How many points will Connor McDavid Score

With the excitement building for Oilers fans toward next month’s NHL Entry Draft, it is natural for people in Edmonton to wonder how effective Connor McDavid could be during the 2015-16 season. Will he get 50 points? 100? What is his ceiling? I’ve always found using comparable players in comparable situations is the best when trying to ascertain a scoring range. With that in mind, I looked at the past ten drafts since 2005. During that time, 5 centres have been drafted with the first pick, including the player McDavid is most often compared to- Sidney Crosby. Crosby managed to score 39 goals and 102 points his rookie season. While I don’t doubt McDavid is on par with a younger Crosby in terms of skill, it is doubtful McDavid will manage 100 points during his first year in the league; there were no 100 point scorers this season and only 3 players have managed to push over the century mark in the past four seasons. In Crosby’s rookie season, there were 7 100 point players which is unheard of 10 years later. It is possible that McDavid could do it, but its not likely given the NHL’s current climate. So what is reasonable?

2014-15 NHL Scoring Leaders

Last season, the top point producer was Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars with 87 points. As you can see above, the top 5 scorers were in the 80 point range. I would expect based on his junior performance, McDavid’s career numbers will likely eclipse all of these players with the exception of Crosby, though it is not a far fetched idea to project that Connor could give #87 a run for his money career-wise. Also, in regard to the above, only Crosby and John Tavares are good comparable players to use when attempting to project McDavid’s rookie season. Both are centres and Tavares, like McDavid, was granted exceptional player status to enter the OHL early.

In the past ten drafts since 2005, 5 centres were drafted with the first overall pick. Here are their rookie seasons:

As you can see from the chart, Crosby is in a class all to himself. The rest scored around 20 goals and added in the range of 30+ assists. Without Crosby added, the average season for a centre drafted first overall looks like this:

With Crosby subtracted, the average season is 77 games, 22 goals, 32 assists, and 54 points. You may be thinking, “come on, McDavid is going to way better than that!” I would agree, but that is the average. Also, in terms of the Edmonton Oilers, if McDavid was merely average amongst his peers, he would have been the second leading scorer among Edmonton centre iceman last season:

However, Crosby’s number has to be part of the equation as McDavid, like Crosby, is said to be a generational player and has been an absolute beast in junior at a level that the other four players simply were not. So is McDavid a 26 goal, 38 assist, and 68 point player as the average season with Crosby added would suggest? I believe he should be at least that good if not slightly better.

So here is my prediction, based on the above, for what Connor McDavid will produce if he manages to play close to a full season:

80 GP, 26 goals, 47 assists, 73 points, 0.91 PPG

I imagine most of you aren’t thrilled with my prognostication and were probably expecting more. However, I am attempting to balance what has been done by players like Tavares and RNH with the prospect of a generational talent coming into the league during a lower scoring era. To be honest, I hope McDavid makes me look like a fool, but the odds are against him given the climate of today’s NHL. He’ll have the pressure of incredible hype going into next season, but I feel expecting 70+ points and just under a point-per-game is a reasonable expectation for an 18 year old super rookie in today’s NHL.

Think I’m off my rocker? Put it in the comments below!

Really Long Run to End MS

On May 23rd, I am running from Leduc to Camrose (82km) in a single day to raise money for the MS Society of Canada. I have MS and my hope is to raise money and awareness. If you are interested in learning more or donating, please visit www.reallylongruntoendms.ca.