The Right Ingredients

I have struggled lately to come to grips with the complete rebuffing of analytical analysis and the refusal of many MSM members, and fans alike, to admit that “fancy stats” have a solid foundation, application and future in the sport of hockey. I’m frustrated and I don’t understand the unwillingness to take that first step through the open door and into the new world order. I get that numbers can be confusing to some. Terms like corsi, fenwick and PDO are, so far, just the punchline to a joke for many. The message may also be skewed by some of the messengers though the intentions are true. But in spite of those factors, and like our parents always said, please try one bite. You may like it!

When I was a kid my Oma made some memorable dishes. They stick with me to this day, and only she could make them the exact way they have been indelibly burnt into my memory. The first of my favorites was braised (stewed?) red cabbage with apples and bacon and cloves. The head of red cabbage is chopped up like coleslaw. You put it in a stock pot with some apples, cored, peeled and sliced, some chopped slices of raw bacon, vinegar and sugar, cloves, salt and pepper. Then you cook it for a few hours on the stove. Next of my favorites was rouladen. She took some very thin slices of beef (from a roast), salt and pepper the slices, sprinkle on some onions, lay down a couple slices of bacon on top of each. Then you roll them up and skewer with some tooth picks, put them in a roaster with a little water and cook in the oven for a few hours. Once it’s cooked you make a gravy out of the drippings. Standard stuff, add some flour, maybe a few spices, heat it to a boil while stirring and let it thicken. Next was the spaetzle. Flour, milk, eggs, salt, pepper all mixed together and then cut into a pot of boiling water and boiled till they float. Put them in a bowl to serve and smother them in butter.

The smells that would waft from her kitchen were wonderful. Sitting down and consuming what created those aromas was even better. The cabbage was sweet but a bit sour, a hint of apple and clove and a slight saltiness from the bacon. The rouladen was excellent. You still end up with the flavour from the beef, but the fat from the bacon builds a complexity and leaves a wonderful salty/smokey flavour. The gravy is more of the same, but concentrated. Then the spaetzle. So simple yet so so delicious and satisfying. Think noodles but more substance, almost like a dumpling, but smothered in the gravy once on your plate. Now… I don’t know if I’ve peaked your interest or not but if I have… I suggest you make it. There’s a problem though isn’t there? I haven’t given you any quantities of the above ingredients. There’s no way you can understand it without quantities and instructions! Ha! To bad for you!

(You can just Google them, but it’s not going to be Oma’s)

I’m trying to demonstrate that you can never completely comprehend what makes up the end product only through the experience alone. You can devour the meal made by my Oma a thousand times, taste all the flavours, feel the love that helped make the food, know if something slight had changed in taste, if something was missing, tell if it was slightly over or under cooked. But you will never be able to completely relay exactly what made it work, the amount of the right ingredients used that made it so flavourful. You can talk about the feelings it gave you and speculate about the contents, but that’s it. Now what if you could track every move she made in making it? Record how much of this, and what type of that? Could you end up closer to knowing what is truly going on in that dish?

Clearly I’ve created a pretty loose analogy. But when you stop to think about it, it sort of sounds a lot like our experiences with hockey. Take last night for example. I really felt that game. The character of Ryan Smyth shone through. His teammates battled for him, Eberle and Nuge getting in an unexpected scrum to stick up for our hero. Parts of the game brought me to tears and it was memorable. But, this morning, can we total the emotion of the players to break down what actually happened? Can we remember every shot, pass and hit?

The human elements of a game are undeniably a factor in deciding who wins and loses in sport. Desire, confidence, effort, intimidation, et al. It effects every game, every season, and comes from every player. It all matters but how do you know which one has more effect? Wouldn’t you like to measure things to see what works and what doesn’t. Which players are responsible for driving “momentum”? Who is dragging down the results? We are now at a point in time where the information available gives us a clear view into the inner workings. Every move involving the puck is being tracked. In a sense we are being given the measurements of the ingredients that make up the game.

Hockey is of many moving parts. It’s not a fixed machine like an engine where A, B, C, and D only fit together one way. It’s organic and changes constantly. But there is a finite amount of actions that happen in a game along with rules that control them. Zone entries, zone exits, shots, missed shots, blocks, turnovers, passes. They repeat and repeat and repeat. It’s not always in the same pattern or within the same area of the ice or during the same game situation or by the same players, but they are all being counted in one form or another. And when you count something and then study and compare the numbers you can start to identify cause and effect. Meaningful patterns are discovered in the data and it can be communicated in a way that explains why and how. It’s analytics. And “believe” in it or not, it is real and has many applications.

I trust the information that is available. There is enough proof out there to say definitively that there are tangible applications for it. NHL teams are using it to analyse teams and players, although most often the evidence given by the masters of the game can be hidden in innuendo like the secrets of a great chef. I like to use the info available enhance my viewing experience of the game. When my team loses I want to know where they went wrong. I saw that turnover that lead to that goal but what happened before it? Did that fight really change the momentum causing the team to play better? Is the goalie really letting the team down or is it the reverse. Why is that player’s traditional +/- so bad? Is the team improving or are these wins just a blip of luck? Is that guy really a player this team needs? Who can they acquire that will fill this glaring need?! All of these things are being quantified and teased out of the data in one form or another. It frames the game and cuts through the narrative of an assumptive and, at times what seems like an intellectually lazy media.

There will always be traditional analysis of the game. We are drawn to the stories because we easily identify with them. But there is more out there! I don’t write this to argue with people about what is and isn’t valid. There is no argument to be made about lack of validity any longer, just what’s the proper use and context.

I hope you see something in this analogy that speaks to you. There is a recipe that makes up the game and people are deconstructing it, figuring out what amounts of the right ingredients are present. Continue to enjoy the stories of man, the tales of the experience and skill that blends the ingredients of the game we love, but realize we have never before had such an open book into why the end result succeeds or fails. What you are watching and reading can now be verified through the hard work of some very intelligent and talented individuals.

It’s all there waiting for you. Go ahead and take a bite;)

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