Assessing The Situation

The Edmonton Oilers are falling short just 13 games into the 2013-14 NHL season. The team is 3-8-2 on the year, and can’t seem to find ways to win. Most nights we see the team out-play their opponent and actually look pretty good, but then find a way to lose the game. It’s frustrating, but not overly surprising .

Is the season over yet? It’s 13 games, so that talk is a little premature, but not totally untrue. Unless the Oilers really pick things up soon this season could be a lost cause before American Thanksgiving hits. As it already stands, a playoff birth is extremely unlikely. After all, the Oilers are last in the west for a reason.

There’s been some good and some bad for the Oilers so far this season. The bad? Let’s take a look at it shall we?

The Oilers roster is totally made up of the wrong mix of players. The Oilers are using six skill guys in their top-six, and that doesn’t work. They don’t have enough guys up front that can play a two-way game and that know how to win. It’s great to have skill, but there is such thing as too much skill, and that’s exactly what the Oilers have.

People talk about needing to add more sandpaper to the bottom six, but what Edmonton really needs is that veteran power-forward and a good two-way veteran forward. Defensively? They lack a few things, including a work horse. I broke the whole roster situation down in a more in-depth way here: http://www.theoilersrig.com/?p=1967

Another bad thing about the Oilers? The team’s goaltending. It’s been better the last week plus, but has cost the team four wins. The team should have beat Winnipeg, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Phoenix, and would have had they gotten NHL level goaltending. That would have Edmonton at 7-5-1 instead of where they are now. Pretty big difference isn’t it?

The Oilers defense hasn’t been very good either, and while it is better than last year it still isn’t very good overall. Ladislav Smid has been terrible this season, and has a corsi rating of 41.4%. Only one defender was worse than that last year, and that was Buffalo’s Mike Weber. Smid, normally a good defender, has struggled this season.

Justin Schultz has created a lot of chances, but has been awful in his own zone so far and honestly doesn’t look like he belongs on the blue-line. Nick Schultz? He’s been better, but hasn’t been very good at all this season. Andrew Ference has been what we expected so far, but has had his moments too. Overall, it hasn’t been good enough by the Oilers on the blue-line.

Up front we already talked about the mix, but there is more to it. Nail Yakupov, a major part of this team, has been a major disappointment to this point. He has three points and has seen a lot of offense die on his stick while giving up an alarming amount of chances defensively. The 4th line? It’s been brutal almost all year and has actually hurt the Oilers more than it has helped them.

The special teams has been the biggest disappointment to this point. The Oilers last season had both a top-ten PP and PK, but sit at the bottom of the league in both areas this year. The PP is especially alarming considering the amount of talent that the unit has. They are trying to make the pretty play and, in the words of Lars Eller, are playing like a junior hockey team. There’s no excuse for how bad this unit has been.

As for the PK, this one is on Dallas Eakins. He’s using a system that doesn’t look like it is working, and is heavily leaning on his skilled players to play on the unit. The Oilers lack reliable bottom six forwards, and as a result have to play the skilled guys in a position they shouldn’t be used in. To me, that’s on both Craig MacTavish and Dallas Eakins, and until it is fixed the unit will continue to leak chances and goals.

The good? Well even though the record would highly suggest otherwise, there has been some. The Oilers have found some good players in forward Marc Arcobello and defender Jeff Petry. I mention Petry because he is vastly underrated. Petry is the closest thing the Oilers have to an all around defender, and he is a guy that would be on any team’s top-four unit.

Arcobello has made the players around him better and is doing all the little things right. He knows how to get things done, and if he could just finish a few chances he would have some even more outstanding numbers.

Jordan Eberle has quietly put together a really good start to the season, with 10 points and a +1 rating so far, while RNH has 10 points in 11 games and has been much better defensively as of late.

David Perron has nine points and has been really fun to watch. He gets under the other team’s skin, creates chances and brings it every shift. He’s been a pleasure to watch so far, and that trade looks like it could be a total heist by MacTavish.

The Oilers are averaging 2.69 goals a game, which ranks them with teams like Ottawa, LA, Vancouver, Washington and Columbus, which isn’t bad company at all. Scoring hasn’t been bad to this point, it’s keeping pucks out of the net that has.

Those positives are reasons for optimism, while Oilers fans can also look towards returning players as a positive sign. Forward Sam Gagner is close to a return, and Oilers insider Bob Stauffer hinted that forward Taylor Hall could be back reasonably soon as well. Same goes for depth guys Ryan Smyth, Jesse Joensuu and Ryan Hamilton, who all make the Oilers roster better.

Add in Hall and Gagner, and the Oilers are a totally different team, while Smyth and Joensuu help with the PK and team defensive play. These guys might be better than any trade that is realistically out there for the Oilers.

For Edmonton, the situation is simple. They’ve played better than their 3-8-2 record indicates. They’ve been good enough to win more games than they have, but their situation is what it is. The Oilers have to start winning, and winning quickly. They have some winnable games coming up in November, and have to take advantage of it.

We’ve seen the Oilers have good months of October and fall off the map, hopefully this year is a little different. No matter how you look at it, the Oilers are in a tough spot right now, and need to start winning if they want to have a chance to save this ugly season. Hopefully a combination of getting healthy and having an easier schedule helps the Oilers turn things around. I suppose we can hope right?