Now that the season is behind us, let’s look back at some numbers. These numbers will reveal areas of weaknesses and strengths as the Giants head into the free agency period and the draft. In this post, we will look at strength of schedule and defense.
First, look at a revealing measurement provided by Cold Hard Football Facts (CHFF) called quality standings. This simply measures performance against teams winning records:
| NFC East | ||||
| Team | W | L | PF | PA |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 2 | 28.0 | 24.5 |
| Dallas | 3 | 5 | 25.1 | 30.1 |
| Washington | 3 | 5 | 17.4 | 23.8 |
| N.Y. Giants | 1 | 4 | 19.2 | 30 |
Funny, I thought a 10 win season was something to be proud of?
Next, take a look at how the Giants performed as it relates to the strength of schedule. Football Outsiders utilize a measurement called DVOA
or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
The 2010 schedule ranks teams from 1 as the toughest schedule to 32 with the weakest schedule. Furthermore, “PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team’s expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.” While “VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team’s weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).”
Unfortunately, this is a measurement of offense, defense and special teams combined. They do not break it down by unit:
| TEAM | TOTAL
DVOA |
2010
SCHED |
RANK | PYTH
WINS |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NE | 44.7% | 5.8% | 7 | 12.3 | 1 | 18.6% | 17 |
| 2 | PIT | 37.3% | 5.2% | 8 | 12.1 | 3 | 13.9% | 12 |
| 3 | GB | 23.3% | 2.4% | 16 | 12.1 | 2 | 15.3% | 15 |
| 4 | BAL | 23.0% | 6.1% | 6 | 10.6 | 6 | 5.1% | 2 |
| 5 | PHI | 22.0% | -0.3% | 20 | 9.4 | 10 | 9.3% | 6 |
| 6 | NYJ | 18.7% | 7.1% | 5 | 9.8 | 8 | 23.9% | 28 |
| 7 | SD | 17.6% | -4.9% | 26 | 10.9 | 5 | 23.2% | 26 |
| 8 | ATL | 15.9% | -1.8% | 22 | 11.2 | 4 | 4.9% | 1 |
| 9 | NYG | 14.5% | -3.3% | 24 | 10.1 | 7 | 22.6% | 24 |
This confirms many of the points brought up on this blog about their performance against quality opponents as well as their overall consistency. Their lack of consistency is vividly displayed with a ranking of 24. Again, the accountability factor comes in to play.
Let’s move on to their known strength, the Defensive Line. Again CHFF gives a breakdown of YPA (yards per running attempt), NPP% (negative pass plays) which defines the percentage of plays that result in a sack or interception, and 3rd down percentage:
| Team | YPA | # | NPP% | # | 3down% | # | Avg | |
| 1t | Pittsburgh | 3.01 | 1 | 10.47 | 7 | 33.49 | 3 | 3.7 |
| 1t | San Diego | 3.71 | 5 | 11.78 | 2 | 33.65 | 4 | 3.7 |
| 3 | N.Y. Giants | 4.18 | 14 | 10.75 | 4 | 31.73 | 1 | 6.3 |
| 4 | N.Y. Jets | 3.57 | 3 | 9.11 | 12 | 36.99 | 10 | 8.3 |
It’s interesting to note that they excelled in NPP% in ranking 4th in the league and 3rd down % in ranking a league best. But they were in the middle of the pack in YPA finishing 14th in the league. Was this a result of poor defensive tackle play or what Pete has been shouting about a lack of production by the linebackers in the tackling department?
Furthermore Football Outsiders backs up the successes of the defense as a whole. The DVOA measurement
| TEAM | TOTAL
DVOA |
Weighted
DVOA |
RANK | DEFENSE
DVOA |
DEF.
RANK |
|
| 1 | NE | 44.7% | 54.0% | 1 | 5.5% | 19 |
| 2 | PIT | 37.3% | 40.0% | 2 | -18.5% | 1 |
| 3 | GB | 23.3% | 25.2% | 4 | -10.8% | 2 |
| 4 | BAL | 23.0% | 27.8% | 3 | -7.9% | 4 |
| 5 | PHI | 22.0% | 21.4% | 6 | 1.4% | 14 |
| 6 | NYJ | 18.7% | 14.9% | 7 | -7.8% | 6 |
| 7 | SD | 17.6% | 21.5% | 5 | -6.4% | 7 |
| 8 | ATL | 15.9% | 13.5% | 9 | 1.3% | 12 |
| 9 | NYG | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10 | -8.1% | 3 |
| 10 | NO | 11.0% | 13.6% | 8 | -2.6% | 9 |
| 11 | TEN | 8.0% | 1.1% | 17 | -4.1% | 8 |
| 12 | TB | 4.2% | 9.4% | 14 | 6.9% | 23 |
| 13 | HOU | 4.0% | 9.8% | 13 | 20.9% | 31 |
| 14 | MIA | 3.8% | 2.3% | 15 | -1.9% | 10 |
| 15 | IND | 3.0% | -1.0% | 18 | 8.2% | 24 |
| 16 | CHI | 3.0% | 11.5% | 11 | -7.8% | 5 |
Again they faired very well ranking 3rd in the league for the regular season.
Finally, we all know about cover 2 and it’s shortcomings but let’s look at a statistic that reveals some of its issues. YPPA measures the concept of “bend but don’t break defense.”
| Team | Yards | Points | YPPA | |
| 1 | Green Bay | 4946 | 240 | 20.61 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 4430 | 232 | 19.09 |
| 3 | Baltimore | 5094 | 270 | 18.87 |
| 4 | New England | 5864 | 313 | 18.73 |
| 5 | Atlanta | 5319 | 288 | 18.47 |
| 6 | Chicago | 5029 | 286 | 17.58 |
| 7 | Tennessee | 5883 | 339 | 17.35 |
| 8 | Cleveland | 5601 | 332 | 16.87 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay | 5323 | 318 | 16.74 |
| 10 | Washington | 6228 | 377 | 16.52 |
| 11 | St. Louis | 5388 | 328 | 16.43 |
| 12 | Kansas City | 5283 | 326 | 16.21 |
| 13 | New Orleans | 4900 | 307 | 15.96 |
| 14 | N.Y. Jets | 4664 | 304 | 15.34 |
| 15 | San Francisco | 5244 | 346 | 15.16 |
| 16 | Detroit | 5498 | 369 | 14.90 |
| 17 | Miami | 4949 | 333 | 14.86 |
| 18 | Seattle | 5897 | 407 | 14.49 |
| 19 | Minnesota | 5002 | 348 | 14.37 |
| 20 | N.Y. Giants | 4972 | 347 | 14.33 |
This measurement tool defines a teams ability to keep opponents from scoring. It takes into account “proficiency of offense and special teams, red zone defense, and turnover differential” as well. But also is a significant measurement of big plays given up. Overall, the defense did an exceptional job of limiting points off turnovers over the course of the season. They also handled the disadvantages the special teams unit displaced upon them earlier in the season; again limiting opponents to scores.
The numbers suggest: 1) Reese needs to upgrade the linebacker unit and instill more speed in coverage. As per Francesa’s interview with John Mara, the Giants owner told listeners linebacker is an area the Giants must upgrade. 2.) They can’t rely on certain players to continually mask their weaknesses. Rolle revealed his struggles when he stated after the season that “I have to get in the mind-set of being able to transform myself from being up as opposed to playing back deep.” But are you putting a guy in a position that he cannot perform on a consistent basis given that his “mind was just wandering” at times. Is Corey Webster or Terrell Thomas capable of handling the speedsters based on Fewell’s scheme?
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