Nail Yakupov and Expected Return

On Sunday night, Oilers F Nail Yakupov’s trade request went public. I went into detail on that here, but essentially I believe that Yakupov was going to be moved anyway by the Oilers this summer and that both sides are much better off with a splitting of ways, call it a clean slate for both.

Of course, since this trade request went public, everyone has stated their opinion on what they think the forward is worth. Oilers Now’s Bob Stauffer, via a twitter transcription, hinted at the possible return on his show on Tuesday afternoon.

“Maybe you get a 2nd or a B prospect for Yakupov” – Stauffer

— Sick Notweak (@akaRCN) March 29, 2016

Probably not the return that Oilers fans were hoping for with this player, right? In fact, Matt Henderson expressed his displeasure at the rumored return on Twitter.

The Oilers are apparently weighing a 2.5M winger who can play on the top line against a 2nd + B prospect and the magic beans are winning

— Matt Henderson (@Archaeologuy) March 29, 2016

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Now, while I disagree with Matt’s sentiment on Yakupov being a guy that can play top line minutes, he’s one of the Oiler bloggers I respect the most and I take his opinion seriously. In a way, he’s absolutely right. How bad does it look to be trading a player picked first overall for a second or a B level prospect just four years after picking him? Yikes. Bad teams do things like this, folks.
Is That Fair Value?:

To be honest, getting a second round pick or a B level prospect is likely an underpayment for Nail Yakupov. I don’t think he’s a top line player, but he’s a top nine guy when placed with a skilled center and he’s got some great offensive tools, mainly an insanely good one-timer.

Yakupov has his negatives too, mainly that he is inconsistent, weak defensively and is a mess away from the puck. Not to mention, he doesn’t fit in a bottom six role and hasn’t produced like a top six player. Outside of his strong rookie season under Ralph Kruger, he has struggled as an Edmonton Oiler, no other way to put it.

That all said, the value really isn’t that far off. In fact, we can point to a trade that now Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli was a part of when he was in Boston with the Bruins for a comparable.

The Connolly Angle:

At the 2015 NHL trade deadline, Chiarelli traded two second round picks to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for F Brett Connolly. Connolly was the 6th overall pick in the 2010 NHL draft and was labelled as a terrific goal scorer when he went into the draft. His skill set and Nail Yakupov’s were very similar.

Connolly had never made it to the NHL on a full-time basis before the 2014-15 season. He went 31-32-63 in 71 AHL games in 2012-13 and went 21-36-57 in 66 AHL tilts in 2013-14. Those are good but not great numbers in the AHL for a former top ten pick. When he was traded by the Bolts in 2014-15, he had played in 50 NHL games that season and posted 12-3-15.

In 57 NHL games this season, Nail Yakupov has posted 7-13-20. Edge in points goes to Yakupov, while Connolly was the better goal scorer. Nail Yakupov, should his Oilers career end in three games, has a more established NHL resume than Brett Connolly did at the time of his trade.

All things considered, both players were strong goal scorers in junior who didn’t develop as expected for their NHL teams. If Peter Chiarelli is looking for a comparable for Yakupov, then this should be it.

Maybe I’m under estimating Nail Yakupov’s trade value, but I would be happy with this return. All things considered, this is the expected return in my eyes. Two second round picks from a team like New Jersey, Carolina or Buffalo.
Holding Out For More?:

Interesting quote from Pierre LeBrun on Tuesday, who suggests that the Oilers will hold out for what they perceive to be fair value.

LeBrun/Yakupov: “The #Oilers are ready to bring this guy back to camp next fall, unless someone steps up in June w/ a quality offer…” 1/2

— Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) March 29, 2016

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

LeBrun/Yakupov: “… and that means a young player that can play in their NHL lineup.” #Oilers 2/2

— Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) March 29, 2016

The Oilers clearly believe that Nail Yakupov is worth at least an NHL roster player, preferably a younger player. If that is the case, it may be worthwhile to look at other prospects who need a change of scenery and target them (Jonathan Drouin, Alexander Khokhlachev, Jimmy Vesey’s rights, etc.) as potential options.

Final Thoughts:

The Oilers will hope for an NHL player, as evident by the LeBrun quote, but it is also apparent that NHL teams don’t value Nail Yakupov that highly. Judging by past moves and perceived value, I think two second round picks should be the expected return for a player like Nail Yakupov at this stage.

His trade value is low and his production has been minimal these last three years. Hope for a roster player, but expect multiple picks in return for Yak.

This is a player who simply is not as valued around the NHL as he is by Oilers fans and bloggers.