August’s Five Best Starting Pitchers
It seems like pitchers are always evaluated by the same traditional metrics, such as win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and walks allowed per nine innings. This is why we go against the grain and evaluate pitcher performance by SIERA.
SIERA attempts to measure the underlying skill of a hurler, but unlike FIP and xFIP, it doesn’t ignore balls put in play, and also attempts to give a more accurate picture as to why certain pitchers are better than others. A good SIERA is just like a good ERA — the lower the better.
Here’s the group that distinguished themselves on the bump this month.
If Justin Verlander being at the top of this list sounds familiar, it’s because he was also July’s best starting pitcher. He appears to be a machine and is once again in the thick of the AL’s Cy Young race. The veteran righty has struggled with the home-run ball all year, but his 1.39 homers allowed per nine innings in August was actually his lowest of any month. Verlander has generally picked it up a notch since the All-Star break, as his ERA (2.98 to 2.04), strikeout rate (31.5% to 41.3%), and walk rate (5.3% to 3.2%) have all improved dramatically.
We just spent a good chunk of virtual ink on Yu Darvish and how clutch he’s been for the Chicago Cubs lately, so we don’t want to repeat ourselves too much here. Seriously, though, he’s regained his control in a ridiculous way. Here’s how his walk rate has changed through month this season: 16.9%, 13.2%, 6.8%, 1.7%, 0.8%. He’s also seen his strand rate go from 62.5% in June to 81.2% in July before settling in at a (very unsustainable) 97.4% in August.
Although the Chicago White Sox are headed for yet another losing season, there have been a number of bright spots to get excited about. Lucas Giolito absolutely falls into that category. He accomplished what we see in the table above after struggling to a 5.65 ERA through 28.2 innings in July, too. His changeup has been a huge weapon all year — Giolito’s usage rate of it has risen by about 10 percentage points. That offering has yielded a 77 wRC+ and 33.5% strikeout rate so far in 2019 (86 wRC+ and 23.1% strikeout rate in ’18).
Although Walker Buehler‘s season-long hard-hit rate has risen about seven percentage points this year (42.6%), he’s managed to keep his BABIP allowed down at .294. After coming out of the gate slowly in March/April with a 5.22 ERA in his first 29.1 innings, Buehler has produced a monthly ERA over 3.00 just once since then (it was 3.20 in July). So he’s been tossing the pill at an elite level for a while.
Luis Castillo is the one hurler who doesn’t fit on this list because of his 5.70 ERA. But clearly, his SIERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate tell a much different story. It also helps partially explain how he still ended up with a 3-1 record in August. What’s been encouraging about Castillo as the season has worn on is that he’s found a way to harness his control. Here’s what his monthly walk rates have looked like: 10.0%, 13.4%, 16.5%, 5.5%, and 3.3%.
About Matt Musico
Matt Musico currently manages Chin Music Baseball and contributes to The Sports Daily. His past work has been featured at numberFire, Yahoo! Sports and Bleacher Report. He’s also written a book and created an online class about how to get started as a sports blogger. Check those out and more helpful tips on sports blogging at his website.
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