Of the many college football narratives used as crutches for lack of anything else to say, the Good Bo/Bad Bo Wallace 24-volt Rascal scooter has gotten some of the most, if not the most, mileage. Wallace throws an interception: Bad Bo. Wallace keeps from throwing an interception: Good Bo. And rinse and repeat for the remainder of the season.
It’s a convenient and semi-thoughtless way to explain why the Ole Miss offense either struggles or gets things in gear. Though, to be fair, who doesn’t like convenience*?
*It is THE BEST
The only problem with that narrative of convenience is that it doesn’t bother to consider any other options. I know, HOW COULD THERE BE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER. THIS IS AMERICA AND TV AND SPORTS AND THERE IS ALWAYS ONLY ONE ANSWER THAT WE WILL SMASH INTO PLACE UNTIL IT FITS LIKE WE THINK IT SHOULD.
To help point out that Dr. Bo carries an insane amount of the blame for Ole Miss’ offensive failures, we turn to some stats (BORING) that I have taken the time to gather (WHAT A LOSER), and not just regular stats (STILL BORING), but some advanced-ish stats (ADVANCED BORING AMIRITE). And I have no doubt that whatever the scientific process is, it was upheld during this process.
I wanted to find out what kind of help Dr. Bo was getting from his offensive line when it comes to yards per rush. And to get a somewhat accurate account of that performance, I looked specifically at rushes on what are called standard downs (by the way, if you know about this business, the next few sentences to explain it, so feel free to skip ahead, stop reading, or whatever you want to do).
According to Football Outsiders (and the great Bill Connelly), standard downs are all 1st downs, any 2nd down with 7 or fewer yards to go, and any 3rd or 4th down with 4 or fewer yards to go. On these downs, offenses are not limited in what they might call. That is, a running play may make just as must sense as a pass play, which means the defense cannot heavily lean towards defending one or the other.
For example, on a 3rd and 15, a defense is playing the pass, which means it’s willing to give up a 10-yard run and force a punt. So in all the numbers mumbo jumbo below, those results came on downs where the defense had to respect both the run and pass.
And the numbers also account for garbage time to prevent those stats that can sometimes help you win fantasy football (THE SWEETEST KIND OF WIN). Garbage time takes place after any lead that is 28 points in the 1st quarter, 24 points in the 2nd quarter, 21 points in the 3rd quarter, and 16 points in the 4th.
I also threw out “explosive plays”, which are runs that were 20 yards or more. The idea being that a guy could run 10 times for 100 yards, which sounds great, but if 99 of those yards came on one carry, that masks the 9 carries for 1 yard and doesn’t give you the full story of how his day went.
However, I did keep track of the explosive plays and counted them in their own category. Alright, LET’S GET TO NUMBER VOMITING.
First, I only looked at conference games and non-conference games against non-horrible teams. So here are the numbers from 10 games (8 conference, 1 non-conference, 1 bowl game) in both 2012 and 2013.
2012
3.45 yards/carry (931 yards/270 carries)
6 explosive runs
2013
3.81 yards/carry (1,065 yards/279 carries)
10 explosive runs
Things are improving as we move away from the Houston Nutt era, no? All signs point to an improvement in 2014. Let’s see how that’s going:
2014 (6 games)
3.32 yards/carry (415 yards/125 carries)
3 explosive runs (on pace for 5 in 10 conference/non-conference/bowl game games)
OH DEAR. It’s actually worse than the year after Nutt was given money to go away, and half of a yard worse than last year.
As you might expect, this lack of an ability to generate any kind of run game when defenses are playing both the pass and run has created approximately 2.3 million second and third and longs. In the six games tracked, Ole Miss has been staring at:
2nd and 8 or more: 77 times
2nd and 7 or less: 42 times
That means that 64.7% of second down snaps in those games were taken after a gain of two or fewer yards gained on first down. And you’ll be STUNNED to find out that created terrible third down situations:
3rd and 6 or more: 46 times (converted 13 for a 28.2% conversion rate)
3rd and 5 or less: 29 times (converted 17 for a 58.6% conversion rate)
By not getting any offense on first and second downs, Ole Miss is asking Dr. Bo to throw into 7- and 8-man coverages (plus blitzes) in order to sustain drives. At that point, it really doesn’t matter who your quarterback is because THINGS WILL SOON FALL APART.
Throw in that Dr. Bo is also on pace to be sacked 30 times (currently at 19) this year (up from 28 in 2012 and 24 in 2013) and things aren’t going well at all. Yet, despite playing behind an offensive line that is trending downward, Dr. Bo has a good chance to set career highs in completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns.
But, you might be asking, and I’m so glad you are, how do these numbers compare with the remaining competitors for the SEC West title? I mean, are their standard down run numbers offering their quarterbacks assistance or are they getting the Dr. Bo treatment? OBSERVE:
Alabama (6 games)
3.6 yards/carry (576 yards/159 carries)
9 explosive runs (on pace for 15 in 10 conference/non-conference/bowl game games)
Auburn (5 games)
4.56 yards/carry (693 yards/152 carries)
8 explosive runs (on pace for 16 in 10 conference/non-conference/bowl game games)
Mississippi State (4 games)
4.16 yards/carry (479 yards/115 carries)
10 explosive runs (on pace for 22.5 in 9 conference/non-conference/bowl game games*)
*State plays four bad non-conference teams, so they’re down a game to everyone else
Now how about that 2nd and 3rd down data? Here it is, JUST FOR YOU:
Alabama
2nd and 8 or more: 62 times
2nd and 7 or less: 67 times
48.1% of second down snaps taken after two or fewer yards gained
3rd and 6 or more: 40 times (converted 17 for a 42.5% conversion rate)
3rd and 5 or less: 45 times (converted 33 for a 73.3% conversion rate)
Auburn
2nd and 8 or more: 60 times
2nd and 7 or less: 57 times
51.2% of second down snaps taken after two or fewer yards gained
3rd and 6 or more: 37 times (converted 17 for a 45.9% conversion rate)
3rd and 5 or less: 28 times (converted 18 for a 64.3% conversion rate)
Mississippi State
2nd and 8 or more: 40 times
2nd and 7 or less: 41 times
49.4% of second down snaps taken after two or fewer yards gained
3rd and 6 or more: 25 times (converted 10 for a 40% conversion rate)
3rd and 5 or less: 23 times (converted 16 for a 69.6% conversion rate)
And it should be noted that Blake Sims has been sacked 5 times (on pace for 8), Nick Marshall has been sacked 6 times (on pace for 12), and Dak Prescott has been sacked 13 times (on pace for 23). As all of these fancy pants numbers point out, Dr. Bo is playing behind the worst offensive line of his Ole Miss career and an offensive line that is well behind the other three leading teams in the West, whose quarterbacks are not tasked with consistently firing into long-yardage situations on second and third down.
Again, DESPITE THE CURTAINS BEHIND WHICH HE STANDS, Dr. Bo has put himself in a position for career numbers and Ole Miss in position for a season that hasn’t happened since the Kennedy administration (with a major assist from the Ole Miss defense). While he certainly deserves some of the blame and such for poor decisions, the consideration and discussion of the fabric in front of him that offers little to no assistance is desperately missing.
There is no Good Bo/Bad Bo Wallace. There is only Bo Wallace being asked to do something most college quarterbacks cannot do.
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