The New York Mets are going nowhere this season, entering play today eight games under .500 and 10.5 games back of the second wild card spot. With that in mind, the Mets have planted the for sale sign on the front lawn, with General Manager Sandy Alderson telling reporters last week that his squad would be sellers at the trade deadline barring a drastic turnaround. That hasn’t happened as the Mets continued their pattern of fits and starts, teasing a turnaround by winning the first two games of a big series with the Colorado Rockies before getting bombed out of the third, falling behind 7-0 before fans could even settle in the seats. The Mets responded by losing again to the St. Louis Cardinals last night, firmly cementing the fact that they should be sellers. The problem is that the Mets may be a bit late to the party.
The market is clearly a buyers market since a ton of teams are looking to sell, meaning that the teams who get the best returns need to move their assets sooner rather than later. This is the opposite of how Alderson operates, typically taking his deals down to the last minute to try and either extract the most value for his players or reduce the cost of acquiring new talent. That approach has worked for Alderson in the past, when he held onto Carlos Beltran until the days before the deadline before flipping him to the San Francisco Giants for a pitching prospect named Zack Wheeler, but it won’t work this year.
Unlike previous seasons, the Mets don’t have a top quality trade chip like Beltran or R.A. Dickey to stockpile a ton of assets. The Mets’ best trade chip is closer Addison Reed, and they should be able to get a decent return for him. Other players who could be moved include outfielders Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, first baseman Lucas Duda, and infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. Aside from Reed, none of those assets will net the Mets a ton, so they should be aggressively trying to trade now while the going is good. That hasn’t happened, and teams have already started making moves while the Mets sit on the sideline.
The Washington Nationals kicked off the bullpen frenzy by acquiring two relievers from the Oakland A’s for Blake Treinen and two of their two top ten prospects. The Chicago Cubs gave up two of their top prospects and two others for Jose Quintana, and the New York Yankees have been hunting all over for help, including discussing deals with the White Sox for David Robertson and Todd Frazier. The Yankees have also been linked to A’s first baseman Yonder Alonso, Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi reports. At this point, it’s clear that the Yankees are looking for a first baseman and a relief pitcher, which happen to be two of the best assets the Mets are peddling.
The strange thing is that there have not been a ton of trade rumors involving the Mets to this point. This is not great when the market is starting to heat up, and almost any article you can find on the internet listing players primed to get moved at the deadline doesn’t list a single Mets’ player. Perhaps Alderson is holding his chips for a prime return, hoping that as supply dries up teams will overpay to get the piece they think they need to contend. With less than two weeks before the deadline, Alderson runs the risk of teams going out and getting what they need now, leaving him holding less valuable pieces and being forced to settle for lesser returns.
Reed will almost certainly be moved since almost every team needs relief help, but the best chance of maximizing a return would be packaging him and Duda in a deal with the Yankees. The Yankees have an elite farm system now thanks to their sell off from last season, and landing chips from that system would be a win for the Mets. Getting a guy like Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres won’t be an option for two players on expiring deals, but perhaps the Mets could land a player like infielder Jorge Mateo, who has reportedly fallen out of favor with the Yankees’ organization. Mateo was the Yankees’ top prospect at one point, but has since been surpassed by Gleyber Torres at shortstop and has dealt with disciplinary issues in the past. The Mets could take a shot that Mateo could improve with a change of scenery, potentially giving them a young second baseman to pair with Amed Rosario, a far better return than they could get by simply letting Reed and Duda hit free agency.
The case of Jay Bruce is an interesting one, especially since reports have started to leak that the organization is divided on trading him. Bruce figured to be a goner since everyone assumed that the Mets would shift Michael Conforto into a corner outfield spot for 2018, but given Alderson’s statements last week where he reaffirmed the Mets’ lack of emphasis on defense it looks more likely that Conforto could be the Mets’ center fielder next season. That would open the door for the Mets to re-sign Bruce, who has had a monstrous season in his walk year, rather than trade him for a potentially sub-optimal return.
Another issue could be Alderson’s insistence on needing to win his trades, which has been hinted at by league sources in the past. Alderson has a set value for his players and doesn’t like to just trade guys to get something for them, often waiting until he gets what he thinks is the better of the deal. That is an admirable quality when buying, but when selling Alderson should simply maximize his return to recoup some assets that the Mets have lost in recent years. The longer that Alderson waits to sell off his pieces, the greater the chances that the Mets are the ones left without a chair when the music stops.
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