Rebuild

The Giants need to rebuild in 2016. Realistically they must confront the brutal facts and not think ‘title’ in 2016. Blue simply has too many holes to fill.  Free Agency, while a powerful tool to help have-nots reset their rosters, is not the best approach when there are too many positions of need.

In 2014, the Giants filled a lot of needs with their biggest (economic/high profile/starter) push in Free Agency since it began in 1994. Despite getting a number of players who looked good on paper, it did not come together.  Holliday, Ayers, DRC, Thurmond, Demps, McClain, Walton, Schwartz and Jennings were all supposed to see meaningful playing time. The Giants spent ~$30MM on them in 2014 alone. But collectively it was a failure. Why? The answer explains why the Giants need to have a rebuilding mindset in 2016.

When a team has a lot of cap space and many holes to fill, a Free Agency spending spree is tempting but will likely not generate the desired goal- a championship.  The reason why is that championships are built on trust and shared suffering.  In football, playing hurt is a reality.  How hurt is the question.  Ask Justin Tuck about playing hurt through injuries in 2011.  The misery has to have a payoff.  Free Agents are not going to be invested in that payoff for a bunch of new teammates.  Likewise, veteran leaders and younger draftees aren’t going to be making that kind of commitment to a bunch of new high-priced mercenaries who may be gone in a year or two.  And just to prove that point, of the NINE higher profile Free Agents signed two years ago, only three (Ayers, DRC and Jennings) remain.  That is 1/3rd.  That is one reason why going wild in Free Agency does not pay off.

A second reason why a spending spree in Free Agency does not pay off is because of sheer turnover.  It takes time and chemistry for teams to come together.  Injecting a slew of new starters may look great (on paper) but these players are learning a new system and learning about their teammates that first year.  If you are an Offensive Lineman, subtle communication on blitz pickups or stunts has less to do with skill than “knowing” what your teammate is going to do to help you out.  The wrong decision means a pass rusher gets a sack, which kills a drive (or worse).  Turnover is a big factor in success.  The less, the better.  It was why we wrote back last May that we were not concerned with the Eagles being a threat in the NFC East in 2015.  They had way too much turnover at many starting positions, and that is precisely what happened.

Here in 2016, we find the Giants with too many holes and plenty of cap space.  This means rebuilding.  Just because the money is there does not mean it is there to be spent and wasted.  Of course Mara is going to yap about putting the best team out there to win it all.  He is a hawkster, and with his PSL program in tatters, he needs to fill that $1.7B stadium.  But the best thing to do is find a few good players with tremendous character, and forgo the rest of the high profile names.  Sign the 2nd/3rd tier guys who you know will be there in 2018. Keep some of the cap space unspent, roll it over into 2017, and once again add a few more names as needed.

Right now, I know more than a few of you are asking a very good question- what about Eli Manning?!  How can the team be thinking about rebuilding when Eli’s shelf life is evaporating?  The answer is that Eli arguably has ~4 years left in the NFL at a reasonably high enough level to vie for another title.  If you splurge in Free Agency again and <2016+2017> look like <2014+2015> , what are you going to say about that window that is closing on his career 2 years from now? The best answer is to methodically rebuild in 2016 so that 2017-2019 have Eli and the Giants building toward his last bonafide title attempt. 2016 has to be a reset so that 2017 is legitimate. Otherwise you can hammer 3 seasons by doing another reckless splurge.

Why does 2016 have to be written off?  I was predisposed to this path after the season ended.  Then, the answer came for me when the Giants released Schwartz and Beatty.  Goodbye went any chance at continuity and depth in the Offensive Line.  Yes, the Giants will have Pugh, Flowers and Richburg coming back. Everyone else is a stinkpile except Hart, who has some potential plus opportunity to ascend in the rotation.  Unless you get a really high character guy like a Kevin Mawae to inject into this unit, it is going to take more time.

On top of the exit of Beatty and Schwartz, the real reason for the 2016 rebuild is because of the defense.  JPP’s hand is still a question mark.  Prince Amukamara, while only a “3” solid starter, is nonetheless a loss (in terms of continuity) for a unit that had few good pieces to start with.  Ayers, Hankins, Kennard, DRC (if healthy) and Collins are the only ones that can make a meaningful contribution.  That means holes everywhere else.  Weak Safety, Cornerback, Nickel, Linebacker, Linebacker, Defensive Line, and another pass rushing Defensive End.  That is crazy weakness.  I’d like to be the first to be excited about Owa Odighizuwa, but let’s see if he can remain on the field.  He showed way too little in his first year to be even mentioning him seriously at this juncture.  This kind of honest, sober and brutally frank discussion was echoed by Vacchiano in the Daily News late last week.  Vacchiano reminded readers that Defense STILL wins championships.  Reese’s blueprint (if he even has one) of focus on offense first and defense as an afterthought has left this team in a position where rebuilding is not only realistic but mandatory. Do not misunderstand the point about Defense- no, this is still a passing league, but defense cannot be neglected either. In order to be competitive, your defense still needs to make the stop when it counts.

One last reminder is that the Giants also have need at Tight End and Wide Receiver.

Summary: There are simply way too many holes on this roster.  The Giants have plenty of cap space going into Free Agency, but investing in many high profile players to fill those holes will not likely yield the results the team needs.  The franchise instead should be putting together a plan which will allow Eli Manning one or two legitimate chances at a title in his last ~4 years with the team.  That plan starts with going after ~2 high profile players in Free Agency who have tremendous character and leadership.  Going after a slew of higher profile names will not produce a title unless they all have tremendous character. Avoid the candy of Free Agency and find 2 gems that can lead this team to a title in 2017-2019.  Draft well in 2016, repeat in 2017 and then make that push. It’ll be worth the wait of a year rebuilding.