Wednesday Grab Bag 2.20 – Trade Deadline Edition

This week for Grab Bag, in lieu of the links (we’ll get back to that next week) we’re going trade deadline special.

Now, I don’t think the Pens are actually in on most of (or any, really because I don’t think they want rentals) of these names, but let’s have a little fun and create some scenarios where they actually are.

Let’s start.

Mark Stone – RW – Ottawa Senators – Cap Hit: $7.35M, final year of deal

The 26-year old Stone is entering unrestricted free agency following the conclusion of this season. In a contract year, he has 28 goals, 33 assists for 61 points in 58 games played. Well on his way to eclipsing his career-high of 64, achieved in 14-15. Chances are he’s headed for a big payday.

Now, there’s no guarantees Ottawa has him on the block as discussions remain “ongoing” whatever that may mean. They’re planning a rebuild, despite their owner’s continued idiocy, the hockey ops staff has actually done a fine job stocking up on young talent, draft picks and clearing cap space. They have seven picks (despite losing the potential first overall pick to Colorado in the Duchene deal) this year, 10 in 2020 and eight in 2021. If you take everyone on their team this year that will not be a UFA, they would be about $10M under the cap floor. Now, does their internal cap kind of handcuff them? Of course, but when you have young talent, cap space, a bevy of picks and a GM pretty committed to rebuilding, you can make some savvy moves.

One valuable piece in all of this – Ottawa can take on bad deals in the name of a rebuild. Hold onto your hats folks, here’s how we’re getting Mark Stone.

OUT:

Jack Johnson, $3.25M cap hit, four years remaining
Tanner Pearson, $3.75M cap hit, two years remaining

IN:

Mark Stone, $7.35M cap hit, final year of deal

$7M out the door, with just over $400K in cap space remaining for the Penguins, this $7M frees up just enough to bring in Stone’s cap hit. This also gives the Penguins flexibility going into next season as it will free up a shade over $7M in cap space.

Here’s the issue: Ottawa is going to want a king’s ransom for their three pending UFAs: Stone, Duchene and Dzingel. Not to mention, taking on a bad deal means someone else would have to be thrown in to entice them further. You’d likely have to say goodbye to one of Simon, ZAR or Blueger. The Penguins outside of a couple bad contracts and draft picks they likely don’t want to part with, don’t have much in the way of convincing Ottawa to come to the table. I’m sure GMJR has called, but he doesn’t have much in the way of leverage.

Mats Zuccarello – RW – New York Rangers – Cap Hit: $4.5M, final year of deal

According to Friedman’s 31 Thoughts this week, the Pens are listening in on Zuccarello. At age 31 and a reasonable $4.5M, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to inquire about the right-wing. He’s put up 11 goals, 26 assists for a modest 37 points. One would figure this would be a bit harder to pull off. The Rangers have already begun their rebuild. Unlike Ottawa, they aren’t looking to kickstart it, they’re looking to further it. So unloading a bad contract (Johnson) is likely out of the question.

Again, the Penguins will have to move out some cap to pull this off. With only $493K of space, some assets will have to be on the move.

OUT:  

Tanner Pearson, $3.75M cap hit, two years remaining
Matt Cullen, $650K cap hit, final year of deal

IN:

Mats Zuccarello, $4.5M, final year of deal

With two years remaining of control, and only being 26, Pearson could prove valuable to a Rangers team looking to go young. The whole “rings in the room” mentality could help the new crop of talent in NY plus he could be a good stopgap.

Plus, with Bjustad, McCann and Blueger as options, Cullen as 4C is about as expendable as it gets.

Again, much like Ottawa, the Penguins don’t possess a lot of leverage or enticement to bring the Rangers to the table. Like we said off the top, we’re having fun here and none of this is likely to happen.

Wayne Simmonds – RW – Philadelphia Flyers – Cap Hit: $3.975M, final year of deal

Oh yes, I’m going there. So did Friedman. Again, 31 Thoughts put the Penguins in the listening category when it comes to Simmonds, so let’s explore it.

I think, a lot of like they did with the Streit trade, they’re going to have to call in a fence so it doesn’t look like they’re trading with their most-hated rival.

Through 59 games, Simmonds has 16 goals, 11 assists for 27 points. He’s a bit overpaid, but given it’s the end of his deal and he’s 30, he was worth the just under $4M cap hit the past six years.

