{"id":188944,"date":"2010-01-28T19:24:13","date_gmt":"2010-01-28T19:24:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vip.local\/2010\/01\/28\/pecota-hates-the-brewers\/"},"modified":"2010-01-28T19:24:13","modified_gmt":"2010-01-28T19:24:13","slug":"pecota-hates-the-brewers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pecota-hates-the-brewers\/","title":{"rendered":"PECOTA Hates the Brewers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest PECOTA projections came out today, and they&#8217;re not kind to the Brew Crew, to say the least.\u00a0 The verdict?\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/team_audit.php?team=MIL\">75-87<\/a>, 5th place in the NL Central, and only 5 games ahead of last-place Pittsburgh.\u00a0 Ouch.<\/p>\n<p>The folks at Baseball Prospectus do project the Brewers to score the most runs in the division (827).\u00a0 Unfortunately, they also project the Brewers to give up the most runs in the division, and it&#8217;s not even close (895, 22 more runs than second-worst Pittsburgh).\u00a0 Without having a paid account, you can&#8217;t see the Brewers depth chart projections, but considering who the Brewers lost and who they added, you can get an idea of how they came up with these numbers.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of it has to do with unknown commodities.\u00a0 The guys they lost &#8212; namely, Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy &#8212; are being replaced by players that are either a statistical unknown (Alcides Escobar) or a statistical underachiever (Carlos Gomez).\u00a0 While they upgraded their starting rotation, they did it with guys (Doug Davis, Randy Wolf) whose numbers tend to come out looking like flukes.\u00a0 It&#8217;s also important to remember that even though the Brewers ended last season 80-82, their pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed says they probably should have finished 78-84.\u00a0 Take away a few key players from that team, and you can see that the 75-win projection isn&#8217;t completely baseless.<\/p>\n<p>Is it accurate, though?\u00a0 In terms of pure talent, maybe.\u00a0 On-field results can &#8212; and realistically could be &#8212; different.\u00a0 The Brewers have outperformed their pythagorean record in two of the past three seasons, so it&#8217;s not out of the question that they could &#8220;get lucky&#8221; again&#8230;especially with their offense.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest PECOTA projections came out today, and they&#8217;re not kind to the Brew Crew, to say the least.\u00a0 The&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[165512466],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.6 (Yoast SEO v22.6) - 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