatives.
So let’s stick to the timeline of how Thursday night’s draft events unfolded and analyze what transpired.
Going into the evening, we all knew it was a two-player draft at the top. Holding the No. 3 pick, the Celtics were in a bit of a predicament. They owned eight picks in the draft–with precious few spots to fill on a roster that currently lacks a true star player. Danny Ainge was actively looking to acquire a bonafide star in the league (such as Jimmy Butler). Trade rumors were leaking left and right that the Sixers brass was enamored with Kris Dunn–and were offering either Jahlil Okafor or Noel in packages to get Kris Dunn at 3. The rumors reached their peak in the minutes prior to the draft commencing with a Marc Stein tweet that intimated that the Sixers were willing to part with Noel, Covington, and two late first-rounders (24 and 26) in exchange for the rights to presumably draft Kris Dunn.
What makes these rumors so interesting are the motivations behind both teams in this scenario. The Celtics leaked information with regards to the No. 3 pick for weeks in hopes to gain some leverage, which ultimately resulted in them not finding a trading partner and surprising everyone by taking Jaylen Brown, a player who has the raw tools to eventually contribute but will need plenty of time to develop.
The Sixers, on the other hand, seemed to have genuine interest in Kris Dunn, as Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski (perhaps the NBA’s most reliable writer and source of insider information) tweeted later that the 76ers were actively contacting the Timberwolves to trade for the No. 5 selection.
Of course, the Wolves had similar plans, and used their pick to draft Dunn, pairing him with the team’s nice up-and-coming core of young stars.
Although rumors should always be treated as such until they actually materialize into a finalized trade, it is appropriate to breakdown both sides of the equation in terms of what the Sixers would be willing to give up to obtain Dunn, and what his ultimate short and long-term value would have been to this roster as currently constructed with Simmons already having been drafted. I’ll keep it simple since it’s based on a hypothetical scenario that didn’t unfold, but regardless does shed some light on some considerable concerns one could have with Colangelo’s train of thought had he in fact pulled the trigger on such a move, if in fact he had the choice. Kris Dunn is a nice 22-year-old prospect that has shown significant ability on the defensive end, but only flashes on offense in terms of passing and particularly streaky scoring and shooting. Would he eventually develop into the ideal fit on this team with Simmons already being able to play point-forward and needing shooters to spread the floor? I have some serious doubts. Although his floor may not be too low, his ceiling seems limited. His attributes do not suggest top-10 point guard potential when considering that the best in the league have one or two sets of skills that are simply other-worldly. Even Ricky Rubio, known for his wizardly passes and much-improved defense, has a hard time breaking through as an elite point guard in the NBA. Consequently, what would the Sixers have had to part with to obtain Dunn’s services? Either Okafor or Noel, and potentially more assets (including a proven 3-and-D forward in Covington)? That is simply too much for this humble blogger to logically wrap his mind around.
For comparisons sake, Okafor is two years younger than Dunn. In Okafor’s rookie season, he accomplished offensive feats rarely seen at such a young age in this league with his wide array of post moves, scoring at will while being defended as the top offensive option with limited scoring or shooting ability around him. It’s easy to dissect his horrific defense combined with the small-ball movement the NBA has been moving towards and question his actual value in the league, but give him two years to improve upon his dominant post game and perhaps learn some semblance of defensive schemes and perhaps in fact you do have a very productive NBA player.
Even if the decision is made that this roster simply has too many big men with too little playing time to develop them all properly, you can’t tell me that Jahlil isn’t more of an asset than a significantly older player that hasn’t played a single game in the NBA or shown any semblance of definitive star potential in his college tape?
As for Nerlens Noel, also younger by one month than Dunn, his defensive efficiency and versatility is perhaps hard to quantify but undeniable when observing. He has a skill-set that is integral to any team seeking success in the current NBA. Imagine the Warriors with Noel against the Thunder and the Cavs? These types of players affect the game in so many ways that perhaps don’t show up on the stat sheet but do clearly change the whole construction of a championship-caliber team: quality defense in the paint is a premium in this league.
