WPIAL Week 9 Playoff Scenarios

The WPIAL regular season enters its final week with 53 of the 64 playoff spots having already been claimed. In Class 6A, where the top four teams from each conference make the playoffs, the 8 teams are set and are only jockeying for position. Like 6A, the top four teams in each 5A and 4A conference make the playoffs. In 5A, 7 of the 8 spots are decided with only the fourth team from the Big East Conference to be determined between Franklin Regional, Kiski, and Penn-Trafford. In 4A, 6 of the 8 teams have locked up spots with the remaining two spots from the Northwest Nine Conference to be decided between New Castle, Montour, and Blackhawk. Class 3A has the most potential scenarios, as only the top 2 teams from each conference are guaranteed a playoff spot then 2 of the 3 third place teams will win a Wild Card spot. So far, only 4 of the 8 spots have been solidified and there are 192 different possible outcomes that could result from this week’s games to determine the other four teams. Class 2A is much simpler. The top 5 teams from each conference plus one Wild Card 6th place team make the playoffs. All 16 spots in Class 2A have been decided and teams are just playing for position in Week 9. Like 2A, 16 teams make the Class 1A playoffs based on the same breakdown. Entering Week 9, 12 of the 16 spots have been decided with the three 5th place teams and one Wild Card spot still up in the air.

On Tiebreakers

All playoff qualifications are based on Conference Standings first and foremost, which only take into account conference games. Conference Standings are based on conference record, head-to-head record, Gardner Points, and WPIAL Tiebreaker Points. Gardner Points are essentially a “strength of victory” metric where a team is awarded 10 points for each win by the teams they defeated. For example, Pine-Richland has defeated Seneca Valley (3 conference wins), Penn Hills (2 wins), Shaler (0 wins) and Butler (1 win). The teams Pine-Richland defeated in conference play have 6 conference wins, which equals 60 Gardner Points. WPIAL Tiebreaker Points are a “point differential” metric. Teams gain or lose points with each conference game based on the margin of victory. A team may gain or lose a maximum of 10 in a given game, so a 50-point win is the same as a 10 point win for the Tiebreaker Points metric. The full WPIAL Standings are detailed on my Standings Page. A tiebreaking scenario between multiple teams will revert back to head-to-head whenever possible.

On Wild Cards

Classes 1A, 2A, and 3A use a Wild Card system to determine the last few teams into the playoffs and home playoff games. In Class 3A, the regular conference records, Gardner Points, and WPIAL Tiebreaker Points are counted for the Allegheny and Interstate Conferences. For the Beaver Valley Conference, their 6 conference games plus one cross-conference game against the Interstate Conference counts towards their Wild Card records, Gardner Points, and WPIAL Tiebreaker Points. It should be noted that regular conference record still determines the position of a Beaver Valley team in the standings and the cross-conference game is only included in the Wild Card calculation. A full detail of the Class 3A Wild Card standings is available here. In Class2A, only the regular conference standings apply for the Wild Card. In Class 1A, the regular standings for the Big Seven Conference count towards the Wild Card while the cross-conference games between the Eastern and Tri-County South Conferences count for both conferences in the Wild Card calculations. Like with 3A, extra wins, Gardner Points, and Tiebreaker Points earned in cross-conference games only apply in the Wild Card situation, not in the regular conference standings. A full detail of the 1A Wild Card Standings is available here.

Class 6A Playoff Scenarios

Northern Seven Conference

• Central Catholic has clinched the Conference Title.
• Pine-Richland, North Allegheny, and Seneca Valley have clinched playoff spots.
• The winner of North Allegheny vs Pine-Richland will get a home playoff game.
• Seneca Valley is 4th.

Southeastern Conference

• Bethel Park, Mt. Lebanon, Hempfield, and Norwin have clinched playoff spots.
• Bethel Park has clinched a home playoff game.
• The winner of Mt Lebanon vs Bethel Park wins the Conference Title.
• If Mt Lebanon loses and Hempfield beats Norwin, Hempfield finishes 2nd and gets a home playoff game. In this scenario, Mt Lebanon would finish 3rd and Norwin 4th.
• If Mt Lebanon loses and Norwin beats Hempfield, Mt Lebanon is 2nd and gets a home playoff game. In this scenario, Norwin would finish 3rd and Hempfield 4th.

Class 5A Playoff Scenarios

Allegheny Nine Conference

• West Allegheny has clinched the Conference Title.
• Upper St Clair, Woodland Hills, and North Hills have clinched playoff spots.
• The winner of Upper St Clair vs Woodland Hills gets a home playoff game.
• North Hills is 4th.

