I’d like to note that, in the above image, Dak is doing a wonderful impression of me when presented with any kind of math.
To be played beneath the state flag of Mississippi on Saturday afternoon, the Mississippi State/Alabama game features one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks* and certainly the best defense in the conference. Dak Prescott, who has been a raging fire of spectacular, will be presented with his toughest challenge of the season in the form of an Alabama defense that has gotten into gear and resumed squeezing the life out of all opposing offenses.
*Anyone who was not insane knew Dak would be one of the best QBs this year, but legitimate arguments can be made for Chad Kelly and Brandon Allen. Repeat, CHAD KELLY AND BRANDON ALLEN. LIKE KICKED-OUT-OF-CLEMSON CHAD KELLY AND TRUCK-SET-ON-FIRE BRANDON ALLEN.
On top of the feats of strength contest between Dak and his offense and the Alabama defense, there’s quite a bit riding on this game. For Alabama, a win over Mississippi State nearly assures them of a trip to Atlanta, unless Auburn bea-LOL. In order for Mississippi State to get to Atlanta, the Bulldogs need to win out, and then have LSU lose two out of three against Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.
So as you can see, things are GETTING A LITTLE TENSE. However, our purpose here today is not to let the tension wash over us, but to take a deep look into Dak’s passing numbers thus far, as well as Alabama’s passing defense numbers against other conference quarterbacks. It promises to be an adventure you will forget sometime in the next hour or two.
Before we launch into the numbers orgy, I had a few guidelines for how I looked at things. First, I only took stats from conference games because it cut down on the work I had to do, but I also wanted to avoid numbers against terrible teams (luckily State and Alabama have not played Vanderbilt).
Second, speaking of bloated numbers, I only used stats from games when they were still competitive. This means any stats registered in a game that was not within 16 points in the fourth quarter or 21 points in the third quarter were not counted (Football Outsiders’ definition of garbage time).
The stats you’ll see below are broken into standard downs and passing downs. Once again, I used Football Outsiders’ definitions for each, which say a passing down is any 2nd down with 8 or more yards to go and any 3rd or 4th down with 5 or more yards to go. A standard down is any other down and distance.
The reason for the two categories is that standard down numbers tend to be better because the defense has to worry about the run and the pass, which makes it harder to defend an offense. On passing downs, defenses are focused on one aspect of an offense, which raises the degree of difficulty for an offense and its quarterback.
So if a quarterback has good passing down numbers, he’s doing quite well for himself. It’s nice to also have good standard down numbers, but it’s more important to not have awful standard down numbers, which set you up for multiple passing down situations and an avalanche of punts.
Now that we took nearly 550 words to explain all of that, let’s see some numbers. We should note that Alabama is ranked first in most defensive S&P+ numbers (MORE FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS), so these numbers are going to be, AHEM, pretty blah.
Here’s how SEC quarterbacks have fared against Alabama.
Standard Downs
Chad Kelly: 10/17, 243 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 16 rushing yards, 0 sack
Greyson Lambert: 1/6, 36 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, -8 rushing yards, 0 sack
Brandon Allen: 8/12, 53 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 rushing yards, 1 sack
Kyle Allen: 10/22, 131 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 16 rushing yards, 1 sack
Kyler Murray: 1/2, 6 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, -5 rushing yards, 0 sack
Joshua Dobbs: 8/9, 79 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 38 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Brandon Harris: 1/6, 13 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 29 rushing yards, 1 sack
Passing Downs
Chad Kelly: 8/16, 97 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 11 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Greyson Lambert: 6/11, 34 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 13 rushing yards, 0 sack
Brice Ramsey: 0/1, 0 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 rushing yards, 1 sack
Brandon Allen: 5/16, 51 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 16 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Kyle Allen: 8/15, 111 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, -1 rushing yard, 3 sacks
Kyler Murray: 1/2, 15 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 rushing yards, 1 sack
Joshua Dobbs: 7/15, 110 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 18 rushing yards, 3 sacks
Brandon Harris: 3/9, 87 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 rushing yards, 1 sack
Before we get to the totals, I want to point out a few things. SWAG Kelly was incredible on standard downs (that tipped touchdown pass helped), nice job by Tennessee in not getting Joshua Dobbs more throws on standard downs and instead relying on trying to run it against Alabama, and again, WHY DOES ANY WIDE RECEIVER WITH TALENT GO TO LSU.
