{"id":809241,"date":"2016-01-20T09:00:44","date_gmt":"2016-01-20T14:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/c8f.efa.myftpupload.com\/?p=1318"},"modified":"2016-01-20T09:00:44","modified_gmt":"2016-01-20T14:00:44","slug":"pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong\/","title":{"rendered":"Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 projections &#8211; Ryan Vogelsong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/blogs\/2016-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates\/\">ZiPs<\/a>\u00a0(created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/\">fangraphs.com<\/a>. <a href=\"http:\/\/c8f.efa.myftpupload.com\/2016\/01\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-chris-stewart\/\">Yesterday, Ethan Obstarczyk analyzed the projections<\/a> for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/stewach01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Chris Stewart<\/a>;\u00a0let\u2019s continue with the return of the Pittsburgh Pirates latest reclamation project,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/v\/vogelry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Ryan Vogelsong<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>On December 18, 2015, Pittsburgh Pirates fans everywhere were shocked with the sudden announcement that the team had signed Ryan Vogelsong to a one-year, major league deal nearly ten seasons after he departed for Japan after his first stint with the team.<\/p>\n<p>In 2016, Vogelsong has the chance to earn up to $5.1 million between a\u00a0$2\u00a0million guaranteed base salary and $3.1 million in performance incentives.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Per <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@AP<\/a>  <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Pirates?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Pirates<\/a> Ryan Vogelsong is guaranteed $2M in his one-year contract and can earn $3.1M more in performance bonuses <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/WTAE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WTAE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Andrew Stockey (@astockeyWTAE) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/astockeyWTAE\/status\/679023648074809345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 21, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>San Francisco Giants and Pirates fans both quickly turned to social media to react to the move.\u00a0 Giants fans seemed heartbroken that Vogelsong would leave once again to go to the Pirates. Pirates fans, difficult to please unless it\u2019s a household name, berated the signing as the characteristically stingy spending habits of the front office.\u00a0 Here are a couple\u00a0of the most unoriginal, yet amusing ones:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/interst8forty4\/status\/678219968492740610<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Guys, it&#39;s cool. Pirates didn&#39;t really sign Ryan Vogelsong. Steve Harvey just read the card wrong.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Chris Mack (@THEChrisMack) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/THEChrisMack\/status\/678777199042895872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 21, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>For better or worse, the Pirates did sign Vogelsong, as they hope to turn one team\u2019s trash into their treasure once again. Someone already did it once with him. During his stint in Japan, Vogelsong held a record of 11-14 with an average ERA of 4.22 over 34 starts and 28 relief appearances in three seasons between 2007 and 2009. He returned to the United States in 2010 to pitch in the minor leagues with the Phillies&#8217; and Angels\u2019 organizations before being released from both clubs. Just like the Pirates are preparing to do, the Giants gave him a second chance.<\/p>\n<p>In 2011, Ryan Vogelsong defied a career trend of rather lackluster stats to appear in the All-Star Game. He pitched to the tune of a 13-7 record and a 2.71 ERA over 179.2 innings in 28 starts. His ability to give up moderately few walks and home runs, coupled with a dramatic rise to 7.0 K\/9 (well over his first go-round\u00a0in the league), helped him pitch to a career low FIP. In 2012, he experienced regression to his career averages, yet it still resulted in an effective season for him. Over 31 starts, he posted a 3.37 ERA and 14-9 record in 189.2 innings.\u00a0 He allowed walk and home run totals consistent with his 2011 campaign, but he also saw a career high rise in strikeout rate to 7.5.<\/p>\n<p>In 2013, he was self-destructing until he got hit on the hand while batting against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/stammcr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Craig Stammen<\/a> on May 20. The pitch broke two bones and dislocated a joint. He lowered his season ERA by 1.46 when he returned after a 12-week layoff on the disabled list.\u00a0 Vogelsong carried his late-2013 success over into 2014 to the impressive recovery of a 4.00 ERA, but he left the Giants on a low note with a 4.67 ERA, unless you consider his remarks at the end of the season a celebration rather than the ravings of an aging man accepting the end of his career.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Thank you Ryan Vogelsong\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MkTal6V-rmM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>ZiPS projections have yet to be released for Ryan Vogelsong, but the Steamer projections are rather friendly. Steamer projects Vogelsong to have a 4.41 ERA over 19 starts and 109.0 innings. It projects him to have 0.6 WAR with a 3.09 BB\/9 rate and 6.56 K\/9 rate, nd both the walk and strikeout rate projections are decreased from his 2015 numbers. For further comparison, see Vogelsong\u2019s 2014 and 2015 stats compared with his 2016 projections in the table below:<\/p>\n[table id=46 \/]\n<p>Despite finishing with a record of 84-78, the Giants finished eight games behind the division champion Dodgers in the NL West and 13\u00a0games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot. The combination of Vogelsong\u2019s age, a poor 2015, the Giants&#8217; team performance, and a trade to a team that prides itself on its ability to produce and field groundballs led to the poor, yet fair, Steamer projection for 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Make no mistake, Ryan Vogelsong was brought back to Pittsburgh and given a chance to be in the rotation because he is a poor man\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/player_search.cgi?results=mortoch02,mortoch01&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Charlie Morton<\/a>. Neal Huntington has said as much. