{"id":640585,"date":"2017-03-09T16:25:34","date_gmt":"2017-03-09T21:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/?p=640585"},"modified":"2017-03-09T16:25:34","modified_gmt":"2017-03-09T21:25:34","slug":"blue-jackets-depth-in-the-stretch-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/blue-jackets-depth-in-the-stretch-run\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jackets Depth in the Stretch Run"},"content":{"rendered":"
It\u2019s weird to be a Columbus fan and feel disappointed in a lack of action at the trade deadline. For too many years, the Blue Jackets have been a source of anxiety around March 1st, a team typically in the midst of another sell-off. This time around, the story was different. The Jackets were (and still are) comfortably in a playoff spot, suggesting a chance for an upgrade or a rental. Blame whatever you want (high prices, expansion draft uncertainty), the impact moves just didn\u2019t happen for anybody (outside of Washington with Shattenkirk). Instead, Columbus made two minor moves to help bolster depth. The first: defenseman Kyle Quincey in return for Dalton Prout. Quincey is at worst a lateral move, and perhaps an upgrade over the penalty-prone Jersey-bound d-man. The other: a move for winger Lauri Korpikoski. It\u2019s the forward move that could be a problem as the season ends.<\/span><\/p>\n Throughout the 2016-17 season, Columbus has implicitly placed an emphasis on using skilled forwards across all four lines. The changes happened in the off-season, as the Jackets<\/span> bought out Jared Boll <\/span><\/a>and started the work toward <\/span>termination of Gregory Campbell\u2019s contract<\/span><\/a>. In place of two liabilities in the shot department, the team structured 3rd and 4th line choices around viable hockey players.<\/span><\/p>\n Over the course of the season, the Blue Jackets have managed to \u201chide\u201d players like Scott Hartnell, Sam Gagner, Lukas Sedlak, Matt Calvert, and Josh Anderson in 3rd or 4th line roles (at least by time on ice). The oldest traditional grind-line\/energy-player descriptors don\u2019t fit for many of these players, even if their style can tend toward the physical.<\/p>\n Scott Hartnell<\/b> is secretly among the 10 most impactful even strength scorers in the NHL (minimum <\/span>400 minutes, via Hockey Analysis<\/span><\/a>). <\/span>Sam Gagner<\/b> received attention for his powerplay contributions and then a lengthy goal drought (but thankfully that\u2019s over). Behind the traditional counting stats, Gagner\u2019s been part of an impressive shot differential effort <\/span>that I\u2019ve covered on this site<\/span><\/a>. His impacts haven\u2019t changed since that article was published a month ago. <\/span>Lukas Sedlak<\/b> has quietly built one of the best CF% on the team (sitting at a solid 53.19%, <\/span>via Natural Stat Trick<\/span><\/a>).<\/span><\/p>\n My three specific examples all rank fairly low on the Jackets in average 5v5 time on ice per game. Hartnell is 10th, Gagner 11th, Sedlak 12th among the 12 most frequent CBJ forwards, all three hovering around 10 minutes per game (<\/span>via Natural Stat Trick<\/span><\/a>). Here\u2019s a handy graphic to consider for all three key depth players.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Data from<\/span><\/i> Natural Stat Trick<\/span><\/i><\/a> and <\/span><\/i>Hockey Analysis<\/span><\/i><\/a>, current prior to games on 3\/9. Photos from <\/span><\/i>Wikimedia Commons<\/span><\/i><\/a> and Getty through The Sports Daily\/Bloguin license.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n The main takeaway: even in the low TOI situations, the Blue Jackets are built to win matchups, thus providing a depth advantage that\u2019s hard to match.<\/p>\n Or, perhaps we should be talking in past tense. The Jackets <\/span>were<\/span><\/i> built that way throughout most of the season. Because the tables have shifted a bit in recent weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n Sedlak is out with an oblique strain (<\/span>via Tom Reed, Columbus Dispatch<\/span><\/a>). Matt Calvert is out with an oblique injury (<\/span>shared by the CBJ<\/span><\/a>). Josh Anderson is out with a lower body injury (<\/span>via Aaron Portzline, Columbus Dispatch<\/span><\/a>). Suddenly the roster must be shuffled around, and the depth advantage isn\u2019t quite there anymore.