Therefore on value alone, trading one of these two young big men for Dunn made little sense in my mind and throwing more assets into the fire would have been a potential painful mistake. It’s obvious the Sixers have a glut of bigs, and because they can’t all play together as time goes by their trade value may diminish. Still, trading for the sake of trading and not improving your team while giving away assets is a rabbit hole even Alice in Wonderland wouldn’t approve going down. As Sam Hinkie would properly assess in his 13-page resignation letter to the Sixers equity partners, having too many assets and optionality is a better problem to have than having no assets at all. Brooklyn Nets fans would concur with Sean Marks as he picks up the pieces left behind from Billy King: note the Thad Young for 20th pick trade.
Now let’s look at the actual picks that were made:
No. 1 overall – Ben Simmons: The moment the Sixers won the draft lottery, it was obviously a two-horse race between Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. In the days leading up to the draft, it was clear that management had made its decision. Ben himself emphatically announced he was becoming a Sixer, posting one instagram photo with Joel Embiid and another in a Sixers practice jersey with the comment “Trust the process.” The Ben Simmons vs. Brandon Ingram debate has been profiled to great lengths all over the internet leading up to the draft, so I will simply give a brief breakdown of their differences and how they potentially affect building this specific Sixers roster. Simmons clearly brings a very unique combination of size and ball-handing ability to the table. What really impressed me is how broad his shoulders are and how much he has already been able to bulk up his body. With his size, athleticism, and skill with the ball in his hands, he will certainly be able to do major damage in the paint and get to the line while also putting teammates in better positions to score. The questions that unfortunately are still not answered are whether his attitude will improve with maturation, whether his lack of success in college is relevant to his ability to make an NBA team better, and most importantly whether he can ever develop a consistent jump shot. If he doesn’t develop a reasonably consistent jump shot he will not be able to make the defense pay for sagging off and consequently diminish the effectiveness of his other skills if the defense can focus attention on guarding others on the perimeter.
What is most concerning to me with regards to his jumpshot is that similarly to Tristan Thompson there are questions of which hand he should actually be shooting with–especially since he has said his right hand is dominant in all other aspects of life but for some reason he has chosen his left hand to be his shooting hand. Serious concerns aside, even though he is a full year older than Ingram, Simmons does flash the potential to become a truly unique superstar in the league. His selection clearly defines how the rest of the roster pieces will have to properly fit with his passing ability and current individual inability to spread the floor himself.
Thankfully, the other 76ers selections in the draft made it clear that there is an understanding that Simmons would function best with athletic wing players that can spread the floor and knock down treys. With youth on his side plus more length albeit with a body frame the width of a flamingo, Brandon Ingram was able to prove himself as a consistent scorer and leader at Duke in the NCAA tournament. Ingram’s shooting at the wing position would make him an easy fit on any roster–especially since the Sixers have no defined starters at shooting guard or small forward. Ingram shows immense upside on both ends of the floor, and building a roster around him would allow for significantly more options in terms of which kind of players could polish off the roster. The Sixers made their choice and hopefully will remain steadfast in their conviction to seeing through to it that the choice is vindicated by properly developing a roster around Simmons to fuel both short and long-term success of the franchise.
Projected Pick: No. 1
Drafted: No. 1
Best-Case Scenario: Modern Oscar Robertson or Bigger/Stronger/Healthier Grant Hill
Worst-Case Scenario: Lamar Odom (Editor’s Note: That’s a pretty optimistic floor!)