Big East Conference

• Armstrong, McKeesport, and Gateway have clinched playoff spots.
• Armstrong wins the Conference Title with a win over Kiski OR if McKeesport and Franklin Regional both lose OR with a 1-point loss to Kiski and a McKeesport loss by 10+.
• McKeesport wins the Conference Title with a win over Penn-Trafford and an Armstrong loss OR with a loss to Penn-Trafford if Armstrong loses by at least 2 points.
• Franklin Regional clinches a playoff spot with a win over Gateway OR a Kiski loss.
• Kiski clinches a playoff spot with a win over Armstrong AND losses by Franklin Regional and Penn-Trafford
• If Franklin Regional loses and Kiski and Penn-Trafford both win, the final playoff spot will be determined by Tiebreaker Points (Currently: Franklin Regional +22, Penn-Trafford +15, Kiski +11).

Class 4A Playoff Scenarios

Big Nine Conference

• Thomas Jefferson and West Mifflin have clinched home playoff games (even in a 3-way tie scenario for second, West Mifflin can not be surpassed by Belle Vernon or Ringgold in Tiebreaker Points).
• Belle Vernon, and Ringgold have clinched playoff spots.
• The winner of Thomas Jefferson vs West Mifflin wins the Conference Title.

Northwest Nine Conference

• South Fayette has clniched the Conference Title.
• Mars has clinched a home playoff game.
• New Castle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Blackhawk OR a Montour loss
• Montour clinches a playoff spot with a win over South Fayette OR a Blackhawk loss
• Blackhawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Castle

Class 3A Playoff Scenarios

Beaver Valley Conference

• Aliquippa has clinched a playoff spot and is guaranteed a home playoff game.
• The winner of Beaver Falls vs Beaver clinches a playoff spot
• Beaver wins the Conference Title with a win over Beaver Falls
• Aliquippa wins the Conference Title with a win over Hopewell and a Beaver loss
• Beaver Falls wins the Conference Title with a win over Beaver and an Aliquippa loss
• If Beaver loses, Central Valley is 3rd and Beaver is 4th
• If Beaver Falls loses, Beaver Falls is 3rd and Central Valley is 4th

Allegheny Conference

• Keystone Oaks has clinched the Conference Title
• Apollo-Ridge has clinched a playoff spot
• Valley finishes 3rd with a win over Freeport
• Seton-La Salle finishes 3rd with a win over Keystone Oaks OR a Valley loss

Interstate Conference

• Derry has clinched the Conference Title
• Mt Pleasant clinches a playoff spot with a win over Southmoreland OR a South Park loss
• South Park clinches a playoff spot with a win over Yough AND a Mt Pleasant loss
• South Park finishes 3rd with a win over Yough and a Mt Pleasant win OR with a loss to Yough by 8 or fewer points.
• Yough finishes 3rd with a win over South Park by 9 or more points. (If Yough finishes 3rd, South Park is 4th and Elizabeth Forward is 5th)
• McGuffey finishes 3rd with a win over Derry AND losses by Mt Pleasant and Yough. (McGuffey finishes 6th unless they win and Yough loses)

Second Place Home Game

One of the three second place finishers in Class 3A will get a home playoff game. The second place team in the Beaver Valley Conference is guaranteed a home game.

• Aliquippa finishes 2nd with a Beaver win over Beaver Falls OR loss to Hopewell. Even with a loss to Hopewell, Aliquippa will finish with at least 170 Gardner Points. Apollo-Ridge’s maximum is 150 and the maximum for either Interstate Conference team is 130.
• Beaver Falls finishes 2nd with a win over Beaver and an Aliquippa win over Hopewell. In this scenario, Beaver Falls would have a 6-1 Wild Card record, which is better than the 5-2 records of the other second place teams.

Third Place Wild Card

There are 192 different possible results that can occur for the third place teams. Of those 192 results, the third place team in the Interstate Conference loses the Wild Card in 136 scenarios, the Allegheny Conference team in 44, and Beaver Falls in 2 (Central Valley can not lose the Wild Card if they finish third). There are 10 scenarios in which tiebreaker points could play a factor and teams are too close in current tiebreaker points for one team to clinch the tiebreaker. The three teams in question in those 10 scenarios are Beaver Falls (currently +36), South Park (currently +16), and Valley (Currently +8). The 10 scenarios involving ties in Tiebreaker Points involve these teams finishing at 5-2 which would mean a loss for Beaver Falls and wins for South Park and Valley. If teams finish tied in tiebreaker points, a coin flip will determine the winner.

