There’s been some suggestion around the Oilogosphere lately that maybe the Oilers might target the first overall out of Florida. This is based, in large part, on Panther’s GM Dale Tallon’s willingness to talk trades.
There are a couple of possibilities here:
1. Swap picks (#1 for #3 with a sweetener)
2. Package something for the #1
In this first case, the Oilers would have to have a very strong preference for one of the top four players (Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl). This is not a year in which a single player (or a pair of players) dominates the top of the draft class (like the Crosby year for example). The top 3, 4, or 5 (depending on who you ask) don’t leave a lot of daylight between one another. If you are picking in the top 3 you are bound to get a very good prospect, one with arguably a very high chance of being the best player in the draft 5 years out.
The benefit of swapping picks in a year without a clear 1st overall is that the cost of moving up is presumably low. So, if the Oilers’ scouts do see a clearly superior player they like, a reasonable case can be made for pursuing a trade. The Oilers guarantee themselves their player and the cost isn’t astronomical.
The downside is that you are giving up something of moderate value (let’s say Gagner, or Klefbom) in order to try and game a chorus of voices saying the top 3, 4, or 5 are near equals.
In the second case, the Oilers are making a play to leave the draft with two big holes in their roster checked off. If they can land both Ekblad and one of the three top centers (Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl), they’ll have vastly improved the team’s roster depth and future.
The cost of acquiring the 1st overall, even in a modest draft year, is going to be steep. At minimum, it means having to build a package around one of the kids (probably Yakupov) or bundling together a variety of assets (say next year’s 1st and Schultz, or Klefbom).
Of the two ideas, I favor the latter, especially if the Oilers’ can package something together without giving up any kids (Eberle, Yakupov) or gold-plated prospects (I’m thinking of Nurse, Marincin and Klefbom). I simply don’t see enough daylight between the top draft eligible players to justify spending an asset to move up.
HOWEVER
A third option is even better.
For a long time now, we’ve known that top rated draft eligible defensemen all come with provisos about their development timeline and ability to actually reach their latent capacity. The last several years are a good example. Even in the best case scenarios––your top 10 drafted defenseman blossoms into a legit first pairing NHL player––you are going to have to wait five years or so for the pay off.
Let’s have a look at all the top 10 D drafted since 2006:
2006
Erik Johnson (1st OV, STL Blues) – just this season established himself as a top pairing D with the Avalanche. Established himself in year 2, top pair in year 8.
2007
Thomas Hickey (4th OV, LA Kings) – just this season establishing himself as a legit NHL D with the Islanders. Still being sheltered by the likes of Lubo. Established himself in year 7. Not a top pair.
Karl Alzner (5th OV, WASH Capitals) – a few years of solid middle pairing, legit NHL play. Still sheltered by Carlson and Green. Established himself in year 4. Not a top pair.
Keaton Ellerby (10th OV, FLA Panthers) – struggling mightily to stay in an NHL lineup. Picked up by the Jets (off waivers from the Kings, his second team). Year 7, still looking for work.
2008
Drew Doughty (2nd OV LA Kings) – near perfect right out of the box. Year 1, NHL success. Played the most TOI/60 5×5 of any LA D in year 1.
Zach Bogosian (3rd OV ATL Thrashers/WPG Jets) – established himself in his 2nd year after draft on a terrible Thrashers team. Still not an established top pairing D. NHL Player in year 2. Not a top pair.
Alex Pietrangelo (4th OV STL Blues) – currently a top pairing NHL D. Established himself as a legit NHL D in his 3rd year after the draft. NHL player in year 3. Top pair in year 4.
Luke Schenn (5th OV TOR Maple Leafs) – played in the NHL right away (a big mistake). Currently, struggling mightily in a highly sheltered role on his second NHL team. Fringe NHL player in year 1 and beyond.
2009
Victor Hedman (2nd OV TB Lightning) – played in the NHL right away. Has established himself as a legit top pairing NHL D in the past couple of seasons, still exhibiting development warts. NHL player in year 1. Top pair in year 4.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th OV PHX Coyotes) – top pairing D. Established as NHL player in year 2. Top pair in year 2.
Jared Cowen (9th OV OTT Senators) – Currently struggling mightily in a middle pairing role. NHL regular in year 2 (but struggling). Not near top pair.
