Know Your 2016 Friends: The New York Mets

We’ve looked at the rest. Now, hopefully, we’ll look at the best. Opening Night is here, so let’s look at the good guys: The New York Mets.

In terms of mere days on the calendar, this was a very short off season. It seemed like Wilmer Flores struck out to end the season, and when I woke up it was Thanksgiving. But in many ways, this was a long off-season. Long with the memories of that Flores strike out. That Duda error that the Royals had as that very last detail in their scouting report. The Cespedes jaunt away from first base. The error by the second baseman. The Familia quick pitch. All moving backwards at warp speed over and over again until finally, April 3rd arrives on the calendar. But not before the excrutiating wait to see where Yoenis Cespedes was going to be forced to sign with because the Mets didn’t want him. But then they did sign him which made the clock drag slower because now you knew that you wanted Opening Night to get here as quickly as possible.

Key Additions: Neil Walker-2B, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Antonio Bastardo-RP, Jim Henderson-RP, Alejandro De Aza-OF

Key Departures: Ruben Tejada-SS, That Second Baseman Over There-2B, Tyler Clippard-RP, Bobby Parnell-RP, Michael Cuddyer-LF, Juan Uribe-IF, Kelly Johnson-2B, Kirk Nieuwenhuis-OF, Anthony Recker-C, Darrell Ceciliani-OF, Eric Young-OF

Key Players Who Never Left But We Didn’t Know It Because They Were Injured By Either Baseball Activities Or Freak Accidents: Josh Edgin-RP, Jerry Blevins-RP

Key Players Who Kinda Left But Came Back Because Who Wouldn’t Want To Play The Outfield Behind That Pitching Staff: Yoenis Cespedes-CF

Here’s the way I see this season in a nutshell, and I’m not going to overthink this: The starting rotation is the starting rotation. Matt Harvey is in that magical second year removed from TJ surgery, and he’s throwing his slider again. He’ll be fine. Jacob deGrom will be spectacular some nights, and on most of the nights where he doesn’t have it, he’ll gut through. Noah Syndergaard is being compared to Nolan Ryan when he’s not making it rain in Chicago.

Anything Steven Matz gives you which is head and shoulders above mediocrity is a blessing from the fourth spot in the rotation. So your rotation is set.

The lineup? I’ve always believed that a presence like Cespedes makes the rest of the lineup better. It was proven the last two months of the season (no matter what certain people might say, and I know exactly who you are.) But here’s the thing: This season, the entire key to the lineup being a great one instead of a good one is David Wright. Because here’s what happens: If Wright stays healthy and productive from the two hole, then you get Cespedes in the three hole doing what he does. Then, when Cespedes hits doubles, Lucas Duda will more often than not get walked. (And when Cespedes hits singles, then Duda will smack a bunch of gappers and get his average up … I agree with Keith Hernandez that he could approach .280 or even .290 this season.) That leaves a lot of meatballs for Neil Walker with runners on first and second. Then you have Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to clean up whatever is left.

If Wright can’t answer the bell health-wise or productivity-wise, Walker probably moves up to the two hole where he has spent most of his career. Still okay, but Conforto, d’Arnaud, Flores is a little dicier than Walker, Conforto, d’Arnaud at 5-6-7. And let’s face it, a healthy David Wright with protection behind him gives the Mets a lineup that could produce close to the level of the 2006 team. And if that’s the case, this division could be a runaway train.

The bullpen scares the bejesus out of me, as it scares the heck out of everyone who roots for this team. Can Jeurys Familia put together another season like 2015? Will Antonio Bastardo a legitimate lefty out of the pen, or will he be Rich Rodriguez? Will I ever trust Addison Reed? (Probably not but I’ll leave that question open ended for fun.) Will Hansel Robles ever get a tough righty out? Will Josh Edgin and Jerry Blevins experience good health? Is Jim Henderson for real? Now let me ask you another question: When have the Mets ever gone into a season where you didn’t worry about the bullpen? 1987, when Roger McDowell and Jesse Orosco were coming off stellar seasons? 2007, when Aaron Heilman was something other than chop meat? Any other season you can think of?

I seriously see Jim Henderson and/or Bastardo as the keys to all of this. Henderson had a great spring, and if he can keep this up and … perhaps … be good enough to be the eighth inning guy (remember, he was a closer in Milwaukee not long ago), then that frees up guys like Reed and Robles to be specialists for either side … and even Bastardo could be massaged to face more lefties than righties in that seventh inning if he carries over his bad spring to the regular season. Then whatever you get from Edgin is a bonus, while Blevins does what he does if he can come back from injury.

If Henderson reverts back to his mean, then he’s basically nothing more than a specialist, and that’s where you have problems in the pen, because everybody is a specialist behind Familia. Henderson and Reed against the righties, Robles, Blevins, and Bastardo against the righties. Bastardo is probably the closest thing the Mets have to a crossover guy behind Familia, and even he walks more righties than he does lefties. So if one of Bastardo and Henderson can be the eighth inning guy then that helps the Mets. Frankly, I don’t trust anybody else in that pen to be more than specialists … yes, even Reed, who I didn’t trust when he was the White Sox closer.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/712293640387829760

Then of course, there are injuries. Injuries which are inevitable because they happen every year and … of course … because the Mets wound up on a Sports Illustrated cover. But here’s the thing, this team with its stacked rotation and deep lineup are built to withstand injuries. Gone are the days of 2012 where “if everything goes right then maybe this team can be kinda sorta in the hunt in September and play some meaningful games.” If everything goes right with this roster, the Mets are going to the World Series again. If a couple of guys get hurt for a while, there are contingency plans that don’t involve sacrificing virgins, gathering religious leaders to do a rain dance, or Lucas Duda playing the outfield.

Prediction: First Place … 93-69

There was a blog post recently that took the vibe of “I’m terrified of the 2016 season.” I get the sentiment. If you’re a Mets fan, and you’ve been a Mets fan for a good long while, then you get the sentiment too. It’s easier to be the hunter than the hunted. But honestly, which would you rather have, a season with a roster good enough to have expectations, or a season where you’re staring down the barrel of 75 wins, irrelevance by June 30th, and Jason Bay’s baseball corpse batting cleanup? I’m not scared of the Mets failing. What scares me more is the Mets succeeding and not being able to enjoy it. Last October was one of the most bizarre months of my life. The Mets were in the playoffs, but there were too many damn distractions. Some linger on still. Baseball is a great distraction from distractions. So is blogging. I hope … and I can’t wait … to indulge more in both, starting tonight. So strap in, and don’t be terrified. This is only going to be as fun as you and I make it. So let’s have some fun, win or lose.

But, you know, winning is more fun.