Colorado at Edmonton

Avalanche lead series 2-0

After dropping both games in Denver, the series shifts to home ice where the Oilers hope to flip the script. Through 2 games the Avs have been the stronger team, and coming off of an impressive performance in game 2, where they shut the Oilers out while displaying their quick strike, high octane offence once more.

The Oilers will be hoping that some home ice advantages help turn the tides in their favour, from the definitive tactical leverage of last change to the less tangible boost from a raucous home crowd. No doubt the Oilers will be leaving their best on the ice tonight, as the difference between trailing a series 2-1 versus 3-0 is substantial.

From a fan’s perspective, the concern might very well be that the Oilers have already been giving it their all, and that some of the attrition inherent to the postseason begins to rear its head. Nurse has been on for a staggering 10 of the 11 goals the Oilers have conceded, in part due to demanding matchups, questionable offside non-calls, and most of all what is likely an injury lingering from late in the regular season that saw the Oilers top defender miss time. Draisaitl may or may not have improved to the point where centring his own line is possible, but whether or not he’s healthy enough to be at his best is another question altogether. Yamamoto is likely out after the questionable hit delivered by Landeskog.

Surely there are an untold amount of ailments we are not privy to at this point, but regardless the Oilers have no choice but to make due. Perhaps with last change the Oilers will employ a different looking lineup, especially considering the injuries. Maybe we’ll see the Oilers go with 11 forwards and 7 defencemen, as Woodcroft has deployed effectively in the past. Maybe we’ll see an intriguing young talent injected into the lineup, like Dylan Holloway. Either way, despite how strong the Avs have looked, momentum could just as quickly swing in an equal and opposite direction.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Edmonton:

1. Transition Defence. The Oilers have given up far too many chances off the rush over the past 2 games. Colorado is fast and talented, no doubt, but to give themselves a chance the Oilers need to limit the frequency they are conceding these prime opportunities.

Colorado:

1. Composure. The Avs can’t get complacent or let their foot off the gas. Having already conquered their 2nd round demons, the years of frustration have given way to the unrelenting drive that has propelled the Avs thus far.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Edmonton: Despite lingering issues and missing morning skate I am guessing that both Draisaitl and Nurse.

Kane — McDavid — Kassian

Hyman — Draisaitl — RNH

Foegele — McLeod — Puljujarvi

Ryan — Shore — Archibald

Nurse — Ceci

Keith — Bouchard

Kulak — Barrie

Smith

Koskinen

Colorado:

Landeskog — MacKinnon — Nichushkin

Lehkonen — Kadri — Rantanen

Newhook — Compher — Burakovsky

Cogliano — Helm — O’Connor

Toews — Makar

Byram — E. Johnson

J. Johnson — Manson

Francouz

Annunen

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Edmonton:

At some point, the Oilers embraced the lawlessness of the postseason, producing a reel of feisty and physical play that straddles the grey area of legality. It is a testament to the lessons the Oilers have learned and applied, to see highlights of McDavid initiating the type of interference that other teams used against him in the past.

While this is a positive development, as with most things in life, balance is key. The Oilers can’t afford to forsake offence altogether against such a high level opponent.

We’ll see what the starting lineup ends up being, and how much those get shuffled throughout the game, but it is a particularly poignant message considering Kassian’s move to the top line. Most fans might suggest that his play has been more akin to a healthy scratch than a top line winger, but Kassian does have some experience in this spot, and quite honestly McDavid might be capable of carrying this line regardless.

Moving Kassian up instead of other lineup regulars allows the Oilers depth to maintain some integrity. Keeping Hyman and RNH, and their chemistry, together give Draisaitl a lot to work with.

McLeod and Puljujarvi have both continued to contribute, although their icetimes have been quite slim. Both could jump into the top 6 and have been quite good in doing so this season.

With the less than stellar play he’s delivered in the series, more and more fans are calling for a clearly injured Nurse to recuse himself from the lineup. That likely will not be the case, but throughout the playoffs Nurse’s minutes have clearly been limited, as one would think in full health he’d be averaging closer to 30 minutes a night than 20.

As such the other pairings have had to pick up the slack, in particular Barrie and Kulak, with Barrie even leading the blueline in icetime. In all the Oilers did a solid job against the Avs, but even the briefest of lapses are more than enough for the Avs to take advantage, as we saw in game 2.

Colorado:

The Avs top 2 lines have been stellar. There isn’t much to say other than it’s a group that is highly skilled, but also quite balanced as each player brings a variety of strengths.

The further down the Avs lineup one goes the more the focus on team speed is evident. Newhook figures to work his way up the lineup in the coming years, but certainly fits in with the speed of Burakovsky, Cogliano, Helm, and O’Connor.

Makar might very well be the foremost challenger to McDavid’s unofficial title as best player in the world, and in some ways his best is yet to come. Toews is a fantastic partner who can handle top minutes in his own right.

Byram, at the time of their drafts, might have just as much upside as Makar. Although it’s quite a lot to live up to there is little doubt that Byram has the ability to be an impactful defenceman if he can stay healthy.

Similar to their forward group, the bottom of the lineup is a clear thesis statement on the Avs team building philosophy, as speed up front is mirrored by size on the back end. Both Johnsons were high draft choices, and although the veterans have an obvious physicality, they have some offensive skills as well.

The Oilers found out the hard way that Francouz is a good goalie, quite honestly the main issue with him has been one of availability rather than ability. With the team playing so well in front of him there’s no reason to expect that Francouz will keep the Avs from victory.