When our draft analyst, Wonder, looks at a college prospect, he sees a relief map. He projects where a player will get to in the Pros but he also gets a sense of their ceiling and floor. Ceiling is potential upside. Floor is worst case. You’ve seen him at times label a player feast or famine. That’s another way of saying he has the potential to be great (high ceiling) and the potential to be a bust (low floor). The cynics out there will respond- oh great, isn’t that every prospect in the draft? Unequivocally, the answer is no. There is tremendous value in being able to articulate a player’s ceiling and floor to understand the risk reward value proposition.
We bring up this concept of ceiling and floor today because we talk a little bit about some players that Wonder did not put on his list of 6 prospects for the NY Giants to consider with the 10th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
OLB Myles Jack was a player who Wonder would have had at the very top of his Draft board this year. He was the total package. Absolute beast. And then something happened. Last September he tore his lateral miniscus and underwent knee surgery. Jack proclaims his knee is better than ever. But here is the rub- as soon as you enter the Pros with a knee surgery it is a condition which lowers your floor. You get one more bite of the apple. Stay healthy and you can have a terrific career. OR, another surgery and your upside is effectively finished. The medical condition puts an asterisk on the evaluation and you have to now weigh a great risk vs that reward. It makes the eval harder at a minimum because uncertainty is there. And the way Wonder evaluates the Draft, uncertainty is not an option in Round 1, and most certainly not at the 10th pick overall for the Giants. It’s called gambling. It’s high ceiling and low floor. And with so much other talent out there, Wonder says simply, “I pass on Myles Jack and let someone else take that risk.” Can the player you draft also get a knee injury which requires surgery? Yes. There are risks for any selection. But Jack ALREADY has had knee surgery, and one more injury to that knee will make him ordinary. Let it go and don’t add to that medical risk. His position (OLB) demands speed and aggressiveness. He may have it his whole career and play like he played in college at the pro level. He may not. Is it worth the risk of your 10th pick? No. There are plenty of other players with almost as much ceiling and a way higher floor. We have identified six, two of which will likely be there at the 10th slot. So stop gambling and start investing. Every prospect is a gamble to a certain degree. Why gamble more? It is not necessary.
UltimateNYG NY Giants blog would love nothing more than to have a stellar 3-down LBer on the field. The last time we got that in the draft was Jessie Armstead. That’s a perfect and appropriate comparison. Armstead’s draft stock plummeted because he too got hurt in college. Armstead tore his ACL in his sophomore year. Every team in the league, including the Giants, stayed away and passed on him. Until the Giants took him in Round 8. Now that’s a risk you take, George Young. Every GM that year, including Young, needs to be berated for not taking a chance a little sooner. NOT ROUND 1. But try Round 5. Or Round 6. Or for the astute Mr. Young, Round 8. Medical surgery has gotten better in the last 25 years, for sure. At a certain place in the draft you take the risk of low floor due to injury because he still has a high ceiling if he remains healthy thereafter. But not Round 1. Let someone else take that risk because you don’t have to.
Another player who Wonder omitted from his list of candidates for the Giants in Round 1 at the 10th pick overall this year is WR Laquon Treadwell. Treadwell is enticing. He can be an absolute beast. Before breaking his fibula and dislocating his ankle, he would have been rated slightly better than AJ Green, who Wonder had ranked as the 3rd best prospect in the entire draft in 2011. “Treadwell can be the absolute bomb home run, but that gruesome injury means I can no longer take him at 10 in the Draft.”
Moving away from injuries, we go to a different kind of evaluation for Running Back. This site has repeatedly over the past few years explained why Running Back makes little sense in the 21st Century NFL in Round 1 in the Draft. Wonder disagrees with me slightly in my dogmatic view. He says that I am correct to be against RBs in Round 1, but where he disagrees is if he can find an Adrian Peterson, he will draft that guy in Round 1. Wonder loved Gurley as a freshman at Georgia, and felt he was going to be ‘AP’-like in terms of super ceiling. But he got hurt before he was finished with college and Wonder lowered Gurley from top overall to 8th. We set this all up because our next guy we do not consider for the 10th pick overall is RB Ezekiel Elliott. Wonder on Elliott: “Elliott is going to be a very good football player. He will be a very good Running Back in the NFL. Will he be AP? No! He may even light it up for a year or two. But at this point I would still prefer a David Johnson to Elliott, so why do I take him? It is easier to fill that position! Leaving a CB on an island? Or finding a LT who can protect my (QB) franchise’s blind side? Those positions are harder to find. So I drop Elliott from the discussion of the Giants, certainly at 10th overall.”
The evaluation and consideration of Treadwell and Elliott went front and center when we saw this tweet from Glenn Warciski of NYG Underground:
@NYGunderground Ugh. Haven’t they learned anything? Doesn’t the Defense still have many holes? Doesn’t the O have greatest need at OL (RT)?
— Andy Furman (@UltimateNYG) April 6, 2016
My reaction was swift. I would have to imagine that if Glenn is correct (he was absolutely correct, and first, with inside word about Coughlin’s demeanor after being let go), that that means the Giants are looking seriously at Treadwell or Elliott. We pass on both, for many different reasons stated above and (tweeted comment re) needs.
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