Hunger and motivation are difficult to quantify. You never truly know how far a player will go to get to the next level. Amani Toomer was a Round 2 WR who my father loved out of Michigan. He had a great motor. My father (who went to college in the Big Ten, and watches a lot of those games) regaled me with stories about Toomer. There was one where Toomer returned a punt and seemingly had to run sideways up and down the field to get the ball into the end zone. It was an incredible achievement. But Toomer’s first 3 seasons found the new Giant struggling. He was mired down on the WR depth chart and was holding onto his job via special teams. The trajectory was not good. 1 start his rookie year and then none in his 2nd year. 27 catches for 360 yards, still no starts in his 3rd year. During the offseason he took karate and went to a new level physically and mentally. During training camp of his 4th year he killed it in practice consistently. It earned him a starting job, and his 4th season saw 16 starts, 79 receptions and 1183 yards. He broke through where others in exactly the same spot may have just as easily withered away. Measuring that ability to fight through and survive is hard. Most of these prospects we discuss each year have never had to fight through like that to stay on the field.
I’ll take a tangent and plug Amani Toomer again. Most people will forget that Toomer had an ACL in 2006. Yet he fought back and contributed ENORMOUSLY to the Giants Super Bowl title in 2007. Do we win in Dallas in the Divisional round without that TD to start the game where he runs around 2-3 players and then skates down the sideline ~50 yards for a TD for a 7-0 lead? Do we win vs GB without the Toomer toe on the sideline where his body hits the frozen tundra at -5 degrees for the reception? This guy played 13 seasons in Blue. Warrior.
A lot of Round 1 & Round 2 prospects don’t make it. The numbers fall off even more precipitously for players taken in Rounds 3-7. And then there are the undrafted UFAs. How about a UFA LBer that outworked them all? Antonio Pierce was an undersized UFA who didn’t even get invited to the Combine. He signed and stuck with Washington (before getting signed away as a FA to the Gmen). Pierce studied film voraciously and made that extra effort to prove himself. He famously crossed off most of the LBers who were taken (ahead of him) in the draft, using that as motivation. How many times do we see a guy fall in the draft and that player all of a sudden has the extra motivation to prove himself?! Sometimes the best thing that can happen to a player is to be picked later. It wakes them up sooner and makes them aware of the amount of work that is going to be required of a professional athlete.
Wonder, when he evaluates players, measures desire a couple of ways. He wants to see these college players coming into the combine in top physical shape. If they are injured, obviously that is another matter. But assuming they are healthy, it is a red flag when they are out of shape. “This is the biggest (as much as 7 figure) meal ticket of these guys’ lives, realizing their dream. So why should I trust them AFTER they get their signing bonus when they are not ready to work before it?!”
It’s akin to showing up late for an interview. Get their early to that assure you are on time. NFL teams are looking for professionals who can manage responsibility to their organization and themselves. If you do not have the requisite maturity to be prepared, then why should someone take the risk on you? This is why Wonder will drop his grade on intangibles. This is why he will not reach on medical situations. In short, when there is more risk, there better be a better payout, and you do not get that payout when you draft them high.
Leadership is an intangible. Certain guys who are not leaders on the college level blossom and become leaders as pros. Go tell George Young that when he picked Michael Strahan in 1993 that this man would lead the Giants to a title in 2007. It is nearly impossible to imagine how this shy kid who was crying while on the field as a youngster would be the one with the charisma and respect of his peers to lead that locker room. Brandon Jacobs may seem like a hothead at times, but he was the one in the middle of the scrum who was whipping his teammates up emotionally before the game started. In the 2011 championship season, when the Giants were fighting through injuries, they played an emotional and charged game versus the Patriots. They came out on top. In the postgame locker room there was a celebration, and Coughlin was being lifted up wildly, thrown on one player’s “shoulders in a Super Bowl-like celebration” while every teammate was circled around. That player was the emotional leader, Brandon Jacobs.
One of the reasons why I do not like drafting WRs is that they are (collectively as a group) ego-filled primadonas. This site likes to quantify these perceptions, but I do not have the data on what percentage of Round 1 picks do not re-sign with the team they were drafted by. It is complicated by the fact that you do not necessarily know if a certain player was actively sought after by the original team when re-upping. But anecdotally my perception is that WRs recirculate often. They want to test their market value more than other players at different positions. I thought that Hakeem Nicks, as but one example, was a solid guy until he dogged it in 2013. He did not like that the Giants re-upped with Cruz but did not renegotiate with him. The result was 15 games and 0 TDs. You have to work hard not to do that. Injured or not, the cream of a player’s career is that one moment where he re-signs and you get him from age ~26-30. He’s got the experience, youth and continutity within your organization to excel. Unless he walks. The Giants have 3 more years on Beckham’s contract. Keeping him (assuming he is playing at a high level, injuries considered) from leaving is harder when he is a rock star WR, the alpha of the alphas. Teams can generally keep QBs (super alphas) because they understand the willingness to protect the franchise. The Giants can tag Eli Manning next year if something went wrong. But are you going to tag a WR, when that position is more replaceable? There are always WRs circulating. And the younger kids coming up through the ranks want to be WRs, so the stock of good ones is there. Growing up in the 1970’s, the alphas were (besides the QB) the RBs and LBers. Now they are the DEs and the WRs. Kids know this. A 6’2″ 220 lb kid used to want to be a LBer. Now they are named White or Cooper.
The drafting process is an incomplete evaluation. Some players have more question marks than others. Some players have bigger upside “potential.” Some players have bigger downside “bust” potential. Who is motivated more? Who is interested in the team’s interests ahead of their own? Who has the leadership skills that can assist your team in winning a title? Who has the medical issues that will cloud their career? Assessing these elements is much more difficult and adds to the volatility of any one draft pick. Hopefully over time a draft analyst or team will do what they can to either even out the short term luck and make the decisions that translate to better selections in the long run.
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