Let’s start with value here in Round 1 of the 2015 NFL draft. The Giants have the 9th pick in the draft. That is rare air. This is the highest slot the Giants have had since 2004 when they finished 4-12 and picked 4th overall. You want the value to match the spot where you are picking.
Our draft analyst, Wonder, only sees ~5 players that are worthy of a Top 15 pick in this year’s draft. Those 5 players are
- The 2 QBs, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariotta (…because they are QBs)
- Leonard Williams
- The 2 WRs, Amari Cooper and Kevin White
That’s it. Everyone else is not a Top 15 “value.” Now will there be stars that will surface in coming years from the rest of the pack? OF COURSE! But the point is that you do not pick Tom Brady in Round 1 just because a bird has whispered in your ear that he will be a Hall of Fame QB. Everything is value in the Draft. Yes, there will be some gems for the other 27 players selected in Round 1. But at this juncture none of those players have demonstrated that they are worthy of such a high pick.
If you are the Giants at 9, and none of those 5 players are still on the board, you trade down. Yes, Wonder would say that you go all-in and Draft one of the WRs if they are still there, put Cruz in the slot and hope your offense outscores the other team. But that ain’t happening. All 5 will be gone by the time the Gmen pick.
There are lots of mock drafts that project the Giants taking Iowa Offensive Lineman Brandon Scherff. This is a mistake. His value in near the end of Round 1, ~28th overall. Scherff will not be a dominant LT, which is what you pay for when you pick #9 overall. If he could be a total lockdown dominant interior lineman, that would be another way to get to 9. But he is not that either. So why are you picking this player at 9th overall? Trade down if you want to take him. And if someone else picks him higher, take someone else.
Who does Wonder really like in this draft? Beyond Williams, White and Cooper, there are 3 names that come up that garner this NY Giants blog analyst’s strong interest:
- DT Arik Armstead
- OT Andrus Peat
- OT Ereck Flowers
NONE OF THESE 3 ARE WORTH A 9th PICK OVERALL. This is the discipline and value of the Draft. This is how the Draft works. We are operating in the wake of the fluke of flukes, the once in a 30 year event (well, 33 years, to be exact) of finding a total complete superstar like Lawrence Taylor or Odell Beckham. Do not think Beckhams and Taylors. Think the other 32 years of fits and starts, of guys who you want to be 10 year starters who will contribute meaningfully. Will Armstead, Peat or Flowers become a superstar? VERY DOUBTFUL. So stop falling in love with your own preferences, trade down to ~18-20 and pick one of these 3, who will hopefully still be on the board. You will pick up another 2nd Round draft pick for the trouble; that guy could be the difference between you being a Super Bowl contender or not.
Please stop with the “but that assumes you can trade down…” argument. None of us were born yesterday. Of course there is a lot of work to do in trading (up or) down. The time to be working on those deals is NOW. Every year. As an example, you call up teams ~18-19 and tell them now that if they are interested in your pick- the rate is their 1&2 for your 1. No one deals now but you get interest. Better yet, you close the deal by pulling a Patriot: take their 1 this year and their 2 next year, so that they feel better about their deal and the bill comes due in 2016. Final approval happens when you are on the clock, but the terms are set weeks in advance to get everyone ready.
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