What does it take to be successful in the NFL in 2011?
Last week, we outlined how modern defenses are using more pressure, including innovative blitzes, in order to disrupt the timing and effectiveness in opponents’ passing games. In order for offenses to respond to this, they in turn must use more of the plays that are effective against those pressure packages in order to adapt and beat those defenses. So we see how in the first half of the Ravens-Steelers game, the Ravens adapted effectively vs the pressure packages that the Steelers routinely bring, and used Ray Rice as a pass receiver on flares and screens.
A second takeaway for what is necessary to be competitive in the NFL is that you have to assume you are playing against the best QB every week on your schedule. That may be intuitively obvious, but go tell that to (the schemes of) Perry Fewell. In order for the Jets to go all the way in the playoffs, Peyton Manning was in their way. Tom Brady was in their way. Ben Roethlisberger is in their way. And if the Jets are fortunate to find a way to beat Mr. Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers will likely be in their way too.
What were the Cornerbacks and Safeties being taught to do in Giants training camp this past summer by Perry Fewell? They were specifically told to watch the eyes of the opposing QB. This is what I unapologetically call: BUILT TO FAIL. The methodology preys on the weaker QBs who are unskilled and telegraph their intentions. Add Cover 2 with some zone, stir, mix, and the result is more than a few interceptions. But we know that when the Giants faced the better QBs, the opposing QB’s decisions would be faster, with timed routes and knowledgeable awareness of poaching. This was why Pete unaffectionately called the INTs vs the weaker QBs “fool’s gold.”
In the playoffs of 2007-8, Eli Manning made one of his most dramatic improvements. He stopped his telegraphing (4 INTs vs Minnesota) and looked off Ronde Barber en route to a playoff win and A NEW TELL- that of a veteran QB who would not be victimized by preying defenses.
Let’s look at this year’s Quarterbacks and their Passer Ratings. First, the ones we beat:
Schaub 92.0
Garrard 90.8
Kitna 88.9
Cutler 86.3
Grossman 81.2
Stanton 78.4
McNabb 77.1
Whitehurst 65.5
Jackson 63.9
Moore 55.6
And the ones we lost to:
Rodgers 101.2
Vick 100.2
Vick 100.2
Young 98.6
Manning 91.9
Kitna 88.9
Average Passer Rating of the Losing QB is 78.0. Average Passer Rating of the Winning QB is 96.8. Now obviously the teams that you lose to are going to be better teams on average, with better QBs. But the point here is that in the playoffs, all you are literally going to see are the Michael Vicks, (Peyton) Mannings and Aaron Rodgers of the world. That 19 point spread difference is pretty large.
Pete’s “Fool’s Gold?” In the 10 games the Giants won vs these weaker QBs, they got 13 INTs. 1.3 INTs per game. In the 6 games the Giants lost vs these better QBs, the Giants got a GRAND TOTAL OF TWO INTERCEPTIONS. 0.3 INTs per game.
The question we have to raise to Mr. Fewell and Mr. Coughlin- what are you going to do to address this in 2011? Our suggestion- (1) use your talented and gifted Cornerbacks in Press Coverage up at the line of scrimmage much more (2) Use a lot less Cover 2 (3) Tell your Secondary that they can look at the eyes of the QB when that QB is inexperienced, but otherwise, forget about that idea. (4) Tell your boss Jerry Reese to get a LBer who can drop into coverage.
One more note: how appropos that Kitna would be at the top of one list and the bottom of the other list. Without overgeneralizing, the Giants lost to good QBs >90 and beat weaker QBs <90. Which ones do you expect to find in the playoffs? Are we here to applaud 10-6 or to win Championships? Check the banner at the top of the blog if you didn’t already know the answer to that rhetorical question.
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