Bullish on the 2015 Giants- Part 2

In the first post this past weekend, we discussed some macro arguments for why the Giants could win between 10 or 11 games this coming season.  Among those points:

• OC Ben McAdoo’s offense has been learned.  Players are no longer thinking, they are just playing.
• DC Steve Spagnuolo is a significant upgrade who can make in-game adjustments and put his players in a position to succeed.
• There are a number of younger players who are ready to make a significant contribution this season.
• The OL is coming together.
• Injuries in 2015 cannot be any worse than 2013 and 2014.  Any randomness will mean improvement from 32nd out of 32 teams.
• The team was competitive in many games in 2014. A small difference will mean wins replace losses.
• The continuity of the roster in 2015 should provide stability and improvement after the influx from 2014.
• JPP finished on a stronger note, and we expect that to carry through to 2015.
• OBJ will only get better. A healthy Cruz could make the Giants offense a juggernaut in 2015.

So with the macro summarized, let’s look now at the micro.  We use last year’s methodology to handicap the 16 game season objectively.  This year we just reversed the sign (on “score”) to make it more logical.

Here are the Over/Under’s for 2015. This will change, and we will update it before Week 1.  The Giants are 8.5 wins.  That already by itself is significant.  Why is a team that finished 6-10 forecast to win 8.5?  That is a poker tell right there.  Vegas understands that the Giants will be better this season.

The key to this micro analysis is this question- Do the Giants split with the Cowboys and Eagles?  We believe yes.  The Eagles have undergone a tremendous amount of turnover.  Turnover in personnel means mistakes, as your starters are not performing in unison.  So the Giants can win one of those games.  And the Giants were competitive last year vs Dallas in both games, especially in the 2nd contest at home.  So we expect the Giants to grab one of those games as well.

Objectively the analysis argues 9 wins.  Conservatively it argues for 10 wins.  And if the Giants split with the Eagles & Dallas, and take one of two vs fairly evenly matched NO and MIA, that argues 11 wins.  When you walk through each game, it is not a reach.  It is not unreasonable.  All the Giants need are a few things to break their way in terms of personnel (ie Cruz back at 80-90% effectiveness, JPP amassing a solid pass rush, and Beason to be healthy) and 11 wins is very achievable.  Also note how the Giants finish the year stronger than when they started.  This fits because the first ~half of the year will come with some bumps as Spagnuolo’s system is absorbed by the defensive players.  The way this falls out, the Giants could be 5-5 and run off the last 6 games for 11-5.  That actually seems somewhat plausible.  Ideally, the Giants can find their identity in this stretch, maybe in a loss to NE again where they come together and realize they have the pieces to make a run. Guys like Flowers (experience), Collins (experience), Kennard (reaction times), and Cruz (health) will be BETTER in the 2nd half of the season.

Just like we were skeptical last year and saw plenty of opportunities for losses, we see how 2015 has plenty of opportunities for wins.  It’s the Giants turn.