No. 24 overall pick – Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: First off, let’s call him TLC and hope that he’s no scrub. On youtube clips alone in a vacuum one would wonder why this athletic freak of a wing didn’t go top-eight and question whether he is yet another Greek Freak that slipped through the fingers of confounded GM’s. Admittedly, Giannis was the youngest prospect of his draft while Timothe is already 21. The way I see it, TLC is a skinny, developing, athletic wing with a low floor and high ceiling. At 24 in the draft having someone with a ceiling as high as his is worth the risky scenario that he never develops any consistent offensive game and plateau’s at Thabo Sefalosha role playing. The upside of someone who can score in the paint, knock down jumpers, and play elite defense is irresistible especially in some of today’s position-less basketball, and TLC is flexible in many lineups. I’m not sure whether the Sixers intend to bring him over or wait another season but if he’s on the roster next season ideally he can contribute sooner rather than later based solely on his defensive combination of size, length, lateral movement. On tape I notice he seems to lose focus or lack energy at times. He certainly needs to improve his physical strength, which worries me that there will be plenty of inconsistency even on defense, especially in the short-term. A more positive take is that the Sixers are known for player development beginning with head coach Brett Brown. All it takes is a look at the progress Jerami Grant and Robert Covington have made in a couple of seasons. Don’t expect any consistency on offense for a season or two, but eventually the expectation is that Luwawu will knock down open shots without hesitation. He is a player that in this draft had perhaps the widest range of scouts either loving or hating him, so as long as he settles somewhere in the middle he will surely have a very productive NBA career.
Projected Pick: No. 9-20
Drafted: No. 24
Best Case Scenario: Skinny Paul George
Worst Case Scenario: Thabo Sefalosha with less energy
No. 26 pick – Furkan Korkmaz: Whether it’s mumbling in broken English on how he enjoys creating shots for himself and others, winning dunk contests in Darth Vader costumes, or going coast-to-coast and dunking after breaking a grown man’s ankles at half court on a spin at the age of 16, there are qualitative and quantitative reasons for why in due time Furkan Korkmaz may well become a fan favorite in the Philly area. There are shades of Drazen Petrovic and Manu Ginobili swagger and similarities that go beyond his pale skin or sneaky athleticism. At 6’8 Furkan has prototypical two-guard length and combines effective ball handling skills with a smooth and consistent jump-shot that is virtually unblockable due to his clean form, quick release, and high release point. At the age of 18, he still has time to fill out his skinny and undefined body as well as carve out more consistent playing time on his team. It is important to note that Dario Saric and him have played together for the last two years at Anadolu Efes Istanbul and have formed a friendship and chemistry on and off the court. Although by all accounts Dario should be coming over this summer, it will be interesting to see if the Sixers management decides to let Furkan mature and develop overseas for a season or two before bringing him over, or if they appease his rumored desire to come over immediately and throw him into NBA/D-League competition immediately. What might be concerning with rushing him into the league with the physically developed athletes of the NBA is whether he will understand defensive schemes and concepts right off the bat let alone develop the strength and lateral movement to hang with the best competition in the world. That should still take him some time and it would be a shame if he were unable to gain confidence and/or playing time, but as long as he has the passion and desire to learn and improve there is no reason to think he cannot become a serviceable NBA defender.
Projected Pick: No. 9-20
Drafted: No. 26
Best Case Scenario: Righty Manu Ginobili
Worst Case Scenario: Rudy Fernandez
Now let’s look at the Sixers roster as currently constructed plus their assets going into the next offseason if they stand completely pat, which certainly they may not, and perhaps should not if the right opportunities present themselves.
Depth Chart:
C: Embiid/Noel/Okafor
PF: Simmons/Noel/Okafor/Saric/Holmes/Landry
SF: Saric(overseas?)/Covington/Grant/Luwawu(overseas?)
SG: Thompson/Stauskas/Korkmaz(overseas?)
PG: Smith(free agent)/Canaan(free agent)/McConnell
2017 Draft Picks:
their own
Lakers first-round pick (Top-3 protected)
Kings first-round pick swap
I wouldn’t blame certain fans from foaming at their mouth looking at names and picks above. Between Embiid and Simmons the Sixers have two potential generational talents. As little as Joel Embiid has been discussed between the lines of everything that went down during the draft, he still has the biggest impact on the team’s success going forward. If Embiid stays healthy and is able to follow through on his irresistible size, strength, skill, fluidity, and potential, he is not only a franchise cornerstone, perennial all-star and possible MVP, but a completely unique player we have not seen since the days of Hakeem the Dream. It is admittedly still a big “if” considering he hasn’t played a competitive game in two years due to some seriously concerning foot injuries, but he has now taken it one step at a time and the timeline to see him in action looks to be the preseason, at which point it will be possible to judge his situation moving forward.
