These are the moments I am glad that we blog. We fill a need. We speak to issues that need discussing while the mainsteam media is silent. You, our community, get to share these ideas and bypass the agenda of the mainstream.
The issue about NY Giants serial injuries was first discussed here in October 2014. The mainstream media, via the NY Times, did a story about injuries wreaking havoc in the NFL. They matter-of-factly noted that the Giants (at ~midseason) were the 2nd most injured team in the NFL in 2014, with 11 players on season ending Injured Reserve/short term IR, or PUP. The Colts had the highest losses at that juncture.
UltimateNYG knew the Giants were the #1 team in injuries, via Football Outsiders, in 2013. We rolled up our sleeves and did our homework. By going back 6 years, we were able to pick up on a distinct and clear trend where the Giants were ranked progressively worse each year.
When Beatty went down last month for 5-6 months with a torn pec, we went to work again and this time we compiled all of the data (with 2014 now complete) from Football Outsiders from the last 6 years for ALL of the NFL teams. We showed that the Giants and Colts were outliers; 30 teams were in a bell-shaped distribution and these 2 other teams were separated from the rest.
Between the NY Giants finishing in last place in starts lost to injuries in 2013 (“AGL”), a back to back performance at the bottom again in 2014, Beatty out with a torn pec, and then Beckham being limited in OTAs with a hamstring problem in the opposite leg from 2014, there was a lot here to investigate. We investigated the data.
The mainstream media yawned.
Why the mainstream media has not shown more than even the slightest interest in this issue is perplexing. Are they so tight with team sources, so beholden to their access, that they can’t ask these questions? Or do they just swallow the party line and accept that it is all luck?
Some bloggers and online columns picked up on what we were talking about. WarrenSharpFootball did a piece that truncated the data, doing a 2 year review instead of a 6 year review. This got more eyeballs and was summarily dismissed, because after all, anything can happen in 2 years. Plus the Giants ostensibly were doing everything they could, using high tech equipment to get better. Except they aren’t getting better. They made changes in 2013 and yet they got hammered again with injuries.
This is NOT a 2 year problem. We went well past what even football outsiders themselves did, aggregating their own data. Only then is the picture much more clear. Anything can happen in a shorter period of time. The longer cycles should be where enough opportunity is present for things to even themselves out. Except the Colts and Giants were not spared. They were the only two teams who were below average every one of the past 6 years. They kept showing up at the bottom. Luck averaged out for most teams, but not for these two.
Since there is no direct smoking gun, the naysayers throw their hands up in the air and say we do not know, so what can the Giants do?! They conveniently look at 2 years of data instead of 6 years and answer questions with more questions. Since there probably are more than a few variables and more than a few people who may have contributed to the problem, let’s hold NONE of them accountable! For starters, whatever the head coach wants to do about strength, it is still the S&C coach who has to dictate what (and how that) can get done. Regarding the impact of the GM, we systematically researched the effect of injury contribution from the high profile Free Agency signings and found no precursor to injury contributions from that group (see Luke Richesson link below). Even if the head coach and GM are partially responsible for making the job of the S&C coach harder, so are their peers at many other teams. The gap between the Colts + Giants is so wide from that of any other team that there has to be a significant deficiency from S&C practices. And then the other excuse- hey, we can’t babysit these guys in the offseason, so how can you hold the S&C coach responsible?… there are 32 freaking teams that have the same rules and the same babysitting problems. EVERY TEAM HAS THE SAME PROBLEMS. The Giants just do not address them adequately.
Here is a radical thought- if you are in a hole, stop digging. The Giants are in an injury hole, so they give their strength and conditioning coach a shovel. I am going to make a tremendous leap here- I am willing to bet that the Giants will finish 2015 in the bottom half again for AGLs. (Take my bet here and I will give you the opportunity to call me on it if somehow the Giants reverse this 6 year trend.) I am also willing to bet that the Colts do as well. Why? Because there is something structurally wrong with the overall health and conditioning program, and it has not gotten fixed because the same people who are in charge are making more mistakes than average. Jerry Palmieri has been the Giants S&C coach for 12 years. Markus Paul has been the assistant to Mr. Palmieri for 9 years. Joe Danos is in his 3rd year as an assistant to Mr. Palmieri. I do not see change. I see more of the same, even if they are trying new things. I am sure these 3 men work very hard. The giants.com biographies for the 2 assistants do not indicate prior experience with other NFL teams where we can at least have a paper trail of results. So while I am grateful for any change made INSIDE the program, I would posit that answers need to come from fresh ideas OUTSIDE the program.