Totals
Standard Downs
39/74 (52.7%), 561 yards (7.5 yds/att), 4 TD, 4 INT, 92 rushing yards, 5 sacks
Passing Downs
38/85 (44.7%), 510 yards (6 yds/att), 2 TD, 3 INT, 57 rushing yards, 13 sacks
Not to state the obvious here, but to state the obvious here, MARGINALLY IMPORTANT to not get stuck in passing downs against Alabama. When switching from standard downs to passing downs, you go from not bad to pretty bad, but hey, NOT VANDERBILT.
With those numbers in mind, how has Dak done in standard and passing downs this year? Glad you asked because I went ahead and ran the numbers by game.
LSU (33rd in Def. S&P+)
Standard Downs: 27/34, 285 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 5 rushing yards, 1 sack
Passing Downs: 7/18, 50 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Auburn (61st in Def. S&P+)
Standard Downs: 20/28, 161 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushing yards, 0 sacks
Passing Downs: 9/13, 118 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 10 rushing yards, 0 sacks
Texas A&M (56th in Def. S&P+)
Standard Downs: 10/18, 71 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 64 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Passing Downs: 10/16, 120 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 44 rushing yards, 0 sacks
Kentucky (90th in Def. S&P+)
Standard Downs: 17/21, 236 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 40 rushing yards, 1 sack
Passing Downs: 4/8, 71 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 47 rushing yards, 0 sacks
Missouri (14th in Def. S&P+)
Standard Downs: 15/20, 137 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 30 rushing yards, 1 sack
Passing Downs: 8/14, 148 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 18 rushing yards, 1 sack
Totals
Standard Downs: 89/121 (73.5%), 890 yards (7.3 yds/att), 5 TD, 1 INT 143 rushing yards, 5 sacks
Passing Downs: 38/69 (55.1%), 507 yards (7.3 yds/att), 5 TD, 0 INT, 123 rushing yards, 3 sacks
Three things we can take away from this (minus THIS IS SO BORING). One, like most quarterbacks, Dak’s numbers go down in passing downs, most notably against LSU where he was bad (though the offensive line deserves an assist there). Two, despite the lower numbers in passing downs, Dak has hit some really big plays, as the 7.3 yards/attempt in 69 passes indicates.
Granted, he’s only faced two good defenses, but you still have to make those throws (UNLESS THE DANG TIDE JUST GIVES ‘EM TO YOU). And the third and final point, it’s pretty clear Mississippi State makes an effort to throw on first down as much as possible in hopes of avoiding passing downs (PAY ATTENTION, HUGH FREEZE).
Some of that has to do with their running game being, oh, what’s the word, NOT GOOD, but I think they also recognize Dak is the strength of the team, so why not let him throw in easier situations like first down and short-yardage plays. That takes some of the pressure off of him and allows Mississippi State to sort of hide their lack of a running game.
Since Nick Saban watches all the film ever, he most certainly knows this as well, which means that one of the really interesting battles on Saturday will be when Mississippi State has the ball on first down or short-yardage situations. What slivers of passing success against Alabama have come on standard downs, which, as we’ve seen here today, is where Dak is outstanding.
For Mississippi State to have a chance, they have to stay in standard downs as much as possible, which means keep doing what they’ve been doing all year. For Alabama to crush all hope, per the usual, they have to force State into passing downs, and then not get hit with big plays, which State is very much able to do. Another option is to score many points to put pressure on the State offense to stay in passing situations, but that requires Derrick Henry going for bonkers yards or Jake Coker throw- Derrick Henry going for REALLY bonkers yards.
Given the defenses (and offenses) they’ve faced, I’m not sure we have a totally clear picture of who State really is at this point, but the offensive numbers indicate that if they can keep up their standard downs game, they’ll have a shot. And as a delusional Ole Miss fan who has not accepted our fate of returning to the Liberty Bowl, I hope they can do it to keep our fever dream of Atlanta alive.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
