{"id":861656,"date":"2018-11-27T17:09:33","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T22:09:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/?p=861656"},"modified":"2018-11-27T17:09:33","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T22:09:33","slug":"feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Feast or Famine Time: Week 13 CFB Playoff Rankings Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Feast<\/p>\n

Hello Followers.\u00a0 Hope you are doing great!<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s post is directed toward today\u2019s College Football Playoff rankings and their implications for WSU\u2019s chances to secure a bid in a New Year\u2019s Six Bowl.\u00a0 There are two bowls in the NY6 group that the Cougars could be assigned to:\u00a0 The Fiesta Bowl,<\/strong>\u00a0which kicks off the bowl triple header on New\u2019s Day, and the Peach Bowl<\/strong> which is the prelude to the two National Semi-Finals on December 29th<\/sup>. Most pundits who place the Cougs in the NY6 predict a Fiesta Bowl berth due to Regional Considerations, but that may not be automatic if another west coast team (i.e., Boise State or Fresno State) are invited to the party or if there is a regional rivalry that gets played out in the Peach (e.g., Florida vs. UCF).<\/p>\n

Tonight\u2019s selection show is critical to WSU\u2019s chances because there are only 3 \u201cat large\u201d slots that are \u201cin play\u201d (under most scenarios), and because the primary contenders for those spots (LSU, Florida, WSU, Penn State) are already in the club house with no chance to measurably improve their resumes.<\/p>\n

Before I give you my predictions of what I think is going to happen, let\u2019s quickly revisit the required tie-ins for the non-playoff bowls this year:<\/p>\n

Rose Bowl:\u00a0 Big 10 versus Pac-12 (no matter what)<\/p>\n

Sugar Bowl: SEC versus Big 12 (no matter what)<\/p>\n

Fiesta Bowl:\u00a0 OPEN<\/p>\n

Peach Bowl:\u00a0 OPEN<\/p>\n

Now, regarding those \u201copen slots,\u201d well, they\u2019re not entirely open.\u00a0 Under the *new* agreement, a Group of 5 team is required to fill one of the slots in those two open bowls<\/u>.\u00a0 For that reason, there are essentially THREE open spots that remain at-large once those tie ins are considered, all else equal. \u00a0Of course, all else is not equal when it comes to college football or championship weekend, and we’ll deal with that shortly.<\/p>\n

For this reason, we\u2019re going to start with a general rule of what WSU needs to nearly lock-in a New Year\u2019s Six bid tonight, what would keep it alive for a New Year\u2019s Six, and what would KILL WSU\u2019s dreams of playing in a \u201cNew Year\u2019s Day” quality bowl this year.<\/p>\n

What I THINK WILL HAPPEN<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Before I get to some concrete examples, I want to quickly give you tonight’s two most likely set of rankings.\u00a0 In short, while much of the National Talk will be about the placement of teams 4-6, the real action tonight<\/strong> is what happens in slots 7-12 (and slightly beyond that).\u00a0 Because while the primary role of the College Football Playoff Committee is to select teams for the Playoffs, it also is the exclusive agent charged with selecting the teams that will play in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls (i.e. the New Year’s Six).\u00a0 And again, since the primary contending teams are already in the club-house, the rankings tonight will give us a strong indication of which team the Committee ideally wants to be in those games.<\/p>\n

Here are last week\u2019s rankings, followed by some quick #analysis:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Bama<\/li>\n
  2. Clemson<\/li>\n
  3. Notre Dame<\/li>\n
  4. Michigan<\/li>\n
  5. Georgia<\/li>\n
  6. Oklahoma<\/li>\n
  7. LSU<\/li>\n
  8. WSU<\/li>\n
  9. UCF<\/li>\n
  10. Ohio State<\/li>\n
  11. Florida<\/li>\n
  12. Penn State<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Okay, so a couple of things to consider about these rankings.\u00a0 First, I have gone through each team\u2019s resume extensively and if I were ranking the teams, I would have WSU ranked 11 or 12, ahead of Florida but behind a couple of teams that I think made considerable statements last week, including Washington who I think belongs in the Top 10 nationally.\u00a0 But here\u2019s the deal:<\/p>\n

