Late last week we started the off-season target series with a look at Sabres’ defender Christian Ehrhoff, a potential target for the Oilers moving forward. Today, we look at another potential trade target on the back-end, as we make a stop in Toronto and look at Dion Phaneuf.
Why Is He Out There?:
There is some serious soul-searching going on in Toronto right now, this coming after the third season in a row that ended with a crash and burn collapse by the Leafs. Brendan Shanahan has come in as President of Hockey Operations, and it certainly seems like he is looking to make a change in team’s core group. On top of that, Phaneuf does have a major contract that will kick in on July 1st.
What Does He Do Well?:
Phaneuf does a lot of things right. Yes, he gets criticized for making a number of mistakes, and is often called overrated, but overall this is a good defender, one that is an established top-pairing option at the NHL level. Dion is only 29 years old, meaning he still has a number of good years left in the tank, and is young enough to be a part of sustained success in Edmonton.
He’s got good size, and fits the mold of what Oilers fans love in their defenders, he is one tough customer who likes to play a physical game. He’s a defender that, unlike anyone else in Edmonton, can handle 20-25 minutes a night and not be out of place, and can handle the toughest opposition on a nightly basis.
Dion moves the puck pretty well, and has the ability to put up points. He logged 31 points in a down year this year, but had 28 in 48 games a year ago, and 44 points in 82 games during the 2011-12 season. He’s got a laser beam for a shot as well, and would give Edmonton an added element on the power-play.
Dion’s Corsi For % was bad this year, there is no covering that up. He clocked in at 40.8% this year, which is nightmarish. That being said, Dion was stuck playing on a Leafs that was one of the worst possession teams in the league, and carried around some boat anchor partners. While he hasn’t been at his best, the circumstances around him have not been ideal.
When he consistently played with Carl Gunnarson during the 2011-12 season, on another bad Leafs team, he had a 49.8% Corsi For %. That’s a pretty good number, and I’d imagine with a change of scenery and a better partner in Edmonton, this would be the Dion Phaneuf coming to the Oilers. Sure, it could be wishful thinking, but it’s more than possible.
Where Will He Play, and Where Should He Play?:
Like Ehrhoff, Dion Phaneuf would come to Edmonton and play on the team’s top-pairing, which is exactly where he should be playing. He’d be on the top-pairing in about 28 NHL cities, with the lone exceptions being Chicago and perhaps Phoenix. He’s a darn good defender, and is one of the few in the NHL that can handle big minutes and do a good job of it. This is a top-pairing guy, and he should be deployed as such.
What Will He Cost?:
The Leafs will likely ask for a lot, but the contract here could bring the price down a bit. Dion is owed $49 M over the course of the next seven seasons, which means the team trading for him would have to allocate $7 M in cap space each year for Phaneuf. If the Leafs aren’t eating any money, the price in assets will likely be lower.
An idea kicked around by Lowetide and talked about on twitter is Sam Gagner and the 3rd overall pick for Phaneuf and the 8th overall pick, which makes sense. The Leafs have always liked Gagner, and would be moving up to likely get one of the three centers at the top of the draft. That’s likely appealing to a Toronto team that’s been looking for centers forever.
Nail Yakupov and Jordan Eberle would likely be targets for the Leafs as well, but Gagner and the 3rd for Dion and the 8th seems like a really logical trade. I could also see Eberle for Dion and a second asset being a deal talked about between Nonis and MacT.
Closing Argument:
Dion Phaneuf is everything the Oilers don’t have on the back-end. He’s a 20-25 minute a night defender with size, puck-moving ability, a big time shot, and a knack for physical play. He’s not an elite defender, but he’s in the next tier down and he’s a very good player that needs a change of scenery.
I get a lot of Oilers fans don’t like the guy, but this is a good player that will immediately improve the Oiler defense in a big way. He’d be the best defender in Edmonton since the day Chris Pronger left town for Anaheim. (NO, I’m not saying Dion is CP44)
If this option is out there, and I suspect that it is, then Craig MacTavish should be looking at it long and hard. This could be a major piece of turning this team north that could come at a discounted price.
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