Oilers Netminders – Stay The Course?

So I’ve been thinking about the Oilers goaltending situation lately, and there are still a lot of question marks finishing up this season and more importantly moving forward to next year. It’s been well publicized that Craig MacTavish has wanted to improve the goalie position since he took the team over last off season.

MacT tried like hell to get Cory Schneider from the Canucks before they ended up trading him to New Jersey. Instead he signed Labarbera to back up perceived number one Devan Dubnyk, although he stated publicly that even with Dubnyk he still wanted to improve the position. This then led to the signing of Ilya Bryzgalov and the trading away of Labarbera. Then one day in January we saw MacT trade Dubnyk to the Nashville Predators and then flip a third round pick to LA for the Professor Ben Scrivens.

That is where we stand today, and I wonder if there is more yet to come from the Oilers on the goaltending front but my gut tells me that the two goalies we have now are going to be the same two we see starting between the pipes to start the 2014/15 season.

Ben Scrivens is more than likely to sign an extension before seasons end, in fact don’t be surprised if something is announced before the end of the Olympic Break. But let’s look at what’s out there for free agent goalies this year and what it might cost the Oilers to have one of these guys.

The UFA’s

There are only four real big named free agent tenders this off season;

Ryan Miller:

A good goalie in his own right, he’s having a spectacular year with the struggling Buffalo Sabres. Even though his team is 30^th in the NHL right now he’s still putting up good numbers, he’s got a .923 save percentage and a GAA of 2.73, the GAA isn’t really that hot but on a team like the Sabres it’s the SV% that really tells the story here.

Miller has been rumored in trades for a while now, and has a no trade clause. He won’t come to Edmonton via trade so that make it almost a sure thing that he won’t sign with the Oilers in the offseason. Miller, is likely to end up with the St. Louis Blues IMO.

Brian Elliot:

From the team that Miller is rumored to be going to, Elliot is having a career year, he sits seventh in the league for GAA at 2.13 and has a SV% of .916 which is quite good. Elliot is currenty making 4.5 million per season and is going to get a raise to at least 5.5 million on his new contract.

With St. Louis after Miller because they are unsure of their goaltending going into the playoffs, Elliot is very likely to hit the market looking for a team where he can be a number 1 guy. Edmonton would probably have interest and if they do I’m sure they’ll be willing to pay Elliot what he wants.

Jaroslav Halak:

The other Blues goalie is also a free agent at the end of the season, his numbers are good too, 2.26 GAA and .913 SV%. But again the Blues are unsure of their goaltending going in to the playoffs. Also like Elliot I would imagine Halak will get at least a $1 million dollar raise on his current 3.75MM salary.

Halak wouldn’t be my first choice for the Oilers new number 1, he’s streaky and at time has trouble keeping the puck out of the net, he’s had one excellent playoff run with Montreal. But I wouldn’t be overly comfortable with him going forward as my number one netminder.

Jonas Hiller:

This man is going to get paid and paid big this off season. He’s having a good year playing on the Ducks, one of the best teams in the NHL. Every rumor you see about this guy has Craig MacTavish wanting Hiller in Oilers colours to start next season.

His numbers are similar to the above mentioned goalies, he’s got a SV% of .917 and a GAA of 2.34 this year, but he’s sixth in the league in wins and second in shutouts. Hiller has been steady the last two seasons, but there are some health questions that he brings as he has suffered from vertigo. Talking to a few people who’ve suffered from that particular condition in the past its not easy to come back from and the possibilities of relapse are high.

Sooooooo?

So let’s look at the options here. Scrivens when signed is going to bring in around $2-3MM/Year for a minimum of two years preferably three. If MacT then signs on of the UFA’s mentioned above for one of the prices mentioned above, the Oilers will then have roughly $7-9MM tied up in goaltending alone next season. That’s a whole lot of green your goalies, when that money would be better spent on the blue line.

What about Bryzgoalie? Bryz has been a bit inconsistent but his play lately is impressive. Since Scrivens has been brought in it seems there might be a healthy competition between the two. Why not, both of them are playing for contracts. If you can get Scrivens for three years at $2.5MM then why not offer Bryz 2 years at $3-3.5. The only reason I mention more for Bryz is that he’s proven, he’s been around and can probably get a bit more than that on the open market.

Then instead of $9MM, at the high end, gone on the goalies you’ve got maybe $6MM spent. Sounds a lot better, no? This may not be perfect but why not, if Craig MacTavish really believes in Scrivens then signing him and Bryz now to split time for the next few seasons until he has fully emerged as a number one may be the best way to go.

There’s another way to look at this too, the 2015 crop of free agent goalies is much better than it is this coming off season. Players like M.A Fleury, Ben Bishop, Antti Niemi, Craig Anderson, Cory Schneider, and Michal Neuvirth are all potential UFA’s.

So go ahead MacT. Stay the course with your goaltenders, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. It may not work out but there might just be a get out of jail free card on the other side.

Thanks for reading