    I think the Committee\u2019s ENTIRE decision tonight–outside of the Oklahoma-Ohio State issue– is based on what they want to do with the University of Florida relative to WSU<\/strong>. \u00a0And that\u2019s important because I do not see ANY WAY that the Committee can or will drop Florida this week after they beat Florida State by 41-14 in their rivalry game. I also don\u2019t see the committee dropping LSU below Florida since LSU\u2019s resume overall is still better than Florida by virtue of the Tigers\u2019 pasting of Georgia at home in October.<\/p>\n

    So, if they decide that they want to \u201call-but\u201d ensure Florida\u2019s inclusion, then the Committee\u2019s course of action will be to elevate them from the 11 slot and put WSU behind them. And if they do that, then the flood gates will be open to put Texas and Washington in front of WSU as well.\u00a0 I have about 49.9% confidence in this scenario. And if it happens, it will look something like this:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Bama<\/li>\n
    2. Clemson<\/li>\n
    3. Notre Dame<\/li>\n
    4. Georgia<\/li>\n
    5. Ohio State<\/li>\n
    6. Oklahoma<\/li>\n
    7. UCF<\/li>\n
    8. Michigan<\/li>\n
    9. LSU<\/li>\n
    10. Florida<\/li>\n
    11. Texas<\/li>\n
    12. UW<\/li>\n
    13. WSU<\/li>\n
    14. Penn State<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Now, if this scenario happens it won\u2019t be the final nail in WSU\u2019s Coffin. But it will take multiple things to happen for us to get there.\u00a0 I\u2019ll get to those scenarios at the end of this post.<\/p>\n

      The “Other” and More Positive Scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Up to this point, the Committee has been remarkably stubborn in their rankings.\u00a0 Their posture has been to slate the Top 10 teams in a certain order and only re-order them when the results have required them to do so.\u00a0 Last week, 3 of the Committee\u2019s Top10 teams lost (LSU, WSU, and Michigan). But in spite of those losses, I think the Committee might argue that the overall landscape of the NY6 changed has changed very little since last week, even if the order of the Top teams merit a strong shake-up.\u00a0 And the way the Committee can advance that argument revolves around 2 points: (1)\u00a0 LSU remains a Top10 team in spite of their 7-OT loss to A&M; and (2) A 10 win season in a power 5 league takes precedent over 9 win (3 loss) non-Division winner, all else equal.<\/p>\n

      Now, IF the Committee adopts that mindset, then I think we will see the following rankings tonight:<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Bama<\/li>\n
      2. Clemson<\/li>\n
      3. Notre Dame<\/li>\n
      4. Georgia<\/li>\n
      5. Ohio State<\/li>\n
      6. Oklahoma<\/li>\n
      7. UCF<\/li>\n
      8. LSU<\/li>\n
      9. Michigan<\/li>\n
      10. WSU<\/li>\n
      11. Florida<\/li>\n
      12. Texas<\/li>\n
      13. Washington<\/li>\n
      14. Penn State<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        I have 50.1% confidence in this scenario because I think (and also hope) that the Committee is as savvy as I think they are.\u00a0 By adopting this ranking, the Committee would achieve two important outcomes: (1) They would effectively \u201cset in stone\u201d the order of who they want in the NY6 and (2) they would retain the flexibility they would want and need to elevate either Washington or Texas (or both) over Florida, WSU, and (perhaps) Michigan were either to emerge as 10 win conference champions by Saturday night.\u00a0 And if either Washington or Texas were to lose, the top part of the rankings would generally remain unchanged, allowing the Committee to focus exclusively on the Ohio State versus Oklahoma debate and less on the NY6.<\/p>\n

        A FEW CASE EXAMPLES<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \u00a0<\/strong>\u201cThe Optimal Case\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

