I’m sure you saw Saturday’s news that Juan Soto has turned down a massive yet deferred contract offer from the Washington Nationals. As a result, the Nationals have indicated that they will listen to trade offers for Soto. Now, what I’m about to lay out for you is speculative as to how this is going to all play out. So don’t take it as gospel, but give me the chance to give you what this means for the Mets and for the rest of baseball, the way I see it.
How Does This Affect The Mets?
It affects the Mets because I truly believe that the Mets have set up their team, their organization, and their salary structure to acquire Juan Soto … in three years. Look at all the contracts that expire by the time Soto becomes a free agent: Scherzer, Canha, Escobar, McCann, Walker (after 2023) … the only two players on the hook for big money contracts in 2025 are Francisco Lindor (obviously), and Starling Marte ($20 million in the final year of his contract in 2025). They will probably sign Pete Alonso to a big money contract. Perhaps they extend Jacob deGrom. But I think the Mets, after years of stripping their farm system for spare parts are taking the road that the Dodgers took: Overspend now while the farm system regenerates, and when the farm system is ready, supplement it with the right pieces in free agency instead of trading the pieces again. Juan Soto is probably the rightest of right pieces to add when he is a free agent, when he will only be entering his age 26 season.
But now that the Nationals are putting out feelers as to his trade value, I’m not sure the Mets can afford to wait. I’m picturing Billy Eppler walking briskly through the Mets’ offices to get to a meeting with Jonah Hill to figure out what the hell to do, freaking out all of the ticket representatives.
Can The Mets Still Play The Waiting Game Until 2025?
It’s really tough to say, because you would think that a player like Soto would want to be a free agent. Good players get one crack at free agency and most players would want to have that chance, especially a player like Soto who will be hitting free agency so early in his life. Considering that Scott Boras is his agent, it’s a safe bet that Soto wants to have that free agency experience. You generally don’t hire Boras if your goal is to re-sign with the team he is already with.
Editors’s note: Yes, I know that Stephen Strasburg is the exception, but re-signing probably wound up being the best possible outcome for Strasburg/Boras. And it also proves that no matter who your agent is, the player is still the boss of the player and ultimately calls the shots.
As far as teams are concerned, the list is probably limited as to which teams can not only entice the Nationals with a Grade A prospect haul, but then have the money to entice Soto into signing a crazy Tatis-like 15 year deal on the spot so that he doesn’t miss being a free agent. So the Mets might be well served to wait, keep their prospects, and add Soto in 2025 when Steve Cohen can empty the bank and bring him here.
But this is where the Mets might be looking side-eye at the Yankees. They haven’t made that “huge Yankee splash” in a long time. And Joey Gallo is a black hole for them. Would they all of a sudden become the Yankees again and empty the farm for Soto in a season where, even though they started the season an obscene 62-26, they could always use that last piece to solidify them as the team to beat in all of baseball? They had five prospects in the Top 100 to start the season. Would they say “the hell with it” and give the Nationals all five for Soto, then sign him and keep him until the end of time? (For reference, “Volpe” was trending on Twitter on Saturday afternoon, and you could probably figure out why.) If there are back alley conversations that tell the Mets that indeed the Yankees would do that, them Eppler needs to think about giving the Nationals their own haul of prospects, and yes that includes Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez (all in the Top 100 prospect list as well).
Editor’s Note: The Dodgers have six prospects in the Top 100, and they’re the damn Dodgers so you always have to discuss them as well.
Can the Nationals Legitimately Ask For That Much?
Sure they can. Let’s put it this way: Soto turned down $44o million without blinking an eye. He knows his worth and Scott Boras knows his worth. They know that Soto can get a better deal than $29.3 million per year with deferred cash, so they’re going to bet on themselves, and it’s a bet that’s more like betting on red than betting on 00 at the roulette table.
And if he’s worth that money, then he’s worth the prospects. If the Mets were the ones to engage seriously with the Nationals, they are definitely asking for Alvarez to be the center of a deal, and any deal that doesn’t include him is probably a non-starter. And I’m not sure, realistically, there’s a deal out there to trade for Soto that doesn’t include Francisco Alvarez.
Yeah, Maybe Not Realistically … But What About In Fantasy Land?
There’s one scenario that I could see where the Mets could possibly land Soto without giving up Alvarez, provided that they felt they couldn’t wait for 2025 to get him. And believe it or not, it involves that infamous Instagram post. You know the one, where he had a picture taken of him at Citi Field and said how much he loves the city, and media outlets used it as a hint that he wanted to play for the Mets? Yeah, that was ridiculous.
