This site has made a point of verifying our track record in draft predictions. Wonder, the Draft analyst for UltimateNYG NY Giants blog, has once again bested the GMs using their own option as a filter of performance.
GMs had a 5th year option on Round 1 picks from the 2011 draft. They chose their players and we compared the ones exercised vs the ones abandoned.
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GMs had a 5th year option on Round 1 picks from the 2012 draft. They chose their players and we compared the ones exercised vs the ones abandoned.
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To review, in 2011, this site beat the GM’s by +1 spot for the players exercised and +32 spots for the one’s that were abandoned (many who have busted). In plain English, for stark comparison, Wonder took the players at an average location of 53rd in the draft when they did not work out vs the average of 21st overall for GMs. In 2012, the GMs beat Wonder by 3 for those exercised, but Wonder beat the GMs by an average of +13 on the ones where the option did not get exercised. The net for 2011 was +33 slots in the draft, and the net for 2012 was +9 slots. While Wonder was not able to whip the GMs as badly in 2012, he did outdraft them in this objective measure again. Clearly, as we have demonstrated on a few occasions, Wonder’s true skill is in identifying the players who have downside potential. He and the GMs are very close on the winners. Whether it is comparing players exercised or draft slot taken for pro bowl players, the GMs as a group and Wonder come out virtually tied each year. But when the players are not exercised, that is the comparison where Wonder separates himself. He busts less. A lot less.
Wonder’s ability to bust less is also seen in our selection of Giants draft picks historically side by side with Jerry Reese. We agree with and would have taken Flowers and Collins, as the Giants did in Round 1 and Round 2.
Trade down or take Ereck Flowers. Or Bud Dupree at MLB {not OLB}
— Andy Furman (@UltimateNYG) May 1, 2015
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I am very happy. We had Landon Collins ranked 24th in this draft. The Giants got him at 33, they got a Safety, it was aggressive but smart.
— Andy Furman (@UltimateNYG) May 1, 2015
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsBut along with the selection of Will Beatty in 2009, those are the only 3 picks we agreed on. The rest disagreed, and Wonder again busted less than Reese, thus distancing his performance from the Giants GM.
This site’s draft analysis is different. We think independently and freely. While others just jumble their top 32, we will not be afraid to drop a guy 10, 20 30 or 40 spots lower than the GMs. And because we verify, you can see the results. Have you heard of Bruce Irvin? He is an OLB taken 15th overall by Seattle. Wonder ranked him 66th. That is 51 picks later. His option was not exercised. He is not a bad player. Wonder had him projected as a solid starter. That is what he is, good not great. That is how Wonder adds value to our information and discussion of the draft. And because we verify, it assures you confidence that the information you are getting here is increasing your knowledge of what is going on.
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