        I\u2019m going to start with the last set of rankings, which are obviously favorable to WSU.\u00a0 What is important to note about these rankings in making projections is not WSU\u2019s actual ranking, but their ranking relative to the other teams who are eligible for an at-large berth.\u00a0 So, let\u2019s play out a couple of scenarios based on the five most likely scenarios for playoff participation\/championship Saturday. I am going to assume that the G5 team is Central Florida (UCF).<\/p>\n

        Ranking Order for \u201cAt-large\u201d Teams.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. LSU<\/li>\n
        2. Michigan<\/li>\n
        3. WSU<\/li>\n
        4. Florida<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Scenario 1.\u00a0 Georgia beats BAMA, Oklahoma and Ohio State win<\/p>\n

          Playoffs<\/em>:\u00a0 Georgia, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

          Rose<\/em>:\u00a0 Washington\/Utah vs. Ohio State<\/p>\n

          Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Oklahoma vs. LSU<\/p>\n

          Peach<\/em>:\u00a0 Florida vs. UCF<\/p>\n

          Fiesta<\/em>:\u00a0 Michigan vs. WSU<\/p>\n

          In this scenario, Georgia\u2019s spot in the Playoff vacates a spot in the Sugar. This allows Florida to gain a NY6 spot as LSU slides into that spot based on a better playoff ranking.<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Scenario 2.\u00a0\u00a0 Ohio State in Playoff, Oklahoma wins<\/p>\n

          Playoffs<\/em>: OSU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

          Rose<\/em>:\u00a0 Washington\/Utah vs. Michigan<\/p>\n

          Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Oklahoma vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

          Peach<\/em>: UCF vs. Florida<\/p>\n

          Fiesta<\/em>:\u00a0 LSU vs. WSU<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Scenario 3.\u00a0 Oklahoma in Playoff, Ohio State wins<\/p>\n

          Playoffs: OU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

          Rose:<\/em> Washington\/Utah vs. Ohio State<\/p>\n

          Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Texas vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

          Peach<\/em>:\u00a0 Michigan vs. LSU<\/p>\n

          Fiesta<\/em>: \u00a0WSU vs. UCF<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Scenario 4.\u00a0 Ohio State in Playoff, Texas wins<\/p>\n

          Playoffs:<\/em> OU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

          Rose<\/em>: Washington\/Utah vs. Michigan<\/p>\n

          Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Texas vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

          Peach<\/em>:\u00a0 Oklahoma vs. LSU<\/p>\n

          Fiesta:<\/em> \u00a0WSU vs. UCF<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Scenario 5.\u00a0 Oklahoma in Playoff, Ohio State Loses<\/p>\n

          Playoffs<\/em>: OU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

          Rose<\/em>: Washington\/Utah vs. Northwestern<\/p>\n

          Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Texas vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

          Peach:<\/em>\u00a0 Ohio State vs. LSU<\/p>\n

          Fiesta:<\/em> \u00a0\u00a0Michigan vs. UCF<\/p>\n

          So, you can see here that if the above rankings come to fruition, <\/strong>the only plausible way that WSU fails to get to NY6 is if Ohio State loses to Northwestern!<\/em><\/p>\n

          Go Bucks!!<\/p>\n

          \u201cThe Sub-Optimal Case\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Here are the case exampls that follow the other, sub-optimal set of rankings that I think the committee could take tonight.\u00a0 Again, what is important is how the Committee ranks WSU relative to the teams competing for those at-large berths. So, let\u2019s play out a couple of examples since we already know that a Northwestern win is a virtual death knell for the Cougs!<\/p>\n

          Ranking Order for \u201cAt-large\u201d Teams in Sub-Optimal Case.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. LSU<\/li>\n
          2. Michigan<\/li>\n
          3. Florida<\/li>\n
          4. WSU<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            (if, at the end of the day, WSU finds itself ranked behind a 4 loss Texas or 3 loss Penn State, the Party is OVER friends!)<\/p>\n

            Scenario 1.\u00a0 Georgia beats BAMA, Oklahoma and Ohio State win<\/p>\n

            Playoffs<\/em>:\u00a0 Georgia, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

