{"id":775877,"date":"2017-12-14T05:30:59","date_gmt":"2017-12-14T09:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/?p=775877"},"modified":"2018-04-07T17:42:15","modified_gmt":"2018-04-07T21:42:15","slug":"mike-sullivan-2-years-with-the-pens-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/mike-sullivan-2-years-with-the-pens-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Mike Sullivan: 2 Years with the Pens, Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"
Monday evening, on the 2nd anniversary<\/a> of Mike Johnston’s firing and the hiring of 47-year old Michael Barry Sullivan, we looked at the traits that made Sullivan the most suitable coach for the Penguins over the past two years.<\/p>\n Today, we’ll look at numbers from Sullivan’s time in Pittsburgh, but first, here are two still-frames of Sullivan’s office at PPG Paints Arena originally shown during an\u00a0In the Room<\/em>\u00a0episode from 2016-17, that illustrate a lot about Sullivan’s philosophy in a few brief words.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n If you can’t read the writing on the framed picture on his wall, it’s a quote from legendary NFL coach Vince Lombardi: “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection, we can achieve excellence<\/em>.” I shared these with Pensblog Rich back in the summer and he replied that “Sullivan studies or is friends with Bill Belichick. I am certain of this.”<\/p>\n Given the winning pedigree and Massachusetts connection, I don’t disagree.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Accountability: A personal choice to demonstrate the ownership necessary for achieving exceptional results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n To the left of that definition, there is a triangle that says, “OWN IT<\/strong>” at the top. Then in descending order: “Play for TEAM<\/strong>, know your SKILLS<\/strong>, own your HABITS<\/strong>, own your ATTITUDE<\/strong>“. Despite the team’s mixed on-ice results so far this season, no one can say that Sullivan hasn’t set up a framework of accountability for the team.<\/p>\n * * *<\/p>\n So we’ve looked at Sullivan qualitatively. However, what do the numbers say about his brief time in Pittsburgh? What statistics can we even use to evaluate a head coach’s effect on his team? One of the godfathers of advanced stats, Rob Vollman, tried\u00a0answering this question as early as 2009<\/a>. His initial definition of a good head coach is one who “consistently improves his team”. To measure this, he took a team’s previous season’s points percentage and regressed it 35% toward the league-wide mean points percentage to calculate a team’s expected points for the current season. (Regression of 35% represents the historic average).<\/p>\n Therefore, actual points earned in the current season minus expected points equals points above (or below) expectation. It is this quantity – points above expectation<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/a> – that represents a head coach’s contribution at improving his team in Vollman’s model.<\/p>\n I looked at data from the last two seasons and created two tables below showing the Top 10 NHL head coaches in 2015-16 and 2016-17 ranked by points above expectations per 82 games.<\/p>\n