This NY Giants blog strives for objectivity. We predicted somewhere between 6 and 7 wins last year. It was not because we loved the team any less. It was because we looked at what the team had and did not want to bias ourselves or our readers. I think this objectivity gives us additional credibility when we turn around in 2015 and go the opposite direction- ULTIMATENYG IS BULLISH ON 2015. Right now, I am thinking either 10-6 or 11-5. We’ll explain why later in this post.
Of course a lot of things will happen between now and when the season starts, so this is not the final prediction. During preseason we will know a lot more about:
- where Cruz is
- Beason’s health
- how the rookies are doing
- are younger returning players making the leap
- the ultimate enigma… JPP
- how quickly is the new Defensive playbook being absorbed
… so our final forecast before the season starts will supercede this one. Barring major injuries, we do not expect it to change much.
I always find amusement in people who assess a team (like the Giants) by talking about the year the stars will have. The first names off their lips will be Eli and OBJ. Eli Manning and OBJ are not going to define the 2015 season. For sure, these players will be making plays and are obviously very important. They are critical. But you know what you have in these people. They will not be the variables that change whether the Giants can go the distance or not. It is their supporting cast that will determine how far the team goes.
- If Ereck Flowers has a “serviceable” rookie year, I will be thrilled. (We believe the young rookie will not be making meaningful and consistent contributions until his 2nd-3rd year.)
- Who will we see- the JPP that got a combined 34 sacks/hits/hurries in his first 12 weeks, or the one who got 26 in the last 4 weeks?
- Will young players like Kennard (optimistic), Moore (enigma) and Hankins (most optimistic) make leaps in 2015?
- We already heard about Landon Collins’ rookie minicamp, and how he was already leading players around on assignments. His maturation alone and readiness for Game 1 is worth as much as 1 or 2 games in the Win column this year because of how threadbare the team was at Safety.
- Paul Schwartz’s report that DE Owa Odighizuwa was the rookie who flashed the most was exciting, because it means that Spagnuolo will be able to have more of his rotating DL pressure that he needs for his Defensive scheme to be successful.
So why are we bullish in 2015 where we were generally unoptimistic in 2014? The answer, in two words, is McAdoo and Spagnuolo. Coughlin is as good and as bad as his coordinators. So far, we like what we have in McAdoo, and we know what we have in Spagnuolo. Turnover of core personnel was not high, so that is a plus in continuity. (This was a reason for caution in 2014, and we correctly biased ourselves negatively due to this dynamic.) JPP went out showing more flashes, so we lean toward that kind of productivity being seen in 2015. McAdoo’s offense is now engrained in the team, so no learning curve is required for Eli and the veterans. The thought of having Eli, OBJ, Cruz, Randle, Jennings, Vereen, Donnely & Williams being supported by a much more solid OL makes the upside of the offense scary. If the defense comes together after the first 8 weeks of the season, the team will be ultracompetitive. Injuries have been a persistent problem, but if they improve at all, it will mean the suffering from the past seasons is behind us.
People do not understand how good Hankins and Ellis are. I know about Ellis because Wonder is a psycho Jet fan and he told me. He will be a solid run stopper. I know about Hankins because his play impressed us in 2014. It also objectively jumped out on paper with the highest grade of any player on PFF for the Giants this past season. Entering his 3rd year, this is when Defensive Linemen bloom. So I am thinking Hankins is going to have a very big year. Hankins and Ellis will help our LBers in run defense. And if we are in nickel most of the year with Beason and Kennard as our LBers, we should be good there. There are obviously question marks in the Secondary (can McBride cover the slot, can our “rookies” handle Safety), but I think the pass rush can be back well enough to help them. Apologies for the callousness of this remark- Kiwi was the deadwood on pass rush that needed to be jettisoned.
It is extremely important to remember that many games last season were hotly contested. If you were not paying attention, 2013’s 7-9 was a complete fraud compared to last year’s 6-10 season. Last year the team was much more competitive. We are not implying that the 2014 Giants was something to be particularly proud of. Merely, that the 2014 team was not that far away from being a lot better. Let’s walk through each game.
DET- BAD LOSS
AZ- Giants beat themselves vs an unworthy QB and a punt return for a TD
HOU- Nice WIN
WASH- CRUSHING WIN
ATL- WIN vs bad team
PHL- BAD LOSS
DAL- Donnell fumble costs them chance to possibly win the game
IND- BAD LOSS
SEA- Competitive game through almost 3 quarters. Fewell will not be missed for completely blowing the read option.
SF- Failure after 1st and Goal at the 4
DAL- No pass rush at end, or else Giants can win the game
JAX- Giants beat themselves
TEN- Garbage opponent WIN
WAS- Garbage opponent WIN
STL- Nice WIN
PHL- Giants beat themselves, had opptys, PHL punt block for TD
It is noteworthy that we still have Tom Quinn, that underwhelming Special Teams coach, back in 2015. That gives caution.
With a glass half full, there were ~6 winnable games here that were losses. You are what your record says you are. The 2014 team could not win those games. But the 2015 team has to know that they are not that far off from turning things around. We are not trying to imply the Giants could be 12-4 based on this. We are just trying to say that the difference between winning and losing in the NFL is not a lot. The Giants got better by adding Spags and an offense that is now in its second year. We think that the offense has the ability to close out a few games it did not and comeback in a few games it did not. It remains to be seen how quickly Spagnuolo can turn things around on Defense, but it can’t be much worse that what we had in 2014. Just a small amount of improvement plus slightly better health will translate to a very good season.
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