The Edmonton Oilers have a number of key veterans who will be able to test unrestricted free agency this summer. Chief among them is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has been with the club since June of 2011 when the Oilers made him the first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft.
For the first time in his career, Nugent-Hopkins can test the market this summer, as his seven-year, $42,000,000 deal signed in September of 2013 comes to a close.
Back in October, the Oilers and Nugent-Hopkins had contract extension conversations, but they were too far apart and were unable to come to a deal. On Tuesday, the nearly five month silence ended as Oilers GM Ken Holland spoke with Nugent-Hopkins’ agent Rick Valette. The conversation comes less than a month away from the 2021 NHL Trade Deadline.
TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reported that the sides had a “lengthy” conversation on Tuesday regarding a potential extension. Rishaug also reported that, at this time, “nothing is imminent” between the sides but that they “plan on keeping an open dialogue” ahead of the April 12th trade deadline.
Would The Oilers Move RNH?:
If the Oilers were out of the playoff chase, the answer to this would be yes if the sides weren’t close on a contract extension. That would probably also be true for pending UFA defensemen Tyson Barrie and Adam Larsson. That’s not the case, however.
The Oilers are currently third in the North Division and sit five points up on the playoff cutline as of this writing. While they are far from a lock for playoff positioning, they are in a solid spot. It’s hard to imagine the Oilers moving a proven top-six forward for futures while they sit in a playoff spot.
On top of that, both sides have been very open with their intentions. Nugent-Hopkins has made it clear that he wants to remain with the Oilers, while Holland would also prefer to get a deal done.
The COVID-19 financial landscape has made things more difficult, however, as it is hard to imagine the veteran forward getting much of a raise in a flat-cap world.
That’s the long way of saying no, the Oilers won’t move Nugent-Hopkins unless they completely fall out of the playoff race.
Finding Common Ground:
Nugent-Hopkins has had a strange season thus far. The possession numbers are actually solid, as Nugent-Hopkins has amassed a 53.65% Corsi For and a 53.40% Fenwick For in 446:24 at five-on-five this season. The Oilers are also getting 52.37% of shots when Nugent-Hopkins is on the ice, and have a 57.51% xGF%. Those are all solid numbers.
The issue? Those numbers aren’t resulting in goals for the Oilers when Nugent-Hopkins is on the ice. RNH is seeing just 46.67% of goals go in his team’s favor while on the ice at five-on-five. He’s a -4 on the season, and has seen his production dip at five-on-five.
Overall, Nugent-Hopkins has scored 23 points (10 g, 13 a) in 31 games this season. That’s solid production overall, but most of it is coming on the powerplay. Five of Nugent-Hopkins’ ten goals have come on the powerplay, while nine of his 13 assists have come with the man advantage,
On the powerplay, Nugent-Hopkins has scored 14 points (5 g, 9 a). At five-on-five? Just nine points (5 g, 4 a). That’s not $6,000,000 player production, especially with Connor McDavid as your center.
(Stats via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference)
That makes finding common ground more difficult. Nugent-Hopkins isn’t going to want to take a pay cut to, say, $5,000,000 per season. The Oilers, rightfully, aren’t going to want to pay a player who is declining at five-on-five somewhere in the range of $7,000,000.
Both sides make good cases. Nugent-Hopkins has been a good player for a long time in Edmonton, and deserves to be paid for his production over the years. The Oilers, with a cap that won’t be increasing, can’t afford to pay complimentary players big salaries that could hamper them moving forward.
Perhaps common ground is a three-or-four-year deal worth $6,000,000 – $6,500,000. I think that would be an overpay on Edmonton’s side, but also believe the team would agree to that deal if it were to be presented in the lead up to the trade deadline.
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