The significance of the disclosure that the Patriots’ 12 footballs were underinflated is very important to the NFL. Numerous attempts have been made this past week to belittle or cloud the issue about DeflateGate. Even the name gets mocked. But there is nothing trivial about these charges.
Let’s get some math out of the way. (This paragraph was updated Monday 1/26/15.) Some would like to dismiss the incident as weather-related. The balls got cold and shrunk. This is incorrect. There is a very simple equation called the Ideal Gas Law. It states that PV = nRT. For our purposes, since three of the 5 items in the equation can be considered constant, a corresponding reduction in Temperature will result in a proportional drop in pressure. But a drop from 71 degrees F to 51 degrees F is actually a change from ~295 Kelvin to 284 Kelvin, or a drop of 3.8%. This means that the minumum legal pressure in a football, 27.2 psia (12.5 psi), would only drop to 26.2 psia (11.5 psi) . 11 of the 12 balls had ~10.5 psi. So clearly, pressure was let out intentionally since only half of the drop in pressure could be accounted for from the temperature. (The 12th ball also was underpressured.)
The next issue is whether a reduction in pressure of that magnitude can make a difference. Mark Brunell, former 3 time Pro Bowl QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars, demonstrated along with former Pro Bowl RB Jerome Bettis that they could not only determine which ball was underinflated (amongst 3 unmarked balls) but why it made a difference to the QB… a BIG difference to the QB. “The advantage is the grip. I can dig my hand into this (football).. with this ball I can throw it further. I can throw it more accurate. It’s a huge advantage,” said Brunell. Bettis also noted how a ball carrier will not fumble the ball as easily once he has possession.
The third item is Brady’s knowledge or lack of knowledge. Fran Tarkenton, the Hall of Fame QB and original NY Giants #10, was unequivocal in his belief that Brady knew exactly what a properly-inflated football feels like. “Quarterbacks are obsessed with the ball… Tom Brady knows exactly what that (over/properly/underinflated football) feels like. The rule is you got to have it at 12.5 pounds.” He called the press conference with Brady “garbage,” implying that it is completely inconsistent for an NFL Quarterback with that kind of tenure to not know what was going on with the condition of those footballs. Mark Brunell, an analyst with ESPN, completely agreed and went as far to say that Brady lied:
“I did not believe what Tom had to say,” Brunell told host Trey Wingo.
“Those balls were deflated, someone had to do it,” Brunell added, “and I don’t believe there’s an equipment manager in the NFL who would, on his own initiative, deflate a ball without the starting quarterback’s approval.”
The fourth item is Bill Belichick. Whether Belichick knew directly or not is irrelevant. Why? Because the Head Coach and GM of an organization sets the tone and culture of an organization. No one in the NFL has a stronger control of his own organization than Bill Belichick. He’s the one who makes the rules and sets the standard of integrity. For the Patriots, integrity has always been something other people worry about. This is the organization of SpyGate, where Belichick was fined $500K and the franchise lost its #1 Draft Pick in 2008. We heard about the story from Mike Francesa on WFAN a number of years ago how former St. Louis Rams players strongly believed the Patriots stole information that helped them in Super Bowl XXXVI in January 2002. This NY Giants blog noted this 3 years ago, way before DeflateGate.
The fifth item is the argument that since the Patriots won 45-7, the outcome was not going to change, underinflated footballs or not. This argument is specious, because the “-Gate” suffix from which all scandals have since been named was marked by the same conditions. Richard Nixon won the election of 1972, carrying 49 out of 50 states. Using the same logic, should Watergate have been dismissed since Nixon would have won without the illegal effort/knowledge to gain advantage? Of course not.
The sixth item is the significance of this incident. Yes, the NFL will go on. Yes, it’s only sports. And yes Tom Brady, this isn’t ISIS. But integrity matters on every level. When NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell handed out BountyGate punishment to Saints Head Coach Sean Payton, he said: “We are all accountable and responsible for player health and safety and the integrity of the game. We will not tolerate conduct or a culture that undermines those priorities. No one is above the game or the rules that govern it.” We carefully struck through “player health and safety” to emphasize that without upholding the rules, integrity is lost.
Goodell is very close to Robert Kraft, the owner of the Patriots, so it will be interesting to see what actions are taken. The footballs were significantly underinflated to give Brady an unfair advantage. It was the AFC Conference Championship. This incident cannot be met with handwaving away any consequences. The Patriots head coach has a documented history of rule-breaking and his organization needs to be disciplined to uphold the integrity of the game. Fines? Belichick, Brady and Kraft will not be impacted by monetary fines. They’ll write a check. You have to hit this organization where it hurts. The balls were significantly deflated. That’s the evidence, and it is not an accident for all 12 balls to be underinflated (11 of them significantly). Any story about a lack of knowledge of the balls being underinflated has been blown up by Tarkenton and Brunell. I would be surprised if the NFL rules on this before the Super Bowl. Suspensions and lost draft picks are needed. Anything less will be an affront to the Colts, the other 30 teams, the NFL, its fans, its corporate sponsors and even the long term interests of the Patriots themselves.
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