It’s very nice to get a lot of high-priced toys for Christmas. Unfortunately somebody’s gotta pay for it. Last month we argued that this was not the path in Free Agency for the Giants. Obviously Jerry Reese has the polar opposite view, arguing that since the Giants lost a number of games by a close margin at the end of Q4, that they were very close. We contend (in that link, along with other arguments) that there are too many holes on this team to attempt to reload (for 2016), which is why they need to rebuild (for 2017+).
The Super Bowl is not won in March. To quote Bill Polian, the reality of NFL Free Agency is that you get ‘B’ players for ‘A’ prices. If you refer to the Free Agency primer we penned on Sunday, we knew there was going to be a whole lotta inflated spending going on. It turned out to be the Giants doing a lot of the inflating.
If you are busy in Free Agency it means you are not doing well in the Draft. Young hated Free Agency. Accorsi acknowledged its need and got McKenzie and Burress. But he used FA in mostly a supplementary capacity. Reese, on the other hand, has made big splashes in Free Agency in 2014 and now here in 2016. It is out of necessity due to a number of years of weak drafts.
Wonder: “I do not know what the Giants are trying to do. They do not appear to have any identity. Are they a Northeast tough team designed to play Defense and win in the cold in December/the playoffs? Or are they trying to be a prolific scoring team that outscores their opponent? They are accomplishing neither. Reese does not appear to have a gameplan. If you want to be prolific on offense alone, you must protect your QB. Reese obviously did not do this and has been playing from behind ever since. What kind of Defense are they trying to play? A conservative Tampa2 defense, or an aggressive Seattle-type Defense? We got both, and hence NEITHER.”
Janoris Jenkins is a good solid CB. He is an upgrade over Prince. But he is not a shutdown corner by any means. He is a ‘feast or famine’ aggressive player who gets burned occasionally. Wonder assessed him as a very good player, but he has signed for 12.5M per year, which is almost Revis Money. The tab for that bill will come due.
Olivier Vernon is a good solid DE. He is better than most starters, but he is NOT an All-Pro. Yet he signed for 17M per year, which is only 2M shy of JJ Watt Money. Or Suh Money. Insane Money. Vernon is neither Watt nor Suh. The tab for that bill will come due.
JPP’s contract for 10.5M includes 8.5M guaranteed. We had hoped that there would be (sack, etc.) incentives in that total, but there are not. So this is also too much money. To contrast, in October 2015, we praised the JPP deal because it was incentive-laden.
Damon Harrison signed for 9.2M/year. We really really like this player, but it is still not a cheap contract. Lol, it is “only” 30% more than what we deemed fair, which these days means it is still on Planet Earth. Yay.
These 4 contracts total ~$50M per year. OR ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF THE ENTIRE CAP. So the next question is how sustainable is this? It is not sustainable. In a couple of years the cap will break down and the Giants roster will get obliterated. Simply put, the remaining 49 players (in theory) can only earn 106M collectively, or about 2M per player. And what about Eli Manning’s salary? What will happen is that some of these players will have to be cut, and then that guaranteed money which these Christmas toys signed for will become dead money. How much is that? We do not know the exact structure of these deals, but what we do know is that (1) Harrison got 23M guaranteed, which is 50% (2) Vernon got 52.5M guaranteed, which is 62% (3) Jenkins got 29.5M guaranteed, which is 47%. If they do not cut these players at some point, how will they fill out their roster? And if they do cut these players, what dead money will be on their books? This is the price of Christmas in March.
The Giants are now counting on big increases in the NFL’s cap in future years. That may or may not happen.
We understand that the Jenkins deal is front-loaded, with less (“only” 7M) dead money on the back end. Even with this consideration, that just means the Giants have to pay dearly for his services at the beginning of the deal, and then he can walk (via a frustrated Giants team cutting him) if his services are substandard or he is hurt. I do not know his character issues at STL, but he had issues pre-draft.
There is a way to avoid cap pain later. Take Eli Manning’s contract and restructure it now so that you bring a lot of his back end up to 2016. Eli is a solid citizen who won’t abuse that. This way the Giants won’t be handcuffed later. But that would mean stopping earlier now and putting the breaks on “All In.” Too many holes to fill. Too many players to shop for. Too much locker room imbalance to create. Who’s the leader in there?
There was a great graphic on Twitter. NY Giants guaranteed money: 2010-2014 $85M…. Wednesday $105M.
2016 Free Agency for the Giants GM has nothing to do with being a good General Manager. This has to do with Reese going All In so that the Giants win 10 games NOW in 2016 and save his job. Does any of this sound familiar? This is what the Dan Snyder Redskins would do routinely, flipping from Free Agent Mania to Cap Hell from year to year.
This NY Giants blog hasn’t agreed with Big Blue View on more than a few items over the years. But Ed Valentine correctly points out that the Giants are overpaying because they can and because they are a losing team that has to pay more to attract the talent. Charles Johnson took 3M from CAR despite someone (allegedly the Giants) who offered 6M. And how much more did the Giants have to pay to sew up these players? Do you really think Vernon and Jenkins would have fetched the same kind of money without the Giants bidding? These two guys broke the bank. The Giants bank. For our team’s sake, I hope these guys have the character to match those deals. Historically that has not been the case.
By the way, we will see even more “notable” signings. Reese still has many other holes to fill. Free Safety. Will LBer. Mike LBer. OT. OG. TE. WR. He cannot do all of these in Free Agency but he is obviously not done. Cruz needs to take that pay cut (update- happened late Wed, this was well done because it is incentive-laden) to make more cap room, which will promptly be used to feed this 2016 All In season. It is leverage for the present, the future be damned. Are the Giants going to the Super Bowl? That is the required payoff, because otherwise you are sabotaging your future. If these 3 were burgeoning superstars, okay, we get that. They are not. They are good players who are getting vastly overpaid, the sum total of which is an enormous burden which will break the Giants bank in due time. Let’s hope they win the title this year because the clock is ticking for Reese and our team.
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