2015 Free Agency Thoughts, Pt 2

The top 7 players on the Giants roster take up almost exactly half of the $141.8M cap.  Most teams have a similar structure.  The QB takes up a considerable amount of cap, plus a good pass rusher, a good defensive player, a WR and OLman all grab at that 50%.  This leaves 46 other players to share the other $71M, or 1.5M PER PLAYER.  The Giants signed 5 players on Tuesday when Free Agency started that are going to make an average of $3.1M per year.  There are enough guaranteed payments to make that # a reality.  So even if Harris and/or Casillas can make a sizeable contribution on Special Teams, we are still talking about A LOT OF MONEY for these guys.  That is why we tweeted that the work was underwhelming.  Everyone understands that the backups have to be there in order to make it through a season.  Depth matters.  But at 3.1M per, it was expensive.  Getting Vereen for pass catching duties is a big plus, but once again, at a cost.  Vereen had the highest salary and will likely make a respectable impact for McAdoo’s offense.  If Harris returns punts, that is one less way The Deliverer can get hurt. From that angle, at least they paid for that.

What about Safety?  Nat Berhe is probably the happiest man on the team.  He has a roster spot sewed up 4 months before camp starts.  That’s because he has a grand total of 32 snaps under his belt but is currently being challenged by only Cooper Taylor, who had a grand total of 5 snaps in all of 2013.  Yes 2013, not 2014.  I predict(ed on Twitter a couple of days ago) that the Giants will sign an underwhelming Safety in FA for more money than the player is worth.  Along with the rest of us, I was hoping Rolle would get a 2 year deal to come back to NY.  He’s older, but at 32 will be better than what they get, dollar for dollar.

Just a few hours after posting, we found out that Ron Parker had re-signed with the KC Chiefs.  The Giants were sniffing because he was a FA Safety with a body temperature of 98.6 degrees.  Thankfully for Reese, he was left behind in the auction, as the Giants were not among the final 3 who were competing for his services.  Parker is an average player. At best.  His pass coverage score on PFF is average.  His run coverage is below average.  How much should this have garnered?  Try $30MM for 5 years.  $6M/yr!  Ridiculous.  Dearth or no dearth, that is not value.  We asked the resident knower of all NFL players what Parker was worth, and Wonder’s answer was “$16M for 4 years.”  $2M/yr may not sound like a lot, but it adds up and will cost a team elsewhere.  Credit Reese with backing away on this one.  He’s made mistakes in overpaying before (Canty, Baas, Beason) but at least in this moment he is showing some kind of restraint.

Free Agency is vastly overrated.  Many free agrents just do not work out. And the ones that do take time to integrate into your system.  The level of trust (critical for success) that each player must build with his new teammates takes time.  We talked about this issue last season when the Giants opened the wallet and spent big money on a lot of players.  Interestingly, it is the Free Agency of 2014 (DRC, Beason, Schwartz, Jennings, & Ayers) that will probably be far more meaningful to the 2015 season.  If the Giants want to make a run in 2015, they need these 5 survivors of 2014 to carry plenty of water.

Beason took a paycut. The Giants need Beason on the field as the leader of that unit. Hopefully the veteran will have enough in the tank for one important campaign here in 2015.

By extension of the viewpoint that it takes time to integrate a lot of new players into an organization, we believe that teams that take on a lot of new free agents and teams who lose a lot of free agents are both similarly handed too much volatility/adversity to win it all that year.  Three teams who have seen exceptional turnover in 2015 are the Eagles, Saints and 49ers.  Between learning new systems and running through a wall for your fellow players, I believe it makes it a lot harder to win immediately.  I am not calling the Eagles’ season over before it starts because I have a lot of respect for Kelly.  But I just think at the end of the day there is a lot of change that is going to have to be absorbed; all it takes is one player on one play to not know his assignment and that play costs you.  It’s the repetiton, the practice, the knowing where your players are, the automatic-without-thinking execution of plays that makes championships.  

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