The Most Important Months Yet

The news cycle has died down, and we sit in a holding pattern. The weather is improving, the days still long, and the calender turning, soon from May to June. For four teams, the prize is near, for 26 teams including the Edmonton Oilers, the prize is far off in the distance, a myth that keeps fans, players and management alike fighting on.

Once the NHL playoffs end, the fun will begin, and the moves will start taking place. The entry draft sits on June 27th, and it is safe to assume that the moves will start then too. There will be a lot of desperation around the league. Teams like Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, San Jose, St. Louis, Washington and Pittsburgh will have tremendous pressure on them to improve, and big names could be moved.

For the Edmonton Oilers, these could be the most important months of a rebuild which began nearly five long years ago. The team went into a tailspin in the fall of 2009, and officially declared itself in a rebuild in January of 2010. Since then, the Oilers have put together a number of talented young stars and a good prospect pool, but have yet to turn north. Time is beginning to run out on this project.

Last summer, Craig MacTavish did a number of good things, adding Boyd Gordon, David Perron, Andrew Ference, and a lot of depth options both up front and on defense. During the season, he fixed an ugly goaltending situation with smart trades for Viktor Fasth and Ben Scrivens. Even with an improved roster on paper, the Oilers were worse in the standings, and finished 28th overall.

The team will once again pick in the top ten, this time third overall. They’ve picked in the seven spot or lower every single year since the 2010 draft, that’s now five entry drafts. It’s turn north or go home time now.

Why Now?:

The Oilers have already wasted the entry level deals of Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz while also wasting two years of Nail Yakupov’s entry level deal. That’s prime time for winning basically thrown out the window, and now you’ll have to pay for it, in money.

The Oilers “rebuild” was also supposed to be built in the model of the Penguins, Blackhawks and to a degree the Capitals. All three of those teams spent some serious time in the basement, but the Oilers are entering the danger zone, and will soon be in the basement for a length of time that rivals the Florida Panthers, New York Islanders, and now relocated Atlanta Thrashers.

As mentioned, this will be Edmonton’s fifth year in a row with a pick that maxes out at seven. The Capitals had three years in a row where they were close to the top, with a fourth thrown in there due to the lockout of 2004-05.

The Blackhawks had three awful years as well in a row, with the 04-05 lockout in the middle of that, while the Penguins had the longest stretch of awful, with four terrible seasons and the 2004-05 lockout, making it five picks in a row for them, basically what Edmonton is now.

The longest any team, from the successful group, spent in the top ten of the draft? Five draft seasons, that is where Edmonton is at now. If you go any further, you’ll be hitting the same territory that the teams you and I once laughed at hit, and still sit today.

Desperation has to be sinking in.

Is It Possible To Save It?:

I believe it is possible to save this thing, but this summer is going to be very important for that. The Oilers need to plug a number of holes and really show promise in turning north. I’m not talking about signing Cam Barker either, I’m talking about going out there and getting actual NHL help that can move this team forward. Every team on the above list did that, and that is when they turned north.

We’ve talked about the shopping list already this spring, and within the next month I’ll be bringing it out in full force. It’s an extensive list, and it is going to take a lot of hard working by MacT and friends.

It can be saved if at least 75% of that list is completed by the time MacT washes his hands of the summer dust and hands this thing over to Eakins in early September. That’s asking a lot, but there is a lot of work to be done with this team moving forward, and it must happen this off-season. The early careers of the core are quickly fading, and soon it could be gone.

Wrap It Up:

The Oilers have a number of holes on this roster that need to be filled, I’m not surprising anyone when I say that. It is unrealistic to expect the Oilers to simply get right into the playoffs next season, but things have to get better in Edmonton, because time is running out. We say it every year, we really do, but these are going to be the most important months of the rebuild.

The Oilers have yet to even sniff turning north in four, five, six, however many years, and are in danger of hitting Panthers/Islanders/Thrashers territory.

This summer will tell us a lot. Are the Oilers ready to commit to winning and bring in NHL veterans, or will they make the fatal mistake of again going all young and wasting another year on development and broken dreams? The next few months will tell us that decision, and will likely tell us the direction and course for this franchise for years to come.

There is a fork in the road, what direction will Craig MacTavish pick? These next few crucial months will tell us, and could also tell us the fate of this once glorified rebuild.

Tomorrow, we start an off-season target series, you’ll want to stay tuned for that.