Want to know what expected value is? It is the probability times the value of the outcome. So if we want to figure out what the record of the Giants is going to look like this season, we can (a) estimate the point spread in each game (b) convert that to a percent probability from the corresponding moneyline odds (c) add up the individual games … for the final record of the Giants this season.
0 pt favorite = 50%
-3 = 60%
-4 = 66%
-7 = 75%
-10 = 81%
-14 = 88%
at CLE, -7, so 75% moneyline odds
SF -13 = 87%
at Pitt = -3 = 60%
Dallas -4 = 66%
at PHL pick’em = 50%
BAL -7 = 75%
at AZ -6 = 72%
at WSH pickem 50%
PHL -6 = 72%
at DAL +2 = 43%
CAR -7 = 75%
at MINN -6 = 70%
You can dispute these lines, but they are generous guesses based on a growing sentiment that the Giants are regarded as the #1 team in the league RIGHT NOW.
The manager at a prominent Las Vegas Strip Hotel Sportsbook: “I think your numbers (lines) are too strong on the Giants. Though they crushed Seattle, lines generally don’t move much game to game without key injuries. The biggest mistake bettors make is placing too much emphasis on the last game. Before last week the Giants would not be favored on the road as big as you have them in most cases, hence 11-5 or 12-4. I feel 13-3 will be enough to get home field this year and yes, the Giants are capable if they remain healthy. 14-2 is not realistic.”
Even if there is one line or a few which are slightly off, it will not impact the net result significantly. Adding up the individual numbers yields 7.95, rounding to 8. The gmen are 4-0 currently, so the implied final record would be 12-4. That is a probabilistic best guess. You can easily make up your own math, saying there is no way the Giants are losing a particular game, so it is not 75%, it is 100%. But just remember the Bengals game for why there is no such thing as a lock on anything. “That’s why they play the games.” Does anyone here think 12-4 wins the division? I think it probably does not. This is a statistical guide to what things look like at this exact moment. For example, AFTER the games were tabulated, news came out that Newman has a sports hernia and may very well be out for 6 weeks, thus missing the first game coming up. By that point the Dallas defense can be vulnerable to the air attack and bump the odds a few points.
Summary: 12-4 looks like a realistic statistical mean based on expected value and ‘slightly’ aggressive from the sportsbook’s perspective.
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