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.post-gazette.com\/sports\/pirates\/2015\/12\/18\/MLB-Pittsburgh-Pirates-sign-Ryan-Vogelsong-to-one-year-deal\/stories\/201512180274\">When asked about why Vogelsong was signed<\/a>, Huntington\u00a0said, \u201cBecause of [Vogelsong&#8217;s] desire to come back and pitch in Pittsburgh, the contract he has agreed to allows us to redistribute dollars elsewhere.\u201d Being a champion in 2012 and 2014 also factored in: \u201cHe\u2019s been where we\u2019re working to get to. He\u2019s going to be able to share that experience and what he\u2019s seen and heard along the way toward those championship clubs.\u201d Vogelsong will have to beat\u00a0the odds to remain on the team., though, as Huntington also said, \u201cAs we sit here today, we plan on [Vogelsong] being in our rotation. He\u2019s going to have to continue to pitch well enough to keep that spot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not merely a poorly worded statement either. The 19 starts he\u2019s projected for in 2016 would mean his removal from the rotation would come around the first week of August, which will be well after the Super 2 deadline that would mean avoiding an extra year of arbitration for one or both of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.cgi?id=glasno000tyl&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Tyler Glasnow<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.cgi?id=taillo001jam\">Jameson Taillon<\/a>. While Vogelsong has consistently put up high groundball rates for every pitch except his slider throughout each season since returning to\u00a0the majors, he has consistently built velocity as the season goes on. It hardly seems fair to Vogelsong that he will be replaced with one of the up-and-coming prospects right\u00a0when he typically performs his best.<\/p>\n<p>The key to Vogelsong lasting even that long in the rotation will depend on his ability to make any adjustments with Ray Searage, continue to limit walks and home runs, produce ground balls at insane rates, and rely on his defense and offense to pick him up. In 2015, of the 11\u00a0starts in which he allowed three or more runs, the Giants won only one game. Conversely, of the 11\u00a0starts in which he allowed less than three runs, the Giants lost only one game. With\u00a0an offense with a lot of question marks, the Pirates aren\u2019t going to be able to have the same run support problems starting pitchers (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">A.J. Burnett<\/a> in particular) have experienced during good outings the past few years.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t see the perfect storm happening this time. It all comes down to the progress he makes in spring training. Without an appearance at mini-camp, it would be hard to judge what Vogelsong can provide until then. One thing is certain: Searage and the other coaches are going to have their work cut out for them. Any adjustments to help Vogelsong\u00a0amp up his\u00a0strikeout numbers will go a long way towards making him a viable option at the back end of the rotation. Even then, any effort may just be to add another competitive arm to the bullpen mix later on in the season. In any case, the Steamer projections seem like a fair model unless Vogelsong shows something dramatically different in spring training.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"8\/25\/13: Vogelsong blanks Pirates over eight for win\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bjfzPHhETtg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s all hope the version in that video is the Ryan Vogelsong that shows up once again to PNC Park in 2016 because if he doesn\u2019t, the countdown for Tyler Glasnow will be on.<\/p>\n<p><i>Thank you for checking out Pirates Breakdown! \u00a0Please <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/pbcbreakdown\" target=\"_blank\">follow us on twitter <\/a>and jump into the hot stove conversation with us!<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[610258686],"tags":[610258714,140059,8973170],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.2 (Yoast SEO v22.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 projections - Ryan Vogelsong<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Can Ryan Vogelsong defy the critics and sub-par career stats to become the Pittsburgh Pirates latest reclamation project success?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 projections - Ryan Vogelsong\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Can Ryan Vogelsong defy the critics and sub-par career stats to become the Pittsburgh Pirates latest reclamation project success?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Sports Daily\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-01-20T14:00:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alan Draper\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sportsdailytsd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@sportsdailytsd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Alan Draper\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/pittsburgh-pirates-2016-projections-ryan-vogelsong\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Alan Draper\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2c8aadde2571800d0de74323730df7b5\"},\"headline\":\"Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 projections &#8211; 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