Puncher For Puncher

Edmonton Oiler fans and people that cover the team seem to believe that a heavyweight fighter is needed in the line-up for this young team. The Oilers seem to agree as well, considering they used Luke Gazdic, one of the worst possession players in the NHL, as a regular forward this year, while also trading for Mark Fraser and claiming Steve MacIntyre off waivers.

MacIntyre retired, and many believe Fraser will be walking when free agency opens up in July. That leaves the tough guy, and RFA, Luke Gazdic up for discussion. There is no debating it, Gazdic can fight with the best of them, is a good character guy, and seems like an awesome teammate. That being said, the guy cannot take a regular shift at the NHL level, and that is really concerning.

The Oilers have to turn north this coming season, and having four effective lines is going to be a huge part of that. You can’t have a heavy defense fourth line with Gazdic on it, you just can’t.

Is there a happy medium here? A tough guy who can fight, protect his teammates and be the character guy that Gazdic is while also handling a shift and making and taking a pass? I believe there is, and he will be testing the free agent waters this coming summer.

He’s far from an ideal player, but if you really want a fighter on the roster, soon to be ex-Bruin Shawn Thornton could be the perfect guy for the job.

Why Thornton?:

Let me get this out of the way first, Shawn Thornton is not a perfect hockey player, he’s a fourth line tough guy that is a below 50% possession player. That being said, as I’ve mentioned above, the Oilers and most fans seem sold on having an enforcer in the lineup, and there isn’t a doubt he’s a better option than Gazdic.

Thornton has the ability to make and take a pass, a skill that is so important in today’s game, and one Gazdic doesn’t exactly possess. He has the ability to score between ten and fifteen points a year, which is decent production for a guy playing his role. He’s a decent player on the forecheck as well when he gets in there, and he usually makes the hit at the smart time.

Defensively, Thornton is not an ace, but is responsible and can play at a good fourth line rate. He’s not going to be a possession monster, but he’s going to be batting over 45% and closer to the 50% mark. That’s a big improvement over what the Oilers have been rolling out there the last few seasons.

He’s an older player, 36 now, and is starting to slow down, but from my eyes, he has another year or two left as a serviceable option, which could be the perfect bridge to Mitch Moroz, whom Edmonton seems to love as a prospect.

Maybe most importantly, Thornton can play a regular shift in the NHL and not be a huge liability. For his skill-set, he is a pretty decent hockey player, and can fend for himself. Again, that’s much better than the enforcers Edmonton has recently been employing, and would help a defense heavy Gordon-Hendricks duo on the fourth line.

Oh, and Thornton would likely come cheap as well.

Thornton Vs. Gazdic:

Luke Gazdic is the younger player, but is also the worse of the two. He really struggled this year, and that is highlighted in the numbers. Gazdic played in 67 games this year, a hefty amount for an enforcer, and struggled in I’ d say about 60 of them. He had a tough time generating any kind of offense, and defensively was a train wreck, he struggled clearing the puck and making passes, and was a turnover machine.

This is shown in Gazdic’s advanced stat numbers, as he had a terrible Corsi for percentage which clocked in at 36.8%, well below replacement level. Let’s be honest here, outside of toughness, we are dealing with an AHL depth player.

Thornton, as mentioned earlier, isn’t perfect, but his numbers are much better and he is performing like a legit NHL player. This past year, Thornton’s Corsi For percentage was below the break even mark, but was respectable at 47.7% in 64 games, while he clocked in a 46.4% in 12 playoff games (yeah, those things) this past season. That’s much better than Gazdic, and on par with most fourth liners.

Now, many people will say Thornton played with better teammates, and of course he did, but the Bruins fourth line and Edmonton’s projected fourth line next year are basically even. Boyd Gordon is a better player than Greg Campbell is, while Danny Paille is the better player of he and Matt Hendricks.

It breaks even, so Thornton’s CF% number can be expected to be in the same range on paper, although we know it will likely dip due to the severe zone starts he’d receive on the fourth unit.

The Oilers likely will want to deploy the fourth line as a defense heavy unit with severe zone starts,and while Shawn Thornton isn’t the best at it, he can handle that role and be the sheriff, while Luke Gazdic simply can’t.

(All numbers thanks to Extra Skater!)

The Verdict:

Yes, Luke Gazdic is younger, but after a number of years in the AHL and a full season in the NHL, he simply does not look like a player that will have a successful career in the best league in the world. He can fight and be a great teammate, but that’s really it. Shawn Thornton can do that and play a regular shift while not being a liability on the ice. There is a big difference between the players, there really is no denying that.

Sure, Thornton is getting to the end, but he’s got another two years in him, and will likely only be a bridge to the above mention Moroz, it really is an ideal situation for the Oilers.

Personally, I’d rather see a fourth line built like the Chicago Blackhawks bottom unit, and without an enforcer. I’m not Craig MacTavish or Dallas Eakins however, and based off of last season, it sure seems like both of those guys believe an enforcer is needed.

If that is the case, the Oilers might as well upgrade on the black-hole that was Gazdic last season and bring in a guy like Shawn Thornton.