2010
Erik Gudbranson (3rd OV FLA Panthers) – Currently performing well in a middle pairing role. NHL player in year 2. Not a top pair.
Dylan McIlrath (10th OV NY Rangers) – Still struggling to crack an NHL lineup. Not an NHL player in year 4.
2011
Adam Larsson (4th OV NJ Devils) – Currently struggling to stay in an NHL lineup. Veteran of 128 NHL games, demoted again to the AHL for considerable time this season. NHL tweener in year 3.
Dougie Hamilton (9th OV BOS Bruins) – Currently an NHL regular with the Bruins in a middle/top pairing role. NHL regular in year 3. Not an ideal top pair.
[note: Oilogosphere tipster @Woodguy55 pointed out to me that Hamilton played most of the season on the top pairing with Chara. They were each other’s most common D-pairing, playing over 660 EV minutes together. My rough indicator for “top pairing” was 5×5 TOI/60, which is the most reliable indicator of who a coach trusts. In that category, Hamilton ranked 5th of Boston D who played >30 games. While Hamilton played the most with Chara, he did not have as extreme zone starts or quality of competition (i.e., when Chara was playing without Hamilton, his load was heavier). Moreover, the long term injury to Seidenberg appears to have pushed Hamilton into a role not ideally suited for such a junior player.]Jonas Brodin (10th OV MIN Wild) – Currently playing top NHL pairing minutes, but is severely sheltered by Ryan Suter and had a shot differential drop from last season. NHL regular in year 2. Not an ideal top pair though he’s playing the role.
2012
The 2012 top ten is littered with D (8 of the top ten). Of the 8 picks, 4 have established themselves as NHL regulars (Murray, Reilly, Lindholm and Trouba). None are top pairing.
Reviewing the players
If we make a simple chart of the above players (excluding 2012), we get the following:
(click to embiggen)
We can see of the 16 D taken in the top 10 from 2006-2011, 5 remain NHL tweeners (some with a much better shot at becoming NHL regulars than others), 11 are established NHL regulars, of which 5 are currently top pairing D (6 if we include top pairing tweener Brodin). Of those 5, it took an average of 3.8 years to bloom into a top pairing D in the NHL (3.5 years if we include Brodin).
Alternatives?
What this review shows is that top drafted D, even in the best of cases, take time to flourish.
Expecting Aaron Ekblad to be any different is foolhardy. If (and that’s a strong IF) he turns out and grows into a top pairing D, we will probably have to wait 4-5 years to experience the shelter of his dominance on the ice.
Can MacTavish afford to wait 5 years, when Taylor Hall is ready to win now? Does he want to? I don’t think so.
So, let’s take another look at the Florida Panthers.
Recently, I made a case for Dmitry Kulikov. He’s young (23), performing very well in a middle pairing role, an RFA and is currently on the outs with his GM, so he’s available and potentially so at less than 100 cents on the dollar.
Consider this…
What are the odds that Kulikov is the better player than Ekblad over the next 10 years? I’d say they are about even. Kulikov lacks the sexy potential of a draft eligible player, especially one as highly touted as Ekblad. But, he’s NHL proven and young enough to still grow into a top pairing D.
Ok… how about this…
What are the odds that Kulikov is the better player than Ekblad over the next 5 years?
Or, think of it this way: What are the odds that Kulikov is the better player than Ekblad over the window of opportunity for Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov to win, i.e., while they are at their peak (mid 20s) and under long-term contracts (the next 5-7 years)?
It is almost inconceivable that Ekblad will be the better player over the next 5 years. The chance that he can establish himself as a legit top pairing D during the youth window of the Oilers’ prime forwards is slim to none.
Conclusion
This isn’t to say the Oilers should avoid Ekblad if he falls to #3, or that they shouldn’t try to acquire both the #1 and keep the #3 (or swap picks for that matter). Rather, it is to acknowledge the brute reality that Ekblad will not lead this team to victory over the next 5 years.
If MacTavish wants to win while the kids are still youthful and full of life, he better get himself a player that can play NOW.
So, if he’s talking to Tallon, his priority ought to be Kulikov, or Brian Campbell.
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