Generally speaking, our Draft analyst Wonder believes that 2016 is a weak class. That starts with his belief that all 3 QBs who are featured prominently in Round 1 discussions are not Round 1 quality. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch are not Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, whether they get drafted in those spots or not. And given the move by the Rams to trade up to the top pick to grab a QB (Goff is being cited), that means we could have two QBs picked at the very top picks with neither worth a Round 1 value. These guys are not Andrew Luck or (pre-injured) RGIII. Yet here we are in 2016 staring at QBs being overdrafted yet again. Wonder got some major verification points for panning Christian Ponder as a possible bust in 2011, ranking him 103rd best in his class while the Vikings picked at 12th overall. He’s been out of football since 2014. We cite players like Ponder because it is extremely valuable to understand how crazy it gets with teams in the quest to find someone to play that position. That the Rams would go to such lengths, mortgaging everything to draft Goff or Wentz, is folly. For Luck or RGIII, yes. For anyone in 2016, no.
QB Carson Wentz– Wentz has more potential than Goff. But he is still not a known commodity. Big, strong, can throw the ball. Played against bad players in Division 2 in a non-Pro situation. So too many question marks about how he fits in the NFL. How you take him in Round 1, let alone the top of the draft, is simply a mistake. Can he be a good NFL QB? Oh Yeah! But there is no certainty. Take him at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2 and let him develop. So we are not saying he can’t deliver. We are saying, at what cost??
QB Jared Goff– Most “Pro-ready” of the QB class. But I question his overall size/skill/strength/ability to read the field. In terms of comps, like an Alex Smith, except not as mobile. That’s not a Round 1 investment. Alex Smith ended up as a serviceable #15-20 QB in the NFL, to hold the fort down on a very good team. Not a difference-maker. And that is what we project Goff’s upside to be in the NFL. Underwhelming for a Round 1 pick, let alone a Top 10 (or Top 2 yikes) pick in the entire Draft.
QB Paxton Lynch– Tough to figure out. Either out of the league in a few years or might surprise and become a pretty good QB. Needs work, training. Kind of guy like Kaepernick, he should go in Round 2 and if he makes it, ok, if he does not, not end of the world for who takes him. The investment cannot be huge. If some team reaches into the Top 20 to take this guy, they are truly desperate. I need to know the system he is going to be in and whether he has a QB guru that suits him. So yes, he might flourish in one franchise and fail in another. Bill Walsh manicured Joe Montana out of the 3rd Round and got gold. Do you think Montana has the same career with the Detroit Lions? Absolutely no bleeping way. As an example, why would the Jets trade Mo Wilkerson and move up to take one of these guys when they have Bryce Petty sitting there? Develop him, see what you have. Don’t go reaching for these 2016 candidates.
WR Laquon Treadwell– One word describes him: SAD. Why? Because he got his leg totally ripped up. We talked about him in Part 2. Would have been the Class of the WRs here in 2016, a Top 10 draft pick. But now it is simply too risky. I do not roll the dice in Round 1. He ran a 4.63 in his Pro Day, which is NOT what he would have run w/o getting hurt. Sad. Still has potential, but not as a Top 10 Round 1 stud.
T Jack Conklin– Good, solid. Now here is a guy who is country strong. Significant step below Ronnie Stanley. Run blocking solid, but can’t pass block at the ultra NFL vs speed rushers. Okay to take at 26-35, not at 10. Has to fit system. Needs to be a RT in a run-type of system. Like for Rams, Jets, Bills, Vikings.
T Taylor Decker– I would take Decker slightly below Conklin, early Round 2. 2nd Tier OT. A little bit too stiff for my liking. In contrast to Jonathan Ogden, who had tree trunks for legs but could bend, run, and pummel… Decker does not bend as well and has shorter arms for his size.
LB Leonard Floyd– Interesting in terms of potential. Needs to gain weight. Needs to fill out and become an NFL man. Serious serious (did we say serious?) potential. Reminds me a little bit of John Abraham. Could become a 4-3 pass rusher if he gains 20 lbs. I’d rather him do that than be a LBer. His cover skills as a LBer are ok but not fantastic. Maximum utility is to make him an edge rusher, preferably as a 4-3 DE. Abraham was bigger and stronger out of South Carolina. But I see that kind of potential. He could be unblockable as a pass rusher off the edge. He is a hybrid of Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews. So he could play a 3-4 OLB (like Kalil Mack or Von Miller), but he could also get his hand in the dirt as 4-3 DE. But he needs to gain weight and strength for that. I am intrigued by big fast strong guys. Can’t teach big and fast, but you can teach strong (via proper good flexibility and strength training). His body can carry another 20 lbs WITHOUT COMPROMISING HIS SPEED. So what do you pay for a guy like this??? If he had already gained the 20 lbs as muscle, he would be a top 3 draft pick overall. Right now, at 244 lbs., he can only play rush LBer (because he is too slight to take on Tackles and pulling Guards). So he cannot seal the edge in the 3-4 OLB. With that said, he has huge potential and it is up to each team to figure out how to use him. It will take one year to do this transition. The training staff needs to evaluate and participate in the decision to draft him.
LB Darron Lee– Overrated out of Ohio State. Good ball player, take at end of R1, early Round 2. Knows how to play football, good football IQ, but needs to be surrounded by good players. And in the NFL Draft you pick Round 1 for studs and surround THEM, not the other way around.
LB Reggie Ragland– Really good interior LBer from Alabama. Runs well, , tackling machine. But if you are looking for the next Luke Kuechley, sorry, he is not that guy. He is not Kuechley, Mayo, Bowman or Willis. He is worth a 25-32nd pick. Match need. Not for the Giants at the 10th pick overall. If you like a guy like this and you are at 10, trade the F down.
DE Joey Bosa– Stay away in the Top 10. He is getting compared to JJ Watt. JJ Watt is farm strong and this guy is not farm strong. I was not impressed by his combine numbers and I was not impressed by his college play to the degree that others are. He does not have the closing speed to get to the QB. His on field performance will match mediocre measurables. JJ Watt did not have great measurables. Neither did Bosa. The difference is that Watt played so strong and so physical on the field in college. Bosa is not Watt. Not even a poor facsimile of Watt.
DE Kevin Dodd– He cannot hold Shaq Lawson’s jock strap. Needs to gain some weight and play a 5 technique in a 3-4 defense. Cannot see him as a speed rusher. So why do I take that ahead of Lawson?! End of R1 or even early R2 at best. Projected as a solid starter, nothing special.
DT Jarran Reed– Pretty good, solid lineman. 4-3 DT, maybe a 3-4 NT, but not going to get to the passer. So do not take him in Round 1. End of discussion.
DT A’Shawn Robinson– This is everything we talk about re DT on UltimateNYG blog. He will take years to develop as a DT. By his 3rd year he will be pretty good, then the Giants let him walk (see Linval Joseph) for money somewhere else. Don’t take him in Round 1. He will be overdrafted by someone else.
CB Eli Apple– A pretty good CB. Nothing to write home about. Not a R1 pick. He is simply not a smooth shutdown corner. He will be a solid starter for you, but not worth a heavy investment. Remember that this was the same type of assessment that Wonder gave to Prince Amukamara, whom he had ranked in the early part of Round 2. To quote Denny Green, he was who we thought he was. So we see Eli Apple the same way, a solid CB who will be overdrafted. At best, Apple can be taken at the end of Round 1. There are plenty of mocks where he’s going in the low teens. Mistake.
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