<\/span><\/p>\n Call-ups have helped (Oliver Bjorkstrand <\/span>is on a solid scoring run<\/span><\/a>, TJ Tynan is on <\/span>an emergency recall yo-yo<\/span><\/a> back and forth from Cleveland), but the trade deadline helped to bring in a final (temporary) puzzle piece to help cover the sudden depth problems.<\/span><\/p>\n Unfortunately, Lauri Korpikoski has not been a good answer to the Columbus problems. The issue is not Korpikoski the person, but the player. Over the past two seasons, the results just haven\u2019t been there for Korpikoski, either from a scoring perspective or a shot differential context.<\/p>\n For the former: consider that Korpikoski is 285th among all forwards over the last two years in points per 60 minutes at 5v5, with 1.02 pts\/60 (minimum 500 minutes, <\/span>via Hockey Analysis<\/span><\/a>). NHL lineups, on average, have access to 9-10 forwards scoring at his rate per team. In that sense, it\u2019s a reasonable depth pickup, but a noted downgrade from the scoring impact of Anderson or Sedlak (1.89 pts\/60 and 1.34 pts\/60, <\/span>via Hockey Analysis<\/span><\/a>). In addition, Korpikoski is already 30, already on the wrong side of <\/span>the scoring rate age curve<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n The real downgrade comes in the form of shot differential. Using <\/span>data from Corsica<\/span><\/a>, we can consider Korpikoski\u2019s performance over each of the last two seasons as compared to the average performance of his teams (Edmonton in 2015-16, Dallas in 2016-17). We\u2019ll look at the 25-game average of 5v5 Corsi For percentage for the 2015-16 Edmonton Oilers (shown in orange), the 2016-17 Dallas Stars (shown in green), and Korpikoski (the dashed blue line). The picture isn\u2019t so pretty.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Data from Corsica\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Skater <\/span><\/i><\/a>and <\/span><\/i>Team <\/span><\/i><\/a>Stats<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n The conclusion: Lauri Korpikoski has regularly been below team average in shot differential. This means that, relative to team, the winger is part of surrendering more shots against, and thus not helping to make obvious positive impacts.<\/p>\n The story only becomes more concerning when considering how players in Edmonton and Dallas fared away from Korpikoski. Using data from Hockey Analysis, we can construct a bar chart of the 20 most common teammates with Korpikoski by time on ice. The blue lines are CF% with Korpikoski, and the red are the CF% of that same player when apart from the winger.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Data from <\/span><\/i>Hockey Analysis<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n Every single player gets a boost when apart from Korpikoski. It\u2019s not an encouraging picture, but perhaps points to the endgame for the Jackets: wait for a return to full health.<\/p>\n Losing a few shifts every so often in the course of a hockey game is unavoidable. So many factors enter any given stretch of play, that we shouldn\u2019t be discouraged to see a player like Brandon Saad stuck in the defensive zone a few times a game. On average, we know Saad\u2019s pushing play the right way, that he\u2019s a <\/span>massive positive influence<\/span><\/a> on the team.<\/span><\/p>\n The issue comes in consistently losing a battle. Unfortunately for Columbus, Lauri Korpikoski\u2019s impact was largely negative in each of the past two years, and hasn\u2019t amounted to much since his move to Columbus. Three of his first four games resulted in sub-35% CF% performances (<\/span>via Natural Stat Trick<\/span><\/a>).<\/span><\/p>\nImpressive Columbus Forward Depth<\/h3>\n
The Injuries and a Shallow Forward Pool<\/h3>\n
Hockey Philosophy: Avoiding the Cuts<\/h3>\n