• In the Beaver Valley Conference, only Central Valley or Beaver Falls could finish third.
  • If Central Valley finishes third, they will get a Wild Card spot.
  • If Beaver Falls finishes third, they will get a Wild Card spot UNLESS one of the following 3 scenarios occurs:
    • Aliquippa, Valley, Seton-La Salle, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win.
      • If Derry beats McGuffey, Tiebreaker Points would decide the last Wild Card between Beaver Falls and South Park
      • If McGuffey beats Derry, Valley and South Park would get the Wild Cards (based on Gardner Points) and Beaver Falls would be OUT.
    • Aliquippa, Freeport, Seton-La Salle, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win
      • If Derry beats McGuffey, Tiebreaker Points would decide the last Wild Card between Beaver Falls and South Park
      • If McGuffey beats Derry, Valley and South Park would get the Wild Cards (based on Gardner Points) and Beaver Falls would be OUT.
    • Hopewell, Freeport, Seton-La Salle, McGuffey, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win (in this scenario, Tiebreaker Points would decide the last Wild Card between Beaver Falls and South Park)
• In the Allegheny Conference, only Valley or Seton-La Salle could finish third.
  • If Valley beats Freeport they get a Wild Card UNLESS one of the following 3 scenarios occurs:
    • Keystone Oaks, Derry, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win (in this scenario the Wild Card will come down to Tiebreaker Points between Valley and South Park)
    • Keystone Oaks, McGuffey, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win (in this scenario, South Park will win the Wild Card)
    • Seton-La Salle, McGuffey, Mt Pleasant, and South Park all win (in this scenario the Wild Card will come down to Tiebreaker Points between Valley and South Park)
      • If this scenario occurs and Beaver and Aliquippa also win, Valley will get a Wild Card based on Gardner Points.
  • Seton La Salle will get a Wild Card with a win over Keystone Oaks and a Valley loss
  • If Valley and Seton-La Salle both lose, the third place team from the Interstate Conference will get the Wild Card UNLESS Derry, Mt Pleasant and Yough all win (then Seton-La Salle gets the Wild Card).
• In the Interstate Conference, South Park, Mt Pleasant, McGuffey, or Yough can finish third.
  • If Valley beats Freeport, South Park is the only Interstate Conference team that can get a Wild Card (via one of the scenarios listed above)
  • Mt Pleasant finishes second with a win. If they lose to Southmoreland and finish third the only way they can get a Wild Card is if Valley and Seton-La Salle both lose.
  • If McGuffey or Yough finish third, they would need Valley and Seton-La Salle to both lose in order to get the Wild Card. Yough would also need Derry or Mt Pleasant to lose in order to get a Wild Card.

Here is a breakdown of the current teams that could possibly win the Wild Card:

Team	Wild Card Record	Tiebreakers		Overall Record	PF	PA	Wild Card Wins
		Gardner	WPIAL
Beaver Falls	5-1	100	36	7-1	301	128
Central Valley	5-2	130	33	6-2	281	132
Mt Pleasant	4-2	110	23	5-3	246	139
South Park	4-2	80	16	4-4	162	166
Valley	4-2	70	8	5-3	206	246
Seton-La Salle	4-2	60	27	5-3	232	194
Yough	3-3	40	-1	4-4	168	182
McGuffey	3-3	50	1	4-4	117	148

Class 2A Playoff Scenarios

All 16 playoff spots in Class 2A have been clinched.

Century Conference

• Washington has clinched the Conference Title
• Chartiers-Houston has clinched a home playoff game
• Frazier, Burgettstown, and Beth-Center have clinched playoff spots
• Frazier clinches a home playoff game with a win over Chartiers-Houston

Midwestern Conference

• Neshannock has clinched the conference title
• Riverside has clniched a home playoff game
• Laurel, CWNC, Freedom, and South Side Beaver have clinched playoff spots
• If CWNC beats Freedom, CWNC is 3rd, Laurel is 4th, Freedom is 5th, and South Side Beaver is 6th and wins the Wild Card
• If Freedom beats CWNC, Laurel is 3rd, Freedom is 4th, South Side Beaver is 5th, and CWNC is 6th and wins the Wild Card

Three Rivers Conference

• Steel Valley, East Allegheny, and Brentwood have clinched home playoff games
• Avonworth and Serra have clinched playoff spots
• Steel Valley wins the Conference Title with a win over Brentwood OR a loss and an East Allegheny win
• Brentwood wins the Conference Title with a win over Steel Valley and an East Allegheny loss

Third Place Home Game

Two of the three third place teams will get a home game based on the 2A Wild Card System. Only conference games count towards the calculation of the 2A Wild Cards.