Soft tissue injuries vs bone breaks? I’m not a doctor, but I have enough common sense to know that over larger periods of time these things should average out for those using proper advanced techniques. As a reminder, John Fox admits being surprised yet enlightened by the radical (read: NEW) approach that Richesson took the Broncos on.
Some other online writers note the effect of the CBA of 2011. Damn that CBA, they note.. it is creating more injuries for our sorry Giants of New Jersey! When I hear arguments like this, I want to scream. These are the weak attempts of meek apologists who do not give this more than a superficial amount of thought. Once again, EVERYONE HAS THE SAME CBA ISSUE TO MANAGE. All 32 teams are forced to adapt. And yes, collectively, there are more injuries in the NFL in the last 4 years after the new CBA was passed. When you look at teams versus the averages of their PEERS, it should not matter.
In terms of actual data, in the 2 seasons prior to the CBA, the average team had 52.4 AGLs per season. In the 4 years following the CBA, that average is up to 66.6, which is a 27% increase. Yes, that is significant. The Giants? They increased by +92% AGLs. So if you want to blame the CBA for giving the Giants more injuries, that is mostly irrelevant to the issue of contention. The issue, as a reminder, is about serial underperformance vs the rest of the NFL. The Giants were losing more starts than the NFL average before the CBA and they are losing more starts than the NFL average to injury after the CBA. Yet they are not held accountable. They need to be held responsible for managing the new landscape. Who is directly in charge of this? The strength and conditioning coach. And when this problem is only getting worse each year despite all efforts, what do you do? You go in a different direction. Stop digging. Remember, there are 16 teams EACH season who seem to be managing ok.
Could it be that the CBA is the catalyst for the acceleration in the Giants woes? Quite possibly! In fact, the data implies that. But that does not exonerate anyone from the NY Giants internally. In fact, it argues that change is required because the Giants have probably not been changing along with the CBA. And do not blame Coughlin directly for that- his assistant’s job is to manage this. The only thing Coughlin gets held responsible for is not going in a different direction after so many years of underperformance here. As we have said before, Coughlin is as good and as bad as the coordinators he surrounds himself with. We have been on record numerous times in asking for a replacement for Palmieri. This is where Coughlin’s responsibility lies.
Here is the interesting thing about fresh faces. They do not know any other way. Chip Kelly comes in with his bag of tricks, and he does not know how to assist his players with health from any other time in NFL history EXCEPT under the (new) CBA. So he starts with a clean slate. The Giants slate is 20 years old. I have an answer- get a fresh face in to change what you are doing. Hire away one of Luke Richesson’s assistants in Denver. If the kid has half a clue, he’ll be able to reduce injuries by 20%. If he has been trained well or has a strong grasp of what is being done, he’ll reduce injuries by 40-50% and get the Giants back into the middle of the pack. Remember, Luke Richeson is not some rocket scientist who finishes first every year in fewest starts lost to injury. He is merely one of many teams that is doing a reasonable job versus his peers. When head coaches or coordinators underperform for 3 or 4 years in a row, they are shown the door. The same criteria should be used for assistants as well.
It would be nice if the mainstream media would discuss this issue of 6 consecutive years of underperformance with injuries. When does the issue become a story for them? Apparently that is another story. At least we are having a discussion amongst the bloggers. I may disagree with their data size and their conclusions, but at least they are talking about the problem. The major news outlets and beat writers are so silent on the issue that it is alarming. Isn’t there something worth investigating when you outperform or underperform? Isn’t it interesting that Sharp Football’s graphic with the cool NFL logos (sorry folks, I just chew the data) gets passed around for enough to see, yet no one asks what happened BEFORE the last 2 years? That is where the story takes you. The silence is deafening.
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