Despite Being Cast Aside, Let’s Wade Into Jeremy Johnson’s Passing Success Rate Numbers

Since I continue to be behind on everything, you may have heard by now that Jeremy Johnson is out as Auburn’s starting quarterback. Yesterday, Gus Malzahn announced that Chris Todd was returning for his 12th year of eligibility and would take over against Mississi- wait….I’m being told that information is incorrect. It would actually be Chris Todd’s 19th year of eligibility, but he declined the starting job, citing “I’m 57 damn years old”.

Instead of Todd’s return, Auburn will turn to Sean White, a redshirt freshman whose only experience in college football is watching from the sideline (and possibly holding up one of those play signal boards). The timing is somewhat interesting because, while Auburn isn’t going to win 10 or 11 games, there is still time to pull this thing out of the raging inferno and possibly win seven to eight games.

By abandoning Johnson and starting White in the fourth game of the year, Malzahn has decided that this is the make or total destruction break point of the year. If Johnson were to repeat his LSU performance against Mississippi State, Auburn would have confirmation that its season is done. White at least provides a glimmer of hope of an Outback Bowl or something not in Shreveport or Memphis.

However, if White is as equally poor as Johnson was against LSU, then the whole thing blows up, and Auburn spends the rest of the year trying to get to six wins. Malzahn clearly has seen enough of Johnson to think that LSU Jeremy Johnson will be Conference Play Jeremy Johnson, and that White and his experience of none is worth the gamble.

While Johnson has struggled (a generous use of the word “struggled”), just how bad has it been? To determine that, let’s take a look at his passing success rate numbers.

If you don’t know what passing success rate is, you should pay attention to the next few sentences. If you do, skip ahead, assuming you even made it this far.

Success rate is usually applied to an offense as a whole. It tries to define whether or not a play was successful. Success rate considers a play successful if it gains:

• 50% of the yards to go on 1st down
• 70% of the yards to go on 2nd down
• 100% of the yards to go on 3rd and 4th downs

Obviously, a play that gains two yards on a third and seven isn’t successful, but this also takes into account a play that gains 12 yards on a third and 20. The 12 yards helps the receiver/quarterback’s stats, but it does nothing for the offense, as it is now forced to punt, which is a win for the defense.

This video provides a really simple explanation, and yes, I should’ve included it before these last few paragraphs, but HA MADE YOU READ.

So with this blob of new information in your minds, let’s see what Jeremy Johnson’s passing success rate was (note: I didn’t split the stats into passing downs and standard downs; if you don’t know what those are, rest easy, one less thing you need to learn to keep reading). Oh, and I should mention that the current national average for passing success rate is 40.4%.

vs Louisville
21 attempts, 10 successful plays – 47.6% success rate

vs Jacksonville State
32 attempts, 18 successful plays – 56.3% success rate

Before I get to the LSU numbers, anything Johnson did in the fourth quarter I did not count because, being a 31-point game in the 4th quarter, it was garbage time. HOWEVER, for Auburn fans looking for the slightest ray of #blessed hope, Johnson had five successful plays out of six for a success rate of 83.3%! IF ONLY THE WHOLE GAME WAS GARBAGE TIME.

vs LSU
14 attempts, 2 successful plays – 14.3%

YIKES.

Overall Passing Success Rate
67 attempts, 30 successful plays – 44.8% success rate

In another sign of #blessed hope, Johnson is just above the national average, which, as George Costanza once said, is “not showing off, not falling behind”. The main problem for Johnson has been the turnovers, and they have been a SLIGHTLY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.

He’s thrown six interceptions in just 72 passes. That’s a jumping-ahead-of-Jevan-Snead rate of one interception every 12 passes. Plus, throw in two lost fumbles for a grand total of eight turnovers, and that he has the panicked look of Gus Malzahn when he can’t find a sweater vest, and you have a pretty good reason to make a change.

If White does turn out to be a mess, Johnson’s passing success rate indicates that he could return to keep Auburn from a Gene Chizik final season. The key will be doing all things possible to ensure he doesn’t turn it over, which could prove to be something even a hundred prayer circles can’t help.