Any way we slice it, Bryce Harper is going to get paid handsomely this upcoming winter. But with the way he’s been swinging the bat lately, that check may not be nearly as fat as he once anticipated.<\/p>\n
His season-long statistics don’t necessarily look awesome — he owns a .217\/.356\/.476 triple slash with 19 home runs and 46 RBI, good for a 119 wRC+ in 334 plate appearances — but it’s the progression from April to now that’s garnering some headlines.<\/p>\n
Check out how his walk rate, strikeout rate, soft-hit rate, and wRC+ have changed each month so far this season.<\/p>\n
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As mentioned before, it’s not like Harper’s potential market in free agency is going to cool off because of his struggles. However, aiming for a ridiculous number like $400 million may not be so “realistic” if he doesn’t turn things around and produces like he’s shown in the past.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n Matt Moore<\/a>, SP, Texas Rangers<\/strong><\/p>\n Remember when Matt Moore was one of baseball’s more intriguing young arms? I do, but it sure feels like a long time ago.<\/p>\n His 5.52 ERA in 174.1 innings for the San Francisco Giants was literally the worst among all qualified pitchers last year. Despite taking the mound at one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks, he only managed a 4.21 ERA in 98.1 frames thrown by the Bay. Getting a fresh start with a new club is helpful in some respects, but as one can imagine, things haven’t gone well.<\/p>\n How bad has it been? Well, the Rangers have grown tired of giving him chances in the rotation and have moved him to the bullpen for the time being. Overall, the 29-year-old owns a 7.63 ERA with a 5.07 SIERA, 15.5% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate in 61.1 innings.<\/p>\n His .387 BABIP allowed seems rather high, but not when opposing hitters own a 47.3% hard-hit rate against him. As it currently stands, his strikeout rate, hard-hit rate allowed, and strand rate are all on track to get worse for the third consecutive season.<\/p>\n Unless Moore finds a way to turn things around quickly, he’ll likely spend most of the winter without a job before potentially finding a new home.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Josh Donaldson<\/a>, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays<\/strong><\/p>\n The Toronto Blue Jays entered 2018 with interesting playoff odds<\/a> and even got off to a good start. They finished April with a 16-12 record, which had them only five games out of first place in the American League East.<\/p>\n Things have somewhat fallen apart since then, as they’re currently 37-41 and well behind in both the divisional and wild-card races. This means certain players — *cough* J.A. Happ<\/a> and Josh Donaldson *cough* — are available as we approach the non-waiver trade deadline.<\/p>\n It always seemed unlikely that Toronto would actually re-sign Donaldson. His past track record shows he’d like to get paid handsomely, 2019 will be his age-33 campaign, and the Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. waiting in the wings.<\/p>\n Injuries have slowed down Donaldson each of the last two years — he’s currently on the disabled list — but his performance thus far in 2018 hasn’t been what we’ve come to expect from him. Through 159 plate appearances, the veteran third baseman is slashing just .234\/.333\/.423 with a 105 wRC+ to go along with 5 homers and 16 RBI.<\/p>\n A huge problem for Donaldson compared to recent years is an inability to capitalize on breaking pitches. Here’s how his walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, and wRC+ against sliders and curveballs have changed between 2017 and 2018.<\/p>\n For someone reaching free agency a little older than others, the upcoming few months will be absolutely crucial with regard to Donaldson’s next contract.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Drew Pomeranz<\/a>, SP, Boston Red Sox<\/strong><\/p>\n Yet another impending free agent currently dealing with a DL stint, southpaw Drew Pomeranz has been limited to 37 innings this season for the Boston Red Sox. His limited time on the mound hasn’t yielded results that’d give you the warm and fuzzies, either.<\/p>\n After posting a 3.32 ERA with career-high marks in innings pitched (173.2) and fWAR (3.1) in 2017, he’s limped out to a 6.81 ERA and -0.1 fWAR thus far. His SIERA is all the up at 4.85 thanks to a drop in strikeout rate (20.8%) and rise in walk rate (12.1%). He’s also inducing ground balls at a 38.3% clip, which would easily be a career-low mark if the season ended today.<\/p>\n The first step toward Pomeranz turning things around is just getting back on the active roster. He hasn’t pitched since May 31st due to biceps and neck issues, but he did throw off a mound<\/a>\u00a0Friday, which is a good sign with regard to his recovery.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Brian Dozier<\/a>, 2B, Minnesota Twins<\/strong><\/p>\n Similar to Donaldson, Brian Dozier is in the midst of a crucial year because not only is free agency on the horizon, but he’ll also be entering his age-32 season in 2019. Not showing any kind of drop off in production is imperative to him maximizing his earning potential.<\/p>\n That’s why his first 325 plate appearances in 2018 have been troubling. He’s currently slashing .221\/.302\/.390 with 10 homers, 30 RBI, and an 88 wRC+. After three straight years of posting an ISO above .200, that number is at .169 right now.<\/p>\n There’s no doubting how influential his play has been in recent years — between 2016 and 2017, the only second baseman with a higher fWAR than Dozier’s 11.2 is Jose Altuve<\/a> (14.3). But with just 0.8 fWAR heading into Tuesday’s action, it’s going to take one of his patented second-half surges to get close to equaling his recent output.<\/p>\n Here’s this for some context: in 2016, Dozier posted a 109 wRC+ and .209 ISO in the first half before improving those numbers to 155 and .354, respectively, after the All-Star break. The improvement was even more extreme last year, as his wRC+ went from 95 to 158, while his ISO went from .175 to .287.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Greg Holland<\/a>, RP, St. Louis Cardinals<\/strong><\/p>\n Nothing about this year has been typical for Greg Holland. After the Colorado Rockies moved on and signed Wade Davis<\/a> to be their closer this past winter, his market was awfully quiet. So quiet, in fact, that he didn’t even sign with the Cardinals until after Opening Day.<\/p>\n He’s only thrown 16.1 innings for St. Louis, so things can easily change as his sample size gets bigger. However, the numbers as they currently stand don’t look pretty. The veteran right-hander owns a 7.71 ERA and 5.71 SIERA to go along with a 17.7% strikeout rate and 17.7% walk rate.<\/p>\n His 32.7% hard-hit rate allowed isn’t much different than last year’s 34.1% mark, but there’s a huge discrepancy in BABIP (.370 in ’18, .252 in ’17). Part of the blame can be put on his line-drive rate, which is at 29.6% after being just 13.1% last season.<\/p>\n Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book about how to become a sports blogger<\/a>. You can sign up for his email newsletter here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Reaching free agency can still be an exciting time in an MLB player’s career, last winter be damned. Being in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":822611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[447945913,605048737,605048773,703638948,231608556],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"Six](\"https:\/\/wp.usatodaysports.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/95\/2018\/06\/usatsi_10906242.jpg\")
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About Matt Musico
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