But what if they were unwittingly on to something?
What if Juan Soto really does want to play for the Mets and nobody else? (And yes, you could really say this about any team in MLB but let’s use the Mets because they’re who we write about.) Well, his options are limited as he’s still in his arbitration deal and he really doesn’t have a lot of recourse to pick and choose where he wants to go. But he does have one recourse.
If Soto did have a favorite team that he would forgo free agency for, perhaps he uses his agent to make that clear to teams out there that if you’re not his preferred team, then he won’t sign long term with you. Would a team empty the farm for 2+ years of Soto pretty much knowing that he’s going to hit free agency? Tough sell for a club to do that and risk the Soto years as being just slightly more successful than, say, the two seasons that Kevin Durant played with the Nets. It would all have to be done behind the scenes and in back alleys and under tables, and it’ll probably make Soto look like a jerk depending on how much of these conversations come to light in public. But if Soto makes it clear that he’ll sign with the Mets long term and nowhere else, that the price comes down, because then the Mets have leverage. Then the Mets can offer the farm minus Alvarez and hope for the best.
The bottom line is that this is where the Mets have to depend on intel from the Soto/Boras camp. Depending on the amount of red herrings that are thrown out by them, this could be tricky. But it’s absolutely necessary.
How Does Last Night’s Draft Come Into Play Here?
By itself, probably not much. The Mets took four players in the draft, including a catcher, Kevin Parada out of Georgia Tech at 11, and a 5′ 8″ high school shortstop named Jett Williams at 14. People who know the draft much better than I do that work for MLB Network say that overall, the Mets did very well. I’m sure some people would look at the fact that with all of the rumors surrounding Soto and Francisco Alvarez the Mets took a catcher with their first pick, put two and two together and then go on the internet and say the following:
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
By the way, have I told you that when a social media post starts with these stupid 👀, I intentionally don’t read it? It’s like when a team puts out a press release saying that the team has a “very important announcement” at least 24 hours ahead of time, it’s always … always to announce something really stupid like a corporate naming rights change or a new flavor of ice cream. “👀” to me reeks of “very important announcement”. So when I see 👀 on the Internet, it’s always followed by a conspiracy theory.
So now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, here’s my conspiracy theory (at least I admit it): Look, the Nationals can demand Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, and the works if they want to. They have every right to do so. But my thought is this: What would the Nationals be getting Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos into? That team, with the contracts that won them the 2019 World Series title or followed up the 2019 World Series title rotting from the inside out, is going to be terrible for a while. I’m not sure bringing in prospects that are ready now will help them as much as prospects that come up, say, in 2024 or 2025 might help them. How do you bring in a big fish like Francisco Alvarez when you already got Kelbert Ruiz from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer deal?
Might it make more sense for the Nationals to ask for prospects that will be ready a little later while you take a year to step back and flush away some of these contracts in the meantime? In return for taking prospects that will be ready a little later, maybe they can shed the salary of Patrick Corbin? This is where the Mets new found financial strength kicks into gear. The Mets aren’t going to get Soto for nothing if they take back Corbin’s contract. But perhaps they can make a Soto deal after the 2022 World Series and give them, say, Parada and Williams from this year’s draft, perhaps one of the second rounders they chose last night, Alex Ramirez, who is the Mets’ fourth best prospect according to MLB and number 87 in the Top 100, their choice of either Baty or Vientos, and perhaps Matt Allan. Is that enough in exchange for Soto and shedding the Corbin contract?
Editor’s Note: Remember that you no longer have to wait a full year to trade draftees. You can now wheel them after the World Series, thanks to Trea Turner.
So Now That You’ve Embarrassed Yourself With These Ridiculous Suggestions, What Is Actually Going To Happen?
The honest prediction here from me is that Scott Boras is the overriding factor here. Any player who hires Boras knows what he’s about, knows what he’s good at, and knows fairly well that they’re good enough to hit free agency and command a good price. I don’t think the consortium of Soto and Boras is going to waste a once in a lifetime opportunity to be an unrestricted free agent at the age of 26. I also don’t think that the Nationals would want to risk a Marlins scenario where they simply trade Soto for a lesser package and salary relief (it didn’t work out so well for the Marlins with Giancarlo Stanton.) As such, I think this will all play into the Mets’ hands as they can keep Alvarez, Baty, Ramirez and the rest, and add Soto to them in 2025 rather than give them all to the Nationals to get him in 2022.
But with this weekend’s news, nobody can really be sure of anything. Best to keep your eyes open. 👀
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