Simmons is clearly another unique talent as discussed earlier and should have a bright future ahead of him. The most glaring hole to fill out on the roster is the point guard position, where players have been woefully miscast the previous years. Although Ish Smith brought a spark to the team last year, he is still better served as an exciting role player off the bench, plus he’s an unrestricted free agent. Fortunately, there is one pretty interesting option available in free agency with Mike Conley. He could possibly bring a solid steady hand and mesh well with this roster if he is willing to play with such a young cast. If not Conley, the only other interesting option is letting Linsanity have a go in Philly and then wait it out to next year’s draft–which is stacked with talent at both guard positions.
Rondo, Jennings, and Deron Williams are available, but not players that would positively contribute to the situation in Philadelphia, and although it isn’t preferable to throw Simmons under the bus right out of the gate in his rookie season, I’m sure he will have plenty of opportunities to handle the ball. Aside from point guard, the team could clearly use some help at the wing positions. Although Covington is a nice player, his role eventually is to come off the bench and drain three’s when he’s feeling it. Grant is an exciting high energy player and shot-blocking machine that is also best used as an energizer bunny off the bench with small-ball lineups. Thompson and Landry are proven role players. Stauskas, although drafted early as a high-end prospect, has not been able to discover any sustainable confidence in his game and his skill-set unfortunately isn’t translating to the league.
Korkmaz is hopefully everything Stauskas was expected to be when the Kings drafted him at No. 8, and maybe even better. Luwawu has the potential to be a successful 3-and-D prototype every team in the league desires. Finally, Saric brings another unique set of skills as well as incredible amounts of effort, fire, and desire that makes any lineup he is a part of competitive. As with Simmons, his combination of power forward size, ball-handling, and passing will be interesting to combine with improved shooting on the perimeter. Dario has already shown the ability over the past season to effectively knock down three-pointers and has improved upon his consistency, making over 40 percent from the European three-point line.
Essentially, the gaping holes in the current roster composition have several ways to be fixed.
Through next year’s highly touted draft that is guard heavy: The Sixers could have two lottery picks, one of which could be top-3: the Kings/Sixers pick swap is an incredible value as the Kings have only become more of a mess, and the Lakers aren’t making the playoffs unless something falls out of the sky into their lap. Not even Brandon Ingram having a season as special as Kevin Durant’s rookie season could get them more than five or 10 more wins from last year’s 17-65 record.
Via Free Agency either this year or next. There will be opportunities to sign veteran free agents with all the cap space available. Perhaps getting a veteran player on a short-term deal of two years would help the youth develop while not risking cap flexibility.
Via Trade, again with all the assets, especially our high-upside bigs, it’s possible to hit on some blockbuster trades.
The key is maintain control of the optionality provided through Sam Hinkie’s tenure, stay patient, trust the process, and seize the proper opportunities. The cards are stacked in the Sixers favor, and management just has to play them right in the situations that present themselves ahead. Bryan played his cards right on draft night. Now I wonder what Jerry has got in his deck for the upcoming free agency period.
At the end of the day, being a sports fan boils down to two key concepts:
Having something to believe in
Being entertained
Sam Hinkie gave 76ers fans something to believe in when he became GM and brought a commitment to a bold plan he agreed upon with ownership. Although ownership stabbed him in the back behind closed doors, his plan is coming to fruition and the seeds are turning into crops that will not only blossom but finally achieve the second key to fandom. It’s time to be entertained by the product on the floor this upcoming season.
Now about that title contention? Only time will tell. No pressure Colangelo family!
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