The team that finishes third in the Three Rivers Conference is guaranteed a home playoff game. Brentwood finishes third if East Allegheny beats Serra OR if Brentwood and East Allegheny both lose. East Allegheny finishes 3rd with a loss to Serra AND a Brentwood win.

In the Century Conference, Frazier will finish 3rd and get a home playoff game with a win over Chartiers-Houston. If Frazier loses, Burgettstown will finish 3rd. Burgettstown has an advantage in Gardner Points and could get a home playoff game if Frazier loses AND any one of the following occur:
– Beth-Center beats Washington
– Brownsville beats Charleroi
– Neshannock beats Mohawk
– Riverside beats New Brighton

The third place team in the Midwestern Conference can only get a home playoff game if Frazier loses to Chartiers-Houston AND Mohawk, New Brighton, Washington, and Charleroi all win. If CWNC beats Freedom, CWNC will finish 3rd. If Freedom beats CWNC, Laurel will finish 3rd.

Sixth Place Wild Card

The sixth place team from the Midwestern Conference will win the Wild Card. If CWNC beats Freedom, South Side Beaver will finish 6th and be the Wild Card. If Freedom beats CWNC, CWNC will finish 6th and be the Wild Card.

Class 1A Playoff Scenarios

Big Seven Conference

• Rochester has clinched the Conference Title
• Northgate has clinched a home playoff game
• OLSH and Sto-Rox have clinched playoff spots
• The winner of OLSH vs Sto-Rox will clinch a home playoff game
• The winner of Shenango vs Union will clinch a playoff spot
• The loser of Shenango vs Union will finish 6th

Eastern Conference

• Clairton, Jeannette, and Bishop Canevin have clinched home playoff games
• Imani Christian has a clinched playoff spot
• The winner of Clairton vs Jeannette will win the Conference Title
• The winer of Springdale vs GCC will clinch a playoff spot
  • If GCC beats Springdale, Springdale will finish 6th
  • If Springdale beats GCC, Riverview will finish 6th

Tri-County South Conference

• Carmichaels has clinched the Conference Title.
• Fort Cherry has clinched a home playoff game.
• California and Mapletown have clinched playoff spots.
• West Greene clinches a playoff spot with a win over California
• Avella clinches a playoff spot with a West Greene loss AND a Jefferson-Morgan loss
• Avella can also clinch a playoff spot if West Greene loses AND both Jefferson-Morgan and Monessen win.
• Jefferson-Morgan clinches a playoff spot with a win over Fort Cherry AND losses by West Greene and Monessen
• If West Greene beats California:
  • Jefferson-Morgan is 6th with a win over Fort Cherry
  • Avella is 6th if Jefferson-Morgan loses
• If California beats West Greene, West Greene is 6th unless Jefferson-Morgan wins and Monessen loses. In that case, Avella is 6th.

Third Place Home Game

• The winner of Sto-Rox vs OLSH will get a home playoff game
• Bishop Canevin has clinched 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and California has clinched 3rd place in the Tri-County South Conference.
• Even if Bishop Canevin loses to Carmichaels, California can not pass them in Gardner Points, so Bishop Canevin will get a home playoff game.

Sixth Place Wild Card

One of the three 6th place teams will get a playoff spot via the 1A Wild Card system.

• In the Big Seven Conference, the loser of Shenango-Union will finish 6th. Union can not win the Wild Card.
• In the Eastern Conference, Springdale finishes 6th with a loss to GCC and Riverview finishes 6th if Springdale beats GCC.
• In the Tri-County South Conference, either Avella, West Greene, or Jefferson-Morgan will finish 6th. Avella and Jefferson-Morgan can not win the Wild Card with a 6th place finish.

Here are the profiles of the 4 teams that remain eligible for the Wild Card:

Team	Wild Card Record	Tiebreakers		Overall Record	PF	PA	Wild Card Wins
		Gardner	WPIAL
Springdale	3-4	40	-10	4-4	179	186
Shenango	3-4	40	-12	3-5	166	249
West Greene	3-4	20	-10	3-5	148	188
Riverview	3-5	40	-23	3-5	104	222