            Rose<\/em>:\u00a0 Washington\/Utah vs. Ohio State<\/p>\n

            Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Oklahoma vs. LSU<\/p>\n

            Peach<\/em>:\u00a0 Florida vs. UCF<\/p>\n

            Fiesta<\/em>:\u00a0 Michigan vs. WSU<\/p>\n

            In this scenario, Georgia\u2019s spot in the Playoff vacates a spot in the Sugar. This scenario, however unlikely, is favorable to WSU.\u00a0 LSU gets bumped up to Sugar, vacating an at-large spot for WSU to play in the Fiesta.<\/p>\n

            Scenario 2.\u00a0\u00a0 Ohio State in Playoff, Oklahoma wins<\/p>\n

            Playoffs<\/em>: OSU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

            Rose<\/em>:\u00a0 Washington\/Utah vs. Michigan<\/p>\n

            Sugar<\/em>:\u00a0 Oklahoma vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

            Peach<\/em>: UCF vs. Florida<\/p>\n

            Fiesta<\/em>:\u00a0 LSU vs. WSU<\/p>\n

            This scenario is also okay for WSU, all else equal.\u00a0 With Ohio State in teh playoff, Michigan, once an at-large team, now goes to Rose which opens a spot for WSU in the Fiesta.<\/p>\n

            GO BUCKS!<\/p>\n

            Scenario 3.\u00a0 Oklahoma in Playoff, Ohio State wins<\/p>\n

            Playoffs:<\/em> OU, BAMA, Clemson, and Notre Dame<\/p>\n

            Rose<\/em>: Washington\/Utah vs. Ohio State<\/p>\n

            Sugar:<\/em>\u00a0 Texas vs. Georgia<\/p>\n

            Peach:<\/em>\u00a0 Florida vs. UCF<\/p>\n

            Fiesta:<\/em> \u00a0LSU vs. Michigan<\/p>\n

            Here, WSU gets bumped as two SEC at-larges + Michigan spell DOOM for WSU.<\/p>\n

            So, that pretty much covers it folks.\u00a0 Of course, we\u2019ll pretty much know the outcome as soon as they flash that 11-15 group.\u00a0 But if my hunch is correct, look straight at that #11 line.\u00a0 If Florida is there, I would bet that we\u2019re good.\u00a0 And if they\u2019re not, well, that just not good news for us!<\/p>\n

            I\u2019ll be back near the weekend to sum stuff up and provide a final look at the Cougs\u2019 New Year\u2019s prospects sometime Friday or Sunday.\u00a0\u00a0 Let\u2019s hope for the best, but also prepare for the worst!<\/p>\n

            All for now. Go Cougs!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Hello Followers.\u00a0 Hope you are doing great! Today\u2019s post is directed toward today\u2019s College Football Playoff rankings and their implications…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":840445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[271814401],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFeast or Famine Time: Week 13 CFB Playoff Rankings Preview - The Sports Daily<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Feast or Famine Time: Week 13 CFB Playoff Rankings Preview\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Sports Daily\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-11-27T22:09:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/usatsi_10391333.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"681\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alan Draper\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sportsdailytsd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@sportsdailytsd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Alan Draper\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Alan Draper\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2c8aadde2571800d0de74323730df7b5\"},\"headline\":\"Feast or Famine Time: Week 13 CFB Playoff Rankings Preview\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-11-27T22:09:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-11-27T22:09:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\"},\"wordCount\":1856,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/usatsi_10391333.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"WSU Football Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2018\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\",\"name\":\"Feast or Famine Time: Week 13 CFB Playoff Rankings Preview - The Sports Daily\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/usatsi_10391333.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-11-27T22:09:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-11-27T22:09:33+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/news\/feast-or-famine-time-week-13-cfb-playoff-rankings-preview\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/usatsi_10391333.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/thesportsdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/usatsi_10391333.jpg\",\"width\":1000,\"height\":681,\"caption\":\"Nov 4, 2017; Pullman, WA, USA; Washington State Cougars head coach Mike Leach points to the scoreboard during a replay of the previous play against the Stanford Cardinal in the second half at Martin Stadium. 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