So, what do the Flyers want? Well, they’re going to be trying to retool. Given that the Carter Hart project seems to be years ahead of schedule, this puts them in an advantageous position to not have to tear everything down, but they definitely are considering taking out a couple walls and remodeling the living room and kitchen.

Trade One:

TO ARIZONA

Wayne Simmonds, $3.975M cap hit, final year of deal
Radko Gudas, $3.35M cap hit, one year remaining

TO PHILADELPHIA

Alex Galchenyuk, $4.9M cap hit, on year remaining
2020 2nd round pick

With a ton of young talent, a desire to get younger and moving out more cap space, the Flyers can put themselves into position to get younger and bring in a big time FA this summer to accelerate their re-tooling. They also add to all their draft picks, adding to the 17 they own over the next two years.

Trade Two:

OUT:

Tanner Pearson, $3.75M cap hit, two years remaining
2020 3rd round pick

IN:

Wayne Simmonds, $3.975M, final year of deal

Using Arizona as the fence, the Penguins flip a third rounder in 2020 along with Pearson to Arizona for Coyotes legend Wayne Simmonds. The power forward adds some muscle to the bottom six and a solid little depth scoring punch.

Those are the three I can envision happening, even if they are completely unlikely/unrealistic. The likelihood is low the Penguins will go for any big splash because, well, they don’t have a lot to offer right now, considering Rutherford’s desire to hold on to the first round pick.

I purposefully left Duchene off this list because I don’t think there’s any desire to pick up another center, we’re pretty well set there. Same goes for Carolina and Ferland. With Carolina’s resurgence, along with battling the Pens for a wild card, why help your direct competition?  

I also don’t have anything against Tanner Pearson, I just think he’s likely the most tradable asset at forward.

Numbers

Standings

Now that we are into 2019, this section now includes the wild card races. In the interest of fairness (and my sanity) the four teams in the race for wild card will be included. Full standings can be found here.

Metropolitian

Atlantic

Wild card – eastern conference

Central

Pacific

Wild card – western conference

Player Statistics

points

Save percentage (20 GP or more)

What These Numbers Tell Us: Let’s talk about the Islanders, shall we? They’re five points up on the Pens, three up on the Caps and sit atop the Metro. Even having 35 wins, only three of those required OT. Are they riding a PDO wave? Yeah, probably. They’re second in the league behind Toronto.

While everyone will say, “Well, this isn’t sustainable.” They’re mostly correct, but here’s something we should also consider: maybe it’s not sustainable long-term and maybe it’s sustainable for a season or just a quarter of a season. Some seasons you just catch fire. For all we know they could ride this out to the Eastern Conference Final or they could burn out in the first round.

This is it, Tampa. You have the best goalie by SV%, two of the top five scorers in the league, they’ve scored 5+ goals 25 times and they’re all but guaranteed to win the President’s Trophy. Plain and simple, you have to win the Stanley Cup this year or it’s a MASSIVE failure. Not to mention Paquette and Point are RFAs and three of their seven rostered defenseman are UFAs come July. They have $1M in cap space to deal with at the moment, maybe $4M if the cap increases to 80. Sure would be a shame if you lost in the conference final again.

Hey, Western Conference…will you just let your bad teams be bad?!

The Week Ahead

Tomorrow night is another chance for the Pens to test themselves against one of the best teams in the league. Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Jumbo Joe and the rest of the Facial Hair Brigade come to town. Given how tight the Metro/Wild Card race is, no-showing this time is not an option.

Know Your Enemy: Blades of Teal

Saturday night, it’s another goddamned outdoor game. Imagine watering down a spectacle so badly that you have me feeling “meh” about a Pens-Flyers matchup. Either do this shit at Beaver Stadium or kill the entire idea of the Stadium Series.

Know Your Enemy: Broad Street Hockey (They’re the only Flyers blog worth a damn.)

The week rounds out next Tuesday as we head to our little brother’s house in Columbus. It’s the day after the deadline, so by then we’ll know if Panarin and Bobrovsky are still on CBJ’s roster or not. Buckle up.

Know Your Enemy: 1st Ohio Battery

Big week. One of the best in the west then four crucial division points. Even of one of those games is a circus that no one really gives a shit about. No two ways about it, need at least four out of a possible six. Let’s ride.

Thanks for reading, follow me (or tell me how bad this was) on